LiberalFighter

LiberalFighter's Journal

April 18, 2016

Voter Registration Data (New York)

Democratic Outside NYC
(Nov 2015) - (Apr 2016)
2,460,070 -- 2,510,740 -- Active (+50,670)
_ 206,604 -- _ 210,598 -- Inactive
2,666,674 -- 2,721,338 -- Total

Democratic Within NYC
(Nov 2015) - (Apr 2016)
2,821,070 -- 2,757,691 -- Active (-63,379)
_ 290,716 -- _ 313,468 -- Inactive
3,111,786 -- 3,071,159 -- Total

Democratic State Total
(Nov 2015) - (Apr 2016)
5,281,140 -- 5,268,431 -- Active (-12,709)
_ 497,320 -- _ 524,066 -- Inactive
5,778,460 -- 5,792,497 -- Total

Republican Outside NYC
(Nov 2015) - (Apr 2016)
2,116,867 -- 2,140,518 -- Active (+23,651)
_ 131,733 -- _ 131,117 -- Inactive
2,248,600 -- 2,271,635 -- Total

Republican Within NYC
(Nov 2015) - (Apr 2016)
424,400 -- 414,478 -- Active (-9,922)
_46,330 -- _45,575 -- Inactive
470,730 -- 460,053 -- Total

Republican State Total
(Nov 2015) - (Apr 2016)
2,541,267 -- 2,554,996 -- Active (+13,729)
_ 178,063 -- _ 176,692 -- Inactive
2,719,330 -- 2,731,688 -- Total

April 18, 2016

Bernie is wrong about super-delegates:

This article was posted in the General Discussion: Primaries forum but does not appear to have been in this group.

Bernie is wrong about super-delegates: Why his tortured Dem Primary arguments try to have it both ways

1) MYTH: Statewide popular votes precisely determine the delegate split. This myth essentially goes like this: whoever wins the popular vote should’ve received a proportional number of overall delegates, even though that’s not exactly how delegates are distributed. Proportional, yes. But not according to statewide results. It’s like the difference between the electoral vote and the popular vote in the general.

So, contrary to the conspiracy theory that Hillary and Debbie Wasserman-Schultz are “rigging” the primaries against Bernie by awarding Hillary with delegates she didn’t earn, the rules for splitting delegates were approved well in advance of the primary season. In fact, there was plenty of time for Bernie Sanders and his advisers to familiarize themselves with the rules since the latest version was approved by the DNC back in August of 2014.

3) MYTH: Superdelegates are evil. We’ve all seen the garment rending. The superdelegates, they say, are anti-democratic weapons of the establishment — except when the superdelegates can be exploited to Bernie’s advantage. First, let’s get this out of the way: Bernie Sanders is a superdelegate. That not only means he’s part of the establishment, it also means he’s part of the anti-democratic establishment plot. Bernie supporters have made lots of noise about how the superdelegates will swing to Bernie when they finally come around to recognizing his momentum. Likewise, as we’ve already discussed here, the superdelegates should only support whomever won their state. So, given how Bernie only has 31 superdelegates, he’d have to pick off Hillary’s superdelegates ostensibly from states where Hillary won the popular vote. Put another way, you can’t be revolutionarily opposed to the establishment while also manipulating it to your candidate’s advantage.

And regarding the anti-democratic thing, the superdelegates have never once overruled the candidate with a pledged delegate majority.

April 17, 2016

Sanders and his supporters claim that he is boosting turnout. (2/10/16)

Voter turnout challenges Sanders’ recipe for success

The old political-science models, Team Sanders argues, are of limited use. Indeed, they’re stale and out of date, failing to reflect the kind of massive progressive turnout that Bernie Sanders – and only Bernie Sanders – can create.

This isn’t the entirety of Sanders’ pitch, but it’s a key pillar: the Vermont senator will boost turnout, which will propel him and Democratic candidates up and down the ballot to victory.

They argue Sanders has been boosting turnout yet there hasn't been any data proving their assertion. It seems they are just pulling it out of thin air. If his campaign would boost turnout it would show up in the primaries. And the numbers show that currently 2008 had a higher turnout than 2016 by over 6.2 million votes. Even if only Clinton and Obama are totaled for 2008 it is over 5 million more than in 2016.

What has happened is Hillary has received more votes in many of the 2016 contests then she did in 2008.

There are only 16 primaries and 4 caucuses left. 66% of the contests are over and time is running out. Where is the momentum? Why is Sanders' "resonating" message not boosting his campaign? Possibly because his message is not wide enough. They did not target a big enough slice of the pie.

April 16, 2016

Bernie Sanders Just Released His Tax Returns. (2014)

Tax Return Courtesy of Mother Jones

Items that caught my eye and wonder if they are questionable.

He claimed exactly $8,000 for charity (amounts under $200) with an additional $350.

$ 4,900 -- Business Income

$56,377 -- Itemized Deductions

Paid Preparer -- Self-Prepared

$9,666 --- State & Local Income Taxes

$14,843 -- Real Estate Taxes

$22,946 -- Mortgage interest

Tax Preparation Fees -- 204

April 15, 2016

Hillary would have to receive no more than 43.5% of the remaining delegates to lose.

If this were applied for the remaining primaries, Hillary would need to receive only

New York: 107 out of 247
Connecticut: 24 out of 55
Delaware: 9 out of 21
Maryland: 41 out of 95
Pennsylvania: 82 out of 189
Rhode Island: 10 out of 24
Indiana: 36 out of 83
Guam: 3 out of 7
West Virginia: 13 out of 29
Kentucky: 24 out of 55
Oregon: 27 out of 61
Virgin Islands: 3 out of 7
California: 207 out of 475
Montana: 9 out of 21
New Jersey: 55 out of 126
New Mexico: 15 out of 34
North Dakota: 8 out of 18
South Dakota: 9 out of 20
Puerto Rico: 26 out of 60
DC: 9 out of 20

April 7, 2016

It’s Really Hard To Get Bernie Sanders 988 More Delegates

After a trio of landslide wins in Washington, Alaska and Hawaii on Saturday — the best single day of his campaign — Bernie Sanders narrowed his delegate deficit with Hillary Clinton. But he still has a lot of work to do. Sanders trails Clinton by 228 pledged delegates and will need 988 more — a bit under 57 percent of those available — to finish with the majority.

That alone wouldn’t be enough to assure Sanders of the nomination because superdelegates could still swing things Hillary Clinton’s way in a close race, but put aside that not-so-small complication for now. The much bigger problem is that it isn’t easy to see where Sanders gets those 988 delegates.

It’s Really Hard To Get Bernie Sanders 988 More Delegates

Nate Silver shows what Bernie Sanders needs to get the nomination. This is just before the Wisconsin primary. Sanders was 2 delegates short of the target.

Nate's closing paragraph...

But things can change, and polls can be wrong — and so it’s worth doing the math to see what winning 988 more delegates would look like for Sanders. Call it a path-of-least-implausibility. If you think Sanders can meet or exceed these targets, then you can say with a straight face that you think he’ll win the nomination. If you think they’re too good to be true, then you can’t. Here’s the Bernie-miracle path I came up with:

Profile Information

Gender: Male
Hometown: Wisconsin
Current location: NE Indiana
Member since: 2002
Number of posts: 50,888

About LiberalFighter

Member since 3/21/2002. I have been interested in politics since the early 70's. I registered to vote by riding my bicycle to the nearest registration site while still in high school. The first time I voted was with my parents. By the general election, I was in college and voted absentee. During the Watergate hearing I was in college and watched the hearings. I have only voted for a Republican once. And it was due to the endorsement of the local union's political group. It was for the position of the county sheriff. I have never missed voting in an election. Both primary and general. I have voted in at least 69 elections. Political Science and History was my focus in college. I became more involved in politics in 1987 with the mayor's campaign helping at headquarters. It was at this time that I became a precinct committee person. In a couple of years I was involved in setting up the database for a congressional campaign due to Quayle becoming VP and Dan Coats was appointed as Quayle's replacement. I have attended many Democratic State Conventions and other Democratic fundraisers and events.

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