21,090,766 and a couple of other numbers you really need to have on the tip of your tongue.
Briefly surfacing from an extended road trip and bracing for another long one I normally don't have but a few minutes to check in with the Greatest, LBN but wanted to offer a couple of big picture numbers that are useful to remind other Democrats, persuade uncommitteds and shut down right wing talkers:
1) Four out of the last five US Presidential Elections have been won by Democrats.
Without getting into the contentious questions of 2000 and 2004 it is a simple fact that over the past 20 years the US people have voted for Democratic Nominees in all elections except 2004 which was the middle of a hot war and no American electorate has ever switched administrations in the middle of a hot war. If somebody refers to 2000 you can remind them that the election was won by a Democrat but the electoral college was won by Bush, these facts are not in dispute.
The whole meme that this is a conservative leaning country is not sustained by electoral facts.
2) The combined total of votes for Democratic nominees over Republican nominees in the last 20 years is 271,837,637 versus 250,746,871 for a difference of 21,090,766, not a small number.
So when the Republicans try and frame the discussion by stating they are going to "take back the country" or that the Democratic Party is somehow outside of the mainstream of America, simply say "21,090,766". They will ask what you are talking about and you can tell them that in the last 20 years the Democrats have 21,090,766 votes than Republicans and that there point is nonsense.
3) The polls are showing a close election. They are only if you think that 2 + 2 is closer to 22 than 4.
We have two sets of widely reported facts;
Set One;
1) Obama has a 70+ solid lead among non white (African Americans/Hispanics) which account for roughly 20% of the population.
Obama has a 20 point lead among women.
Obama has a 20 point lead among young.
Obama is slightly behind Romney in angry white males that don't fit the above categories.
If you take the first two (1. 70% of 20 is `14+)(2. 20% of the remaining 80% is 16+) then all of the relevent polls show that Obama has a 30 point advantage and Romney would have to be ahead of all white males 65-35 for the total polling to be even close.
And yet while national tracking polls all show a tight race individual state polls don't.
Set Two
Obama is showing big leads in Blue states, leads in Purple and closer than you would think in some Red States.
A sampling from Real Clear Politics http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/
NH Obama 51- 42 (UNH) Remember this is Romney's 'home state'
AZ Romney 42-40 (AZSt.)
OH Obama 45-38 (FOX)
NY Obama 57-35 (Marist) 60-35 (Siena 60-35)
NJ Obama 49-40 (Quinnipiac)
NC Obama 49-44 (PPP)
NM Obama 52-46 (Ras)
CO Obama 53-40 (PPP)
VA Romney 46-41 (Roanoke)
I didn't cherry pick these polls but included all of the polls from the last 2 weeks including blatant Republican pollsters like FOX and Rasmussen.
What accounts for the discrepancy between two radical sets of numbers, one from national polls and the other from combining the aggregate of states or various groups?
You could talk about how minorities, Democrats and the young are more under reported in landline national polls and local polls take greater care to be more representative.
Or you could point out that there is an entire industry of pollsters and broadcasters who have a great deal to make if the election is a close horse race. If it is basically seen as a done deal contributions to both sides will be done and that will mean as much as a billion dollars of lost advertising. Only a fraction of the polls will be done. So a close national race generates hundreds of millions of dollars in broadcast advertising and millions of dollars in additional polling revenues.
4) Finally a number with teeth in it 60-38
Intrade the political futures market where people put money up the President has been absolutely steady at 58-61 and Romney has been stuck on 38 for months.
http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/?eventId=84326
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