Democratic Primaries
Related: About this forumHow do you think Hillary would do against Trump in 2020?
I think she would win.
But I understand it is a huge risk.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
leftofcool
(19,460 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Cha
(295,899 posts)from those who think they are!
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
The Velveteen Ocelot
(115,270 posts)I will say, however, that 2016 was full of unusual factors - the nomination of Trump, the Russian social media trolls, the Comey letter - that were unanticipated. This time, though, we know Trump will be the nominee (assuming he's still in office in 18 months); the Russian trolls will be out in force but at least we know they're there; and the Comey letter was a total black swan event that won't reoccur. So the landscape is very different this time and the outcome probably would be, too.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
StevieM
(10,499 posts)I can't imagine that there won't be another swift boating of some kind. And this time the GOP may have the entire DOJ at their disposal.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
rampartc
(5,263 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
The Velveteen Ocelot
(115,270 posts)But the thing about surprises is that because they are surprises there's no way to prepare for them. So you have to manage the things you can control in a way that ensures that the surprise won't derail you completely. I think one of the problems with 2016 is that nobody, including the pollsters, really thought Trump would win, so the damage being done by the Russian trolls was either not recognized or not taken seriously (and Hillary really should have campaigned hard in Wisconsin, PA and Michigan), so when the Comey letter came out it was just enough to do the damage it did. It probably wouldn't have been enough but for some of those other factors. You always have to campaign like you're behind.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
StevieM
(10,499 posts)She was with Al Gore in Florida, telling people it would be a close race, and reminding them that every vote can make a difference.
She spent more money in Wisconsin and Michigan than Barack Obama did in 2012. She had larger ground organizations in those states. And if you want to talk about where rallies were held, she held more rallies in PA than in any other state, in a tie with OH and FL. She also made a few stops in Michigan.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
The Velveteen Ocelot
(115,270 posts)but in her book she admitted she never visited WI after the convention and that she should have. Here in next-door Minnesota, a state that's usually hard-core Dem but which she won by only the slimmest margin, she visited once but her campaign seemed to have no ground game. I couldn't even get a lawn sign although I called around and stopped at a couple of party offices, and I saw very few lawn signs or bumper stickers even here in the People's Republic of Minneapolis. Nobody seemed to know what was going on. I have no way of knowing to what extent this was a factor, but I'm just saying that no candidate dares take anything for granted, and I'm hoping Howard Dean's 50-state strategy is implemented again.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
StevieM
(10,499 posts)People said she campaigned in states that were too hard for Democrats to win. Arizona and Georgia should have been conceded, we were told, even if she was leading in the polls. She should have given up on Ohio and Iowa sooner, they said. People even suggested the North Carolina, a state were she had consistently led in the polls, throughout the race, was not a place that should have gotten as much focus as it did.
Perhaps she should have scheduled some rallies in Wisconsin, but when you are way up in the polls you generally go to other states. And she did spend an enormous amount of advertising money there. Also, she did have a ground game in WI and MN. They knocked on countless doors, and made an enormous number of phone calls. I admit that I don't know what the situation was with lawn signs and bumper stickers in MN, but perhaps that is an area that could have used some improvement.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
The Velveteen Ocelot
(115,270 posts)I hope to see evidence of the 2020 candidate in my state this next time.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
AlexSFCA
(6,137 posts)unfortunately
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
susanna
(5,231 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Celerity
(42,645 posts)which bucks the historic trend for failed presidential candidates always increasing in favourability post-elections. This is, granted, 6 plus months old data, as that is the latest Gallup info I could find. I did find a more recent poll from Gallup as well that also seems to reflect this trend:
Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's favorability with U.S. adults is unchanged from last November -- remaining at a record low (36%).
https://news.gallup.com/poll/243242/snapshot-hillary-clinton-favorable-rating-low.aspx
Michelle Obama Ends Hillary Clinton's Run as Most Admired
https://news.gallup.com/poll/245669/michelle-obama-ends-hillary-clinton-run-admired.aspx
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
SFnomad
(3,473 posts)while the EC still ends up denying her?
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
AlexSFCA
(6,137 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
SFnomad
(3,473 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
NanceGreggs
(27,813 posts)
knowing, of course, that she wont run again.
But I think shed cream him. Given the same two choices, Im sure a lot of people would vote exactly the same but then again, a lot of them wouldnt.
There are a lot of Trump voters who have woken up the ones who have lost the jobs he promised to protect, those who are worried about losing their healthcare, those who are appalled by locking children in cages, those who have watched their taxes go up while taxes for the wealthy have gone down, et cetera. Thats why his disapproval numbers are where they are.
Simply put, given another choice between the two, there is NO ONE who would change their vote from HRC to Trump while there are MANY who would change from Trump to HRC.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
susanna
(5,231 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
bitterross
(4,066 posts)I feel pretty certain all the white women who voted for Trump would vote for him again. There is some sort of self-loathing there.
Please do not take this as me being a misogynist. I'm just commenting on what I see in reality. And I see a lot of white women who were indoctrinated from birth with the opinion that women are less than men. I see it in my sisters. They are the absolute stereotype of the the white woman in that Trump-voter age group who went to college to get their "Mrs." To find a man who would take care of them and tell them what to do for the rest of their lives - a replacement for their father.
Sure, I know the videos we see posted online of white women outside of Trump rallies talking about how a woman should never be President are edited to pick them. But they didn't have to interview too many women to get those clips. I think those videos are actually representative and not anecdotal.
I'm not a psychologist but there sure seems to be some sort of visceral hate for a very successful woman. Maybe it comes from some sort of jealousy they don't realize they have. Jealousy for Hillary's overcoming the repression. Women have certainly been repressed.
I don't see that demographic as having changed their opinion of Trump.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Cha
(295,899 posts)Votes with all the "hate of her" being bandied about.
No worries.. Hillary is Not running.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
bitterross
(4,066 posts)I volunteered for her. Stuffed envelopes and was totally excited we would have our first female President.
If you want to deny the truth, then feel free. It doesn't do a lot of good.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Cha
(295,899 posts)spite of all the "hate" thrown at her.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
bitterross
(4,066 posts)I'm also not so blind as to not see reality.
Yes, when she said there was a vast right-wing conspiracy she was correct. I believe that.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Cha
(295,899 posts)came across differently.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
bitterross
(4,066 posts)I would love it if Hillary were in the White House.
That didn't happen. So, I have to try to be as objective as possible and figure out why. Russian interference is one reason.
But we have to look at that interference. It simply played upon the psyche of the nation. As far as we know, the Russians didn't change votes in voting machines.
What we know is they targeted people's emotions and used them to direct the voting.
WE, the Democrats, can target people's emotions for good. Not for the evil and selfishness Trump does.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
c-rational
(2,581 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
floppyboo
(2,461 posts)For instance, millennial women don't have the same indoctrination, which makes you wonder why she didn't capture that vote as did an old white man. She'd have to come out big time for the green new deal, public banking, medicare for all, net neutrality, prison reform in ways she didn't quite communicate last time.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
bitterross
(4,066 posts)The 50+ demographic is really what I was thinking about.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
floppyboo
(2,461 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Cha
(295,899 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Hortensis
(58,785 posts)keeping the house and bringing the senate on her coattails. The midterms show the public's waking up and concerned, no longer so complacent. And we know about Russia and other corruption, including media and FBI, that caused the then-inexplicable changes later in the race.
I believe very few Republicans would vote for her -- that kind of change in this mega-identity era is relatively rare. But registered Republicans are at most a quarter of the electorate now. And as the midterms indicate, a few more conservative indies would (but most loyal to their mega-identity), of course more liberal indies, more nonvoters, and more registered Democrats.
I suspect more of Sanders' ideologues and cultists would, but discussion makes me think many would again refuse to vote for Hillary. Their identifying fealty to their one candidate and the partisan antagonism and rejection already displayed toward others are very different from the attitudes of Democrats who may already have a preference among other candidates but expect to honestly support whoever our nominee is. Also, the HillHate still simmering on their little satellite forum...
My best guess is that Sanders' populists might split somewhat this time, not all going Trump and third party. Those more strongly driven by their progressive side than antagonism might vote Democrat this time out of worry for their health insurance and so on. Might. It didn't keep them before.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Demsrule86
(68,347 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
FBaggins
(26,695 posts)But it doesnt matter because she wouldnt get the nomination.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Dazbog
(39 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
pandr32
(11,446 posts)The social media disinformation is already in full tilt. Putin still has his plans and goals and the Republicans will still carry the water.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Funtatlaguy
(10,856 posts)The irrational hatred ginned up against her was one of this countrys darkest moments
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
SWBTATTReg
(21,856 posts)an former(?) senator and one of the most graceful persons we all know. I want to concentrate on the candidates who already stepped to the plate and work on getting them elected.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
UniteFightBack
(8,231 posts)automatically say ...oh no she would lose....but would she?
Since the margin was so close in those 3 states it wouldn't take much to flip that I would think. They may already be flipped because of how bad rump is. But in the end the risks just outweigh her making another run.
If I had my way Hillary would of won in 2008 and then Obama would of come in after that. When everybody started breaking for Obama I was like Nooooo what is everybody doing...he's young, he's kinda new..he'll still be there. The momentum was with Hillary until this "new guy" who you could not help but just love "broke on the scene."
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
BlueFlorida
(1,532 posts)has been damaged irreparably by one campaign with smears, innuendo and outright lies, possibly aided by foreign interference.
The Mueller complaint against 12 Russian entities and individuals SPECIFICALLY mentions that the Russians operated troll farms, disinfo websites and divisive tactics.
https://www.justice.gov/file/1035477/download
See paragraph 43 of the indictment on page 17 of 37.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden