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grantcart

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Member since: Sat Jan 5, 2008, 08:45 PM
Number of posts: 49,900

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Two of the three key elements in Nixon's removal have likely been met for Trump's removal


During the Watergate hearings I had a strong bout of Mononucleosis and was bed ridden.

I saw every minute live.

I still remember the electricity when Butterfield walked in and told the world that tapes existed.

There were three critical elements that created the momentum necessary to move Republicans to give Nixon the ultimatum to leave.

Those elements were:

1) An insider. John Dean

Without John Dean there would have been no impeachment or resignation. Dean turned and had a remarkably detailed day by day record of what Nixon's committee and administration did. The original crimes and the cover up.

2) An agreed metric

As claims and counter claims became more and more confusing Senator Howard Baker came out with a very simple metric that cleared the field and everyone, Republican and Democrat could agree.

"What did the President know and when did he know it"

Baker assumed that Nixon couldn't have been in on the early stages and offered this metric to create a line in the sand to help him. Because we had a common metric that everyone agreed to it cleared the field and clarified the essential question. It actually created the rational that would doom Nixon.

3) Documentation

Tapes.


I have been an impeachment sceptic because impeachment can't be a partisan move, we need a broader base to undo an electoral college result. That isn't an accident, its the way it should be as we don't want a Democratic President removed simply because the Republicans have the votes to do it. I didn't think we could hope for the insider and the documentation needed.

Then we have the whistle blower.

Unbelievably we have an insider to give witness to Trump's treachery. Not a political insider but an insider nevertheless. The fact that the insider is non political will be devastating. Could be better than John Dean as he or she is a high level dedicated career expert and will have highly developed analytical skills and must be very articulate to reach the senior level able to listen to Presidential conversations.

And we will have the documentation. We will have the tapes.

The only thing that is missing from the Nixon denouement is a common agreement on where you draw the line on "high crimes and misdemeanors".

We may get that but we have more than enough to get unimpeachable (irony intended) testimony and document facts. There will be no he/she said and the idiot in chief said.

We should not be inherently pessimistic about the Senate. If there is a clear and easy to understand charge about high crimes and misdemeanors there will be Republicans who will move on it. Not out of morality but out of self interest. When the Watergate hearings started no one believed that Nixon would be removed from office.

Nixon had a 23% margin of victory and a 520-17 electoral landslide. No one thought that Republican Senators would challenge their party leader who was swept into power with the greatest landslide in the country's history.

First there are two retiring Senators who will be more interested in how they fare in history than being on Trumps Christmas list.

Second removal of Trump doesn't give the WH to the Democrats. The Republicans retain it and it opens up the possibility of a Republican cage match for advancement. I believe that Romney will do anything to open up the ticket and give him his last chance to get to the WH. He would run as a moderate against "socialist Democrats" and would have the odd credentials to talk about strengthening the Affordable Care Act having implemented Romney Care in Massachusetts.

His obvious running mate would be Nicky Haley. They could denounce the aberration of Trump and launch a completely new campaign unrelated to Trump. That will be very attractive to a lot of Republican Senators.

We are going to have a majority vote for impeachment in the House.

We are going to have a trial in the Senate.

It will not be exactly parallel to the Nixon removal but I never thought that it would be this similar.

Impeachment and removal of Donald Trump is now very possible. Pence can pardon him if he wishes but he will face criminal prosecution in NY state.

The whistle blower has changed the landscape exactly in the same way that Butterfield told a stunned country that tapes exist that would confirm exactly what John Dean had alleged.
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