Mayweather vs Guerrero

May 4
At Las Vegas (Showtime PPV): Floyd Mayweather Jr. vs. Robert Guerrero, 12 rounds, for Mayweather's WBC welterweight title.


There are a number of good fights scheduled today, but only one that is of major significance. Whenever Floyd Mayweather, Jr., fights, it overshadows all other boxing matches -- including today’s heavyweight title fight. Floyd is boxing’s “pound-for-pound” best today; ranks high among the Great Sport’s all-time best; and is, like Jack Johnson and Muhammad Ali, a hero/anti-hero who transcends sports.

Again like Johnson and Ali, there has been a search to find a challenger capable of defeating the champion inside the ring. All three displayed uncanny defensive skills in the ring, which adds to the frustration when the top opposition is unable to do any serious damage of the type that could humble them. Indeed, when these three champions enter the ring, they attract an audience larger than the boxing community, or even the general sports fans. Floyd’s “pay-per-view” sales in a single fight provide him with more income than most great fighters earned in a career.

Tonight’s opponent may actually have the best chance -- at least on paper -- of defeating Mayweather, since his first title fight in April of 1998, when he challenged Genero Hernandez. Robert Guerrero is 31-1-1-2, with 18 knockout victories. He has won three titles in tow weight classes (featherweight and super-featherweight). He moved up in weight with a goal of challenging Mayweather.

Guerrero has been impressive at welterweight. Last July, he beat Jelcuk Aydin (23-0) by 12-round decision. In November, he dropped Andre Berto twice on his way to winning another 12-round decision. In that fight-- considered an elimination bout to determine Floyd’s next challenger -- Berto unexpectedly attempted to copy Floyd’s unique defensive style, and paid a heavy price.

Robert has had some difficulties in the ring. In 2005, Gamaliel Diaz decisioned him the twelve rounds, when Guerrero attempted to outbox him. (Six months later, Robert avenged that loss with a knockout.) And in 2010, he won a close decision over former champion Joel Casamayor, who was far beyond his prime.

Perhaps most significantly was Guerrero’s second “no contest.” In him March ‘09 bout against Daud Civo Yordan, an accidental clash of heads opened a cut over Robert’s eye. The referee believed Guerrero could continue in what was becoming a surprisingly tough fight, but Robert told the ringside doctor he couldn’t see well enough to continue. On one hand, it was a safe move on his part; on the other hand, it separated Guerrero from the great champions who never submit in the second round because of a little blood.

Physically, the two match up well. Both are 5’ 8” tall; Floyd’s 72” reach gives him a two-inch advantage. At 30, Guerrero is six years younger, and he has been more active in recent years. Floyd turned pro in 1996, Robert in 2001.

Mayweather is 43-0, with 26 knockouts. In title fights, he is 20-0, with 10 knockouts. In bouts against opponents who have held titles, he is 18-0, with 7 knockouts. Floyd has won seven titles, from super featherweight to junior middleweight. He has only lost a few of the 315 rounds he has fought as a professional boxer.

When the fight was made, my son felt that it would be an easy win for Floyd. I thought it would be a difficult fight. Floyd is getting older; his last fight (Miguel Cotto) saw him get hit more than he had been in his last five bouts, and Floyd’s connect percentage was the lowest on record; and it could be difficult for him to get up for Guerrero. Add to that, Robert is a very good fighter. He’s definitely coming into the ring at his very best tonight.

However, as part of the pre-fight build-up, Guerrero has done some curious things. The most obnoxious was appearing on the “700 Club,” and saying that God wants him to “humble” Floyd Mayweather. Since then, he has had press conferences featuring his minister, who also states that God is favoring Guerrero. I think that type of thing is enough to get Floyd’s attention, and motivate him in preparing for tonight’s fight.

I still think it will be a competitive, highly entertaining bout. Guerrero will attempt to overwhelm Mayweather. Robert is always in top shape, and can throw a high volume of punches for twelve rounds. He has good punching-power. And he is a “dirty” fighter, which will make the choice of referee important. (Of course, Victor Ortiz found out how Floyd responds to blatant fouls.)

I expect Floyd will win a decision. But it will be a tough fight, and as always, anything can happen in the ring.

Enjoy the fight!