As predicted in December a 'Draft Daniels Campaign' has begun. (updated 25/1)

[grantcart]

Last edited Wed Jan 25, 2012, 02:17 PM - Edit history (1)

Today January 25th

Huffington Post joins the whispering

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/01/24/gop-2012-presidential-candidates_n_1229343.html

Yesterday was USA Today

http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/story/2012-01-24/indiana-governor/52769606/1




Whispering campaign for Daniels already started (December 19);

http://www.democraticunderground.com/100245248

Why the new rules for the Republican primary season make it impossible for one candidate to get 51% of the delegates in a multi candidate field (December 11);

http://www.democraticunderground.com/10023695

Why Romney is finished (Decenber 14)

http://www.democraticunderground.com/100215205


Now here is Draft Daniels website;

http://www.runmitchrun.com/

Here are articles that are the second stage of a whispering campaign

(January 24th) http://www.ology.com/politics/mitch-daniels-reconsidering-presidential-bid/01242012

Here is Kristol

January 23rd


Debate Winner: Mitch Daniels

http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/debate-winner-mitch-daniels_618334.html

I’ve got to think Monday night’s debate further swelled the groundswell of support for Mitch Daniels. The liveliest part of the debate was at the beginning, when Mitt went after Newt—and Republicans all over America watched with fascinated horror at the thought that these are the two GOP frontrunners. The only spectacle in American politics more off-putting than Newt Gingrich in self-righteous defense mode is Mitt Romney in self-righteous attack mode. I thought Mitt’s attacks were somewhat more dishonest than Newt’s defenses were disingenuous, but it was good to move on to the rest of the debate, where little further damage was done.

My conclusion: If Mitch Daniels’s effective tax rate is 30 percent rather than 15 percent, and if he was never paid $1.6 million by Freddie Mac, he can be the next president.

January 23rd
Washington Post http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/post/mitch-daniels-and-what-could-have-been/2012/01/23/gIQAdmffLQ_blog.html

January 22nd
http://dailycaller.com/2012/01/22/calls-renew-for-mitch-daniels-to-enter-presidential-race/



This much chatter has to be coordinated. If Daniels really wanted to get out of all consideration he could have done what Chris Christie did and endorse another candidate.

[Samantha]

1. I don't understand this

He was approached about the same time as Christie and discussed the opportunity with his wife. He declined to enter the race. The thing I best remember is that George Bush wanted him to jump in, and Laura even called his wife. But after a short consideration, he declined. This was months ago.

Sam

[grantcart]

2. My analysis is that he knew that he would be competing for the same demographic against Romney

but without the resources, so it was in his interest to wait until the field narrowed, while the anti Romney faction would eventually coalesce. If Romney hadn't significantly improved on the stump then he would continue to hit his head on the hard 30 point ceiling that has persisted for 4 years. Last year when Romney went to Utah to support the renomination of Senator Bennett he was roundly booed, booed in Utah.

The fact is that Romney's ceiling has been well known for a long time. I think that Daniels considered that it was better and sit back and give Romney his chance and if he turned out to be as ineffective as he is that he could then benefit from a draft campaign without drumming up all of the negativity of a primary campaign.

Campaigns have little to do with positive numbers. When planning a campaign the only really important number is how high the negatives are. The reason for this is it is fairly easy to turn ambivalent feelings into a positive, and very easy to change a positive feeling into a negative but once somebody has expressed a negative opinion then it is very very difficult to change that to a positive.

Romney's negative numbers among Republicans is high, and Gingrich's negative numbers are the highest of any national politician at the start of a campaign. There is no political science theory that I am aware of that gives anyone with Gingrich's negative numbers the slightest possibility of getting to the WhiteHouse. As Gingrich's numbers go up and Romney's numbers go down then President' Obama's Intrade numbers climb.

If Daniels was serious about not running under any circumstance then he could do what Chris Christie did (who is serious about not running) he could endorse one of the candidates, and until he does that I believe that he is leaving the door open.

Nothing is more attractive to the electorate than a reluctant politician who has to be persuaded to join the race. I think that many in the leadership of the Republican Party knew from the begining that none of these were Presidential timber and if Romney couldn't win it decisively that an alternative would have to be made possible at the convention.

[Thrill]

3. Just what the country needs. Bush's Budget Director?

The same budgets that led to Trillion dollar deficits

[Douglas Carpenter]

4. I find it hard to imagine the GOP base accepting an Arab-American as a potential Republican nominee

[grantcart]

5. that is somewhat deceptive

He is an arab-american Christian whose family can claim that they came to America to follow their faith in religious freedom.


1) Republicans love to embrace guys like this (see Hermain Cain) in order to push the meme that they are not racist, but a family that can claim religious persecution for their Christian faith will trump his ethnic background.

2) Democrats aren't going to make an issue out of it.

3) He looks like his family is from Denmark or England, etc.

[Douglas Carpenter]

11. Accepting 2011 Arab American Institute Award, Mitch Daniels highlights Syrian background

Syrian background
Source: Byron Tau, Politico

Wednesday May 04, 2011

Mitch Daniels drew extensively on his Syrian heritage in accepting an award from an Arab-American group Wednesday night, connecting his own family’s journey to the United States with the uprisings unfolding in his ancestral homeland and elsewhere in the Arab world.

“There have been the same stirrings, same yearnings for freedom that have busted loose elsewhere," the Indiana governor said during his second public appearance of the day in Washington. “May Syria and all the lands near it soon become places of peace, and freedom and self-determination.”

Daniels, who gave a major education speech earlier in the day as he mulls a presidential bid, compared his paternal grandfather’s emigration from Syria to Ellis Island in 1905 to the broader struggles against dictatorship and autocracy in the Middle East, identifying the desire for freedom and a better life as the common threads.

“The same dreams and the same hopes and the same determination to make a great life for themselves that brought Elias Esau Daniels to this country — of which he knew nothing, whose language he did not speak — is alive now in that part of the world,” Daniels said as he accepted the Kahlil Gabran "Spirit of Humanity" award at the Arab American Institute Awards Gala. "And they have a chance to bring the same sort of wonderful opportunities he made possible for my father and ultimately for me.

“I love the story of our family,” he added. “Now I am so proud that brave Syrians have stepped forward, as their Egyptian and Tunisian and other counterparts have — and against, apparently, brutal threats and repressions — have stood up for the right to dream.”

It was a rare discussion of foreign policy for the Republican widely admired for his fiscal acumen and management expertise. Daniels had told a group of reporters the day before that he's "probably not" ready for a debate on foreign issues with President Barack Obama

http://www.aaiusa.org/index_ee.php/news/entry/accepting-award-mitch-daniels-highlights-syrian-background/

[grantcart]

15. Not sure what you think your link is proving

Daniels comes from a multi generation Christian family and he is, IMO, more articulate about his faith than any Republican leader, including Huckabee. If you think that Evangelicals will not embrace an American Christian of Arab descent then I think that you are falling for a caricature of Evangelicals that I haven't found to really be the case. In fact I think that they tend to overcompensate (i.e. Herman Cain) when they have someone in their group who will help dispel this image of themselves.

Here are some examples of Daniels talking about his faith. Having been raised a Presbyterian I can state that he is not superficial in his understanding.

http://www.wane.com/dpp/news/politics/Daniels-talks-candidly-about-his-faith

Daniels talks candidly about his faith

Also shares concerns about "aggressive atheism."

Updated: Friday, 18 Dec 2009, 9:47 PM EST
Published : Thursday, 24 Dec 2009, 6:00 PM EST
Mark Mellinger



INDIANAPOLIS, Ind. (WANE) - With Christmas in mind, Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels opened up about his Christian faith -which he calls the central part of his life- in a recent interview with NewsChannel 15 at the Governor's Residence in Indianapolis. Among other revealing responses, Daniels -a Presbyterian- said he would agree with the Westminster Confession of Faith's assertion that the purpose of life is "to glorify God and enjoy Him forever."

Daniels told NewsChannel 15 it's probably the most he's talked about his faith publicly in the last 5 years. The conversation sprung at least partly from the governor's recent recommendation of the book No One Sees God by Michael Novak, which Daniels characterized as responding to "aggressive atheism" with Christian charity. Excerpts of the interview are below:

Mark Mellinger: You've talked about your own personal faith very little. What is the Gospel? What is its primary significance to Mitch Daniels?

Governor Daniels: It's true. I don't talk about these things too openly for two reasons.

One is [that] although faith is very central to me, I also take very seriously the responsibility to treat my public duties in a way that keeps separate church and state and respects alternative views.

Secondly, I've sometimes referred to it as a Matthew 6 Christian. If you read that chapter, it's the one that talks about praying in private, not giving your alms in public, not being ostentatious about your faith. And I've always liked that notion and thought that was a pretty important instruction.

http://www.christianitytoday.com/ct/2011/octoberweb-only/mitch-daniels-economy-faith.html?start=3

Back to a policy question, should President Bush's faith-based efforts and compassionate conservatism have been executed differently?

I was ambivalent about it. I very much liked the greater emphasis he put as a candidate on the problems of the poor and the less fortunate, the children in bad schools, and all of that. I liked the substance—we've done it in Indiana. We brought it into our prisons and our substance abuse efforts. We encouraged, acted, and supported where we could these kinds of activities. My ambivalence I mentioned was in the term itself. I never liked the term—it had a ring to it, yes, but it suggested most conservatism isn't compassionate. I reject that completely—that previous conservatism wasn't compassionate—I don't believe that for a minute. If I thought that, I never would have touted myself as conservative. In certain parts of our tradition, believing in the values, the primacy of family life and of government close to the people, for me, is compassionate because it produces better results, better lives than with those who start with little or nothing.

[Douglas Carpenter]

17. I'm not trying to prove anything and I definitely don't understand why you're being so defensive

Last edited Thu Jan 26, 2012, 06:55 AM - Edit history (3)

I know Evangelicals very, very well. It is my own original background. His main problem is that like Huntsman he simply does not pass the crazy test. He does not come off as extreme. He is not anti-Muslim even if he waxes eloquent about coming to America for religious freedom. Even if like Huntsman he is extreme on economic issues. He is very sympathetic to the Arab Spring and identifies quite strongly as an Arab-American which does not go over well in far right circles. His name recognition is not particularly strong. I can't see what demographic he can build support from. He does not have any organization in place and it is already much too late to put one in place. The establishment GOP is still behind Romney. Gov. Daniels is not going to enter the race. It is not going to happen. Of course, I could be wrong. I have been before and no doubt will be in the future. But in this case I would be extremely surprised.

BTW: The Intrade Market has now fallen to 1% down from 2.2% of two days ago. Whatever blip occurred as a result of a few articles has now dissipated.

[grantcart]

18. I am not being defensive, I can't follow your point

My point is simply that there is going to be a draft Daniels movement, as I predicted.

That movement has started.

You are arguing that he can't get the nomination, something that is completely beyond the scope of this thread, I never said that he was a likely candidate to win except to say that the fact that all four present candidates are so flawed that some type of draft is going to get a strong response.

Frankly I hope that a draft campaign fails. I think the four remaining candidates are so fatally flawed that any draft candidate would be more problematic.

Regarding Intrade I don't think the volume for the Republican nominee has attracted volume enough to be a real predictive barometer yet but this article shows that yesterday Mitch was running ahead of Santorum, and my point in December was that there was going to be a draft Daniels campaign, and I think that has already been confirmed;

http://dailycaller.com/2012/01/24/prediction-market-daniels-more-likely-to-be-gop-nominee-than-santorum/


Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels has a better chance of winning the Republican nomination than Rick Santorum, at least according to the prediction market on Intrade.

The gamblers on “the world’s leading prediction market” gave Daniels a 2.5 percent chance of winning the nomination as of Tuesday night, while Santorum — a former senator from Pennsylvania and current presidential contender — had a slightly more miserable 1.2 percent chance.


Read more: http://dailycaller.com/2012/01/24/prediction-market-daniels-more-likely-to-be-gop-nominee-than-santorum/#ixzz1kdomuGWe

So we have a situation where Mitch Daniels is doing (atleast for a short time) better than the winner of the Iowa primary on intrade, which I believe confirms my prediction that there was going to be a serious effort to draft Daniels and that has now reached Fox;

#!

&feature=related

[grantcart]

6. Now in USA today

http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/story/2012-01-24/indiana-governor/52769606/1

Indiana governor urged to run for president
By Bill McCleery, The Indianapolis StarUpdated 23h 29m ago Comments
INDIANAPOLIS – Dissatisfied with the current crop of presidential candidates, some Republicans still want Indiana's governor and the former director of the Office of Management and Budget to make a late entry into the race.

By Michael Conroy, AP
Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels is being urged to reverse his decision not to run for president.

As As Gov. Mitch Daniels prepares to deliver the GOP's response to President Obama's State of the Union speech Tuesday night, a fresh effort is underway to "draft" Daniels to reverse his decision last year not to seek the presidency.

Since a petition was put online Saturday night at www.runmitchrun.com, it accumulated almost 7,000 signatures as of noon Tuesday.





Ironically this was shown with an ad from Mitt Romney lol

[Odin2005]

16. An Arab-American with the surname "Daniels"???

[denem]

7. Draft Jack Daniels.

'More than Ever'

[Douglas Carpenter]

8. but his appeal will not be with the religious right or with the tea party or social conservatives

Last edited Wed Jan 25, 2012, 03:21 PM - Edit history (1)

He simply does not pass the crazy test enough to appease the social conservative base. His potential support could come only from people who would otherwise be inclined to support Mitt Romney. I think it is already too late to launch a viable campaign unless Romney actually is forced out of the race by something unexpected.

[Ruby the Liberal]

9. Interesting comments from Kristol.

Who had he been backing?

[cliffordu]

10. K&R......

[Douglas Carpenter]

12. Intrade currently speculating a 1.8% chance of Mitch Daniels becoming the GOP nominee

if we see some dramatic movement upward on the Intrade figures - this will indicate that this whispering is something serious. But as it now stands. Given that his support would come almost totally from those who are currently supporting Romney - and given that he would would not have any appeal with the right-wing social conservative, religious right and tea party base - baring Romney being forced out of the race by something scandolous - he is not a viable contender for the GOP nomiation in 2012.


http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=695192

[grantcart]

13. Kristol must be buying, lol

The Daniels scenario is based on a not Newt, Romney, Paul or Santorium read, which is the same as LO had when he famously made Pawlenty the nominee.

There is still time for some 'favorite' sons to get ballot presence on the latter primary dates.

Disagree that it would come from those currently supporting Romney. As DemconWatch points out only about 5% of the superdelegates, who represent Republican heirarchy have committed for Romney. 90% of the Superdelegates are uncommitted. Polling shows that about 60% of the Republicans who are voting in primary are not that committed to the candidate that they are voting for and might change their vote.

Whoever becomes the candidate it is very very difficult to see how in the world they are going to get 51% of the delegates before the convention. If the superdelegates continue to sit on their hands (and the incentive is for them to committ as late as possible) and if Paul and Santorum get 15% combined then one delegate would have to get 70% of the remaining to clear 51% of the delegates, unlikely in proportional states.

As for Intrade Mitch is just behind Santorum and two points behind Paul, and above Jeb Bush, quite high for someone not running.


Since we last posted this morning 7,000 more have signed the petition. Here is what has been written since the AM

CBS News

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503544_162-57365971-503544/amid-voter-dissatisfaction-grows-movement-to-draft-mitch-daniels-into-gop-race-gains-ground/


In September, when asked about potentially accepting an offer to be the vice presidential candidate, Daniels said, "I always say that one day the phone rings and something interesting that seems useful is on the other end...you don't rule anything out."


That phone call is what McKillip said the campaign is working toward.


"We want to let the phone ring one more time, in the hopes of him answering the call and entering this race," McKillip said. "We can't force him into it, but we want to show him the mass support is there."

New York Times

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/24/us/politics/a-gop-counterweight-to-obama-but-so-far-just-in-speech-response.html?_r=1


Al Hubbard, a former director of President George W. Bush’s National Economic Council and a confidant of Mr. Daniels’s, said there’s “no question there continues to be” regrets over Mr. Daniels’s decision not to run.

“I am supporting Romney, but obviously my first choice was Mitch Daniels, and I’m disappointed he didn’t run,” said Mr. Hubbard, an Indiana businessman.

Jane Jankowski, the governor’s spokeswoman, again sought to put the speculation and hopes to rest. “If I’ve heard him answer it one time I’ve heard it a thousand times. He believes there are other ways he can contribute,” she said, including the address he will deliver Tuesday.

Mr. Boehner and Mr. McConnell asked him just before Christmas to give the State of the Union response, always a difficult assignment after the pomp of the presidential speech.

“Certainly no one would volunteer for this assignment,” Ms. Jankowski said.

The notion that Mr. Daniels could have been — and might still be — a unifying standard bearer lingers more in Washington Republican circles than the Tea Party-saturated Republican electorate at large, said Dave Funk, co-chairman of the Republican Party in Polk County, Iowa. Mr. Daniels is a strong voice on fiscal discipline, but he also stirred opposition by calling for a truce on social issues within the party.

Rush Limbaugh

Remember, before the State of the Union show, we had a story on Monday, the headline story was "Establishment hoping to find a way to get Mitch Daniels back in the game." Well, I know his wife said no, but things change.

[Proud Liberal Dem]

14. Well there are a few things that could hurt (or help) him.

1. Right-to-Work (for less) just passed and he plans to sign it despite having galvanized a lot of opposition from Unions and even Republicans were divided over it. Daniels said he was opposed to RTW 6 years ago.
2. Response to last night's SOTU "response": http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2012/jan/25/mitch-daniels/mitch-daniels-says-nearly-half-all-persons-under-3/
3. Daniels signed (possibly illegal) law defunding Planned Parenthood last year though has previously called for a "truce" on social issues (which angered social conservatives).
4. Is socially moderate and signed executive order prohibiting discrimination on basis of gender/sexual orientation, which honked off social conservatives.
5. He was OMB director in George W. Bush's (mis-)Administration during his first term.