Arizona: battleground state

[illegaloperation]

If Arizona becomes a swing state in 2016, get out the vote (GOTV) operation should be a dream. 60% of the population clusters around Phoenix in Maricopa County and another 17% in the Pima County.

Hispanics there are disgusted with SB 1070, Jan Brewer, Joe Arpaio, and the Republican Party.

What we need is a presidential candidate that can win enough percent of white votes (lose the white votes by a smaller margin) to be able to carry Arizona.

The 2012 Presidential election in Arizona is R +9.03% so we need to bridge that gap in 2016.

[davidpdx]

1. If there was a good turnout in both Tuson and Phoenix for Ds

I could see it happening. Obama only lost by 9% or about 208,000 votes. The Phoenix area would definitely have to go blue to get it done though. Depends on the candidate, the level of enthusiasm, and the GOTV effort.

[illegaloperation]

2. I agree.

We need a big GOTV operation and can get help from neighboring blue states.

The big problem is that I am not sure if there is actually enough eligible Latinos (citizen and of voting age) to flip the state even if turnout is not a problem. The white vote there is very conservative compare to some in the nearby states.

We might need lose the white votes by a smaller margin. A white candidate (ie. Clinton) may help, since race seem to be an issue there.

[former9thward]

3. Currently Dems are in third place in party registration in AZ

The Reps are first and Indies are second. How the Indies vote will determine how the state goes.