New B- Rated PA poll Joe 30, Warren 18, Sanders 12, Pete 8, Gabbard 2, Klobuchar 2, Harris 1, Beto 0

[Celerity]

also, Bennet 2, Booker 1, Yang 1, Bullock 0

https://www.fandm.edu/uploads/files/93374337988676509-f-m-poll-release-october-2019.pdf








Methodology



The survey findings presented in this release are based on the results of interviews conducted October 21 - 27, 2019. The interviews were conducted at the Center for Opinion Research at Franklin & Marshall College on behalf of the Center for Politics and Public Affairs. The poll was designed and administered by the staff of the Center for Opinion Research. The data included in this release represent the responses of 482 Pennsylvania registered voters, including 226 Democrats, 188 Republicans, and 68 independents. The sample of registered voters was obtained from Marketing Systems Group. All sampled respondents were notified by letter about the survey. Interviews were completed over the phone and online depending on each respondent’s preference. Survey results were weighted (age, gender, education, and party registration) using an iterative weighting algorithm to reflect the known distribution of those characteristics as reported by the Pennsylvania Department of State and Pennsylvania exit polls. The sample error for this survey is +/- 6.1 percentage points when the design effects from weighting are considered (the sample error for registered Democrats is +/- 8.9 percent). In addition to sampling error, this poll is also subject to other sources of non-sampling error. Generally
speaking, two sources of error concern researchers most. Non-response bias is created when selected participants either choose not to participate in the survey or are unavailable for interviewing. Response errors are the product of the question and answer process. Surveys that rely on self-reported behaviors and attitudes are susceptible to biases related to the way respondents process and respond to survey questions.

[democratisphere]

1. The single digit candidates need to step aside and let the

double digit contenders battle it out.

[Sherman A1]

4. Yeah, okay

I believe history tells us that the early front runners don't fair so well in the process. So perhaps that is not such a great idea.

[Sloumeau]

2. Celerity, thank you so much for the posting. Woohoo! :)

[Celerity]

3. yw!

[Scurrilous]

5. K&R

[Tarheel_Dem]

6. That's a pretty substantial MOE. n/t

[Celerity]

7. yes it is, that is why I posted the full methodology, so that people can see for themselves

[Gothmog]

8. Penn. is a key battleground state

Link to tweet

[Celerity]

9. yes, but the good news is we can lose PA and still have many multiple paths to victory

IF we win WI and MI (and the other states we won in 2016) and yet lose PA

we still win if any of the following happen (MO and IN are gone I fear, Rump crushes all, even Biden so far, and TX is VERY iffy)

Flip FL

or

Flip NC

or

Flip GA

or

Flip OH

or

Flip AZ (need one more EV to avoid 269-269 tie which we lose in the House as the Rethugs will have the 26 votes needed to hand Rump the POTUS, so we need to add any one of the following to AZ... IA OR ME-2 OR NE-2)

none of those are easy I do admit, but Biden (and only Biden overall) beats Rump in many may polls in all those states, even NC, OH, AZ and GA



but we could even also lose WI (I cannot see MI going Rump this go-round) on top of PA

and still win

if we (all this remain the same as above)

Flip FL

or

Flip NC and IA plus one more EV (as that is another 269-269 tie) from any of the ones listed above

Flip GA and IA

Flip GA and NC

Flip GA and AZ

Flip NC and AZ

Flip both IA and AZ and either one of NC or GA


PA obviously puts the hammer down on Rump, as if he loses that he would have to literally win ALL of the following to win then (this includes us winning MI btw, as well as NV and NH)


Both or one of ME-2 and NE-2 (if he wins just one and runs all the rest below, he would win in the House as it would be another 269-269 tie)

and ALL of

WI
IA
AZ
NC
FL
GA
TX
OH
IN
MO


IF Rump loses MI, WI, AND PA

the only path to victory is (as none of CO, VA, MN, and NM are not going to flip for Rump, that is delusional thinking on the Rethugs part)

win ALL the rest listed above plus

Flip BOTH NV and NH and both or one of ME-2 and NE-2 (if he wins just one and runs all the rest, he would win in the House as it would be another 269-269 tie)