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Joe BidenCongratulations to our presumptive Democratic nominee, Joe Biden!

Sun Mar 1, 2020, 08:52 PM

 

538 just updated delegate projections, Bernie is plummeting, now under 25% chance to win outright

I think this might (not sure, but BS was higher earlier today) be the result of Pete dropping out

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primary-forecast/



If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Reply 538 just updated delegate projections, Bernie is plummeting, now under 25% chance to win outright (Original post)
Celerity Mar 2020 OP
LaurenOlimina Mar 2020 #1
Celerity Mar 2020 #3
honest.abe Mar 2020 #2
Celerity Mar 2020 #5
honest.abe Mar 2020 #6
Celerity Mar 2020 #7
honest.abe Mar 2020 #8
Celerity Mar 2020 #9
TwilightZone Mar 2020 #10
Celerity Mar 2020 #13
TwilightZone Mar 2020 #15
Celerity Mar 2020 #16
TwilightZone Mar 2020 #19
Celerity Mar 2020 #20
Sloumeau Mar 2020 #4
LizBeth Mar 2020 #11
TwilightZone Mar 2020 #12
Celerity Mar 2020 #14
TwilightZone Mar 2020 #17
Celerity Mar 2020 #18
Algernon Moncrieff Mar 2020 #21

Response to Celerity (Original post)

Sun Mar 1, 2020, 08:56 PM

1. Jesus, Biden fell as well.

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to LaurenOlimina (Reply #1)

Sun Mar 1, 2020, 08:58 PM

3. yes, let's hope Super Tuesday breaks hard against Bernie

 

Klobuchar and Bloomberg need to drop out and endorse Joe ASAP.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Celerity (Original post)

Sun Mar 1, 2020, 08:58 PM

2. Im pretty sure that was the same as earlier today.

 

He has not factored in Pete's dropping yet.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to honest.abe (Reply #2)

Sun Mar 1, 2020, 08:59 PM

5. look at my snapshots, they removed Pete real time

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Celerity (Reply #5)

Sun Mar 1, 2020, 09:03 PM

6. Yeah, but I believe those numbers didnt change.

 

I dont think he has rerun the delegate predictor without Pete. I believe all they did was remove Pete's name.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to honest.abe (Reply #6)

Sun Mar 1, 2020, 09:10 PM

7. yes, the last update was March 2, at 01 42 CET (my time, Central European Time ie 19 42 EST March 1)

 

so you are correct

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Celerity (Reply #7)

Sun Mar 1, 2020, 09:12 PM

8. It will be very interesting to see what happens once Pete out is factored in.

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to honest.abe (Reply #8)

Sun Mar 1, 2020, 09:13 PM

9. indeed!

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Celerity (Reply #5)

Sun Mar 1, 2020, 09:14 PM

10. Your snapshots are the same as the current data.

 

Pretty sure I looked at it earlier today and Sanders was at 1619. That's where he is now.

They removed Pete, but I don't think they've updated the projections. Also keep in mind that their projections consider that candidates might drop out, and it was pretty clear that Pete would be out soon.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to TwilightZone (Reply #10)

Sun Mar 1, 2020, 11:35 PM

13. yes, look at the long thread I had, you are correct, but now there is this

 

Election Update: Buttigieg Dropping Out Isnít Good For Sanders
And it may make it harder for anyone to reach a delegate majority.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-buttigieg-dropping-out-isnt-good-for-sanders/

Pete Buttigiegís decision to drop out of the race two days before Super Tuesday has hurt Sen. Bernie Sanders in our primary forecast. Sandersís chances of winning a majority of pledged delegates fell from 28 percent to 23 percent. And the likelihood that no candidate gets a majority rose slightly from 59 to 64 percent. Former Vice President Joe Bidenís majority chances were unchanged.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Celerity (Reply #13)

Sun Mar 1, 2020, 11:39 PM

15. Yep, I just posted that below a few minutes ago.

 

Along with an apology. As I noted below, I could have sworn that the numbers were the same, but they must not have been. Too much poll stuff all blurring together.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to TwilightZone (Reply #15)

Sun Mar 1, 2020, 11:41 PM

16. it so so damn fluid, and the already cast million plus votes so worry me

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Celerity (Reply #16)

Sun Mar 1, 2020, 11:44 PM

19. Yeah, I'm in Texas and reports are that early voting was pretty solid.

 

Sounds like there's some confusion in CA about what's really in so far, so hard to tell what will happen there. Of course, none of the polls will have time to reflect SC, so we really have no clue what will happen on Tuesday.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to TwilightZone (Reply #19)

Sun Mar 1, 2020, 11:46 PM

20. CA is going to be a clusterfuck, the Sanders crowd is already going bonkers over the NPP voters

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Celerity (Original post)

Sun Mar 1, 2020, 08:59 PM

4. Whoa, that is a big drop for Sanders,

 

and a small drop by Biden.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Celerity (Original post)

Sun Mar 1, 2020, 11:29 PM

11. Yea. Get behind Biden even if not a number one choice.

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Celerity (Original post)

Sun Mar 1, 2020, 11:31 PM

12. You were right - he did drop because Pete dropped out.

 

New update at 538. My apologies, I could have sworn the delegate numbers were the same earlier.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-buttigieg-dropping-out-isnt-good-for-sanders/
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to TwilightZone (Reply #12)

Sun Mar 1, 2020, 11:38 PM

14. lol, after I just spent half the thread admitting I was probably wrong too, lol

 

I am so confused, rolfmaoooooooooo

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Celerity (Reply #14)

Sun Mar 1, 2020, 11:42 PM

17. I noticed that they update different areas at different times.

 

For example, their summary of Super Tuesday states earlier today still showed Biden only up in one state, but if you went to the page with the individual states, he was up in six and later seven. They eventually updated the summary to reflect the changes, but it was really confusing in the meantime. The former hadn't been updated since the 28th, which is basically ancient history now.

So, maybe we were both right, but just looking at different things. Hell if I know! haha
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to TwilightZone (Reply #17)

Sun Mar 1, 2020, 11:44 PM

18. I wager Nate Silver gets little sleep these days

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Celerity (Original post)

Mon Mar 2, 2020, 03:27 AM

21. This dovetails with an analysis I saw on CNN last week

 

Basically, the theme was that a bunch of the Super Tuesday states (this was before South Carolina, to be fair) have three candidates that are viable in the ~15 - 25% range. Meaning that there are good odds for 3 way splits of the delegates in many of the states, thus raising the odds dramatically that "no one will win." This weekend has been news about Biden. Super Tuesday may very well be news about Mike Bloomberg.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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