2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumLaugh and deride if you want, but this is how it's going down...
1) Obama puts Chained CPI in the budget, something the 'Thugs wanted
2) Democrats outraged.Expected.
3) GOP splits, part are just as outraged as the Democrats, part a screaming that it's not enough. Expected.
4) Outrage spreads, grows louder and more angry. Expected.
5) After a length of time, not long, Obama steps forward -
--- I tried to make a compromise with the GOP, I included one of their major 'wants'
--- They have rejected it, as I EXPECTED they would.
--- Chained CPI is OFF the table, we will find savings in reasonable ways, and we will get revenue to help.
--- The GOP has proven they are no longer credible, reasonable, or have anything but their own political gain in mind.
The only plan they have is their own self-interests.
--- Enough.
Then assuming the whiners don't act childish like in 2010, The House is ours, the Senate remains and strengthens
Then, watch the fun.
robinlynne
(15,481 posts)Common Sense Party
(14,139 posts)robinlynne
(15,481 posts)yourout
(7,524 posts)alfredo
(60,071 posts)we'll see who as the last laugh , yourout , and i won't be you !
MichiganVote
(21,086 posts)Sides' he means it. Has no use for anyone but the banksters.
progressoid
(49,951 posts)Even if it gets dropped, people will remember. 2014 is just around the corner.
Floyd_Gondolli
(1,277 posts)They're busy watching The Voice and Diving With the Stars.
progressoid
(49,951 posts)about this debacle.
Also the 65-70 million voters that are nearing retirement.
This is the kind of hot button issue that will get them to the polls.
WorseBeforeBetter
(11,441 posts)keep him/her from running to the polls in 2010 in a Granny's-getting-offed-by-Death-Panels frenzy. 2014 will be no different -- Republicans will make sure Americans know it's Obama, and by extension, Democrats, who offered up Social Security. This will not end well.
1StrongBlackMan
(31,849 posts)The gop framing won't work ... President Obama won't be on the ballot and even the average Joe/Jane know that.
And then, look at what the Democrats in Congress are actually saying about President Obama's proposal ... those in safe districts are loudly arguing against the proposal ... those expected to be in closer races are saying, "I oppose this CCPI thing; but I'm open to discussing it BUT ONLY WHEN THE republicans AGREE TO DOING MORE ON REVENUE."
The average Joe/Jane will be reminded of this.
WorseBeforeBetter
(11,441 posts)Obama's ACA in 2010; Obama's proposed cuts to Social Security in 2014. It's really pretty simple.
Polls bear out that average Joe/Jane -- of all political stripes -- overwhelmingly oppose cuts to Social Security, and that includes CCPI. They don't want to hear excuses about what Republicans are, or are not, doing. And "Republicans made me do it" will not fly. Obama should NEVER have put his fellow Democrats, particularly those in unsafe districts, in a position that makes them MORE vulnerable. I can already picture the ads the Teabagger candidate will be running against my Sensible Centrist senator.
Obama had his chance to do more on revenue, i.e., let the Bush tax cuts expire when they were scheduled to. Yes, there would have been short-term pain for some, but now there's long-term pain for more. This is no way to run a country.
A Simple Game
(9,214 posts)1StrongBlackMan
(31,849 posts)the OP is showing the path TO 2014 for Democrats.
A Simple Game
(9,214 posts)1StrongBlackMan
(31,849 posts)your comment mean?
brooklynite
(94,358 posts)progressoid
(49,951 posts)But in purple America, flipping those votes can mean the difference between a Democrat or a Republican in office. We don't need to give them any more ammo against the Democratic party.
bornskeptic
(1,330 posts)the party that raised their retirement age to 66 or 67, the party that wants to voucherize Medicare and block grant Medicaid, all because President Obama proposed what amounts to a 1.25% cut in Social Security which won't happen because most Democrats will vote against it? When is your book on political strategy coming out?
progressoid
(49,951 posts)You'd be amazed at how gullible they can be. Their rationale for voting can easily be swayed by whatever the talking heads scream at them about.
brooklynite
(94,358 posts)...unless Democratic Congressmembers vote for it. Can you point to a single Democrat who responded positively?
1StrongBlackMan
(31,849 posts)And even if it was, what are the Congress folks that represent Brooklyn ... you know, the ones who WILL be on the ballot ... actually saying about President Obama's budget proposal?
The fact is ... because of the gerrymandering after 2010 ... in order to flip the House (and extend in the Senate), Democrats need the plurality of Independent voters AND gop voters that poll as seeing the modern gop as being the party that is unwilling to compromise, to either vote Democratic (unlikely), vote 3rd-Party, or stay home.
1StrongBlackMan
(31,849 posts)delude or scare the gop; so much as to EXPOSE the modern gop for who and what they are. And the target audiences are the plurality of Independent voters and gop voters that poll as assigning the modern gop as the party that is unwilling to compromise. It is those groups (thanks to gerrymandering) that Democrats need to vote Democratic (not likely), or vote 3rd-Party (in an attempt to rid Congress of those unwilling to comromise), or stay home in 2014 (out of disgust).
This is about 2014.
Common Sense Party
(14,139 posts)He's SO smart ad is thinking 43 moves ahead of the enemy.
Except that many of the 'Thugs did not even want Chained CPI.
Autumn
(44,982 posts)Just cause he could say "--- They have rejected it, as I EXPECTED they would." doesn't let him off the hook for offering it. That horse is out of the barn, and the barn burned down.
Life Long Dem
(8,582 posts)Autumn
(44,982 posts)Life Long Dem
(8,582 posts)Autumn
(44,982 posts)robinlynne
(15,481 posts)Renew Deal
(81,847 posts)So no surprise there
Squinch
(50,916 posts)SamReynolds
(170 posts)He won't say 'as I EXPECTED', for instance.
But yeah, I see things going this way too.
progressoid
(49,951 posts)Nobody thinks this is funny.
silverweb
(16,402 posts)[font color="navy" face="Verdana"]Only time will tell if that's what happens.
I've signed all the petitions. Beyond that, it's necessary to retreat from the political/emotional roller coaster, detach a bit, and just wait.
ChangeUp106
(549 posts)Look that's something that seems reasonable to believe, but when has Obama ever said "F*** it, I tried, now we're doing it the liberal way?"
alfredo
(60,071 posts)would rejected it without even reading it. Republicans don't want to give Obama any kind of victory, even if is something they have fought for for decades.
ChangeUp106
(549 posts)Either the Obama administration is incredibly stupid or they truly want what they propose. At this point it has to be choice #2.
alfredo
(60,071 posts)magical thyme
(14,881 posts)Now the GOP can offer Ryan's SS and Medicare cuts and say that they're "saving" SS and Medicare from Obama's drastic cuts and many people will sigh in relief that it's not as bad as it might have been had Obama's proposal been accepted.
This is really, really not good.
And if it's eleventy dimensional chess, it's a game to open the door to deeper cuts in the future, not about keeping that door securely closed and locked.
alfredo
(60,071 posts)magical thyme
(14,881 posts)After Jeb is elected that is exactly what they will be able to do.
alfredo
(60,071 posts)Can do would be minimized.
I am not sure the voting public is ready for another Bush. Jeb is not the most charismatic person.
magical thyme
(14,881 posts)is not a good way to hold the senate or regain the house. Democrats are now forced to distance themselves from the President, and not all of them are.
That cost W dearly in 2006 and President Obama dearly in 2010.
My own rep, who had signed the letter stating that chained CPI was bad policy is now refusing to promise not to cut SS.
lobezen
(39 posts)brace yourselves because cuts to Social Security and Medicare will be happening within Obama's 2nd term. Have we all forgotten that we went through through this whole song and dance during Obama's first term?! I sent post cards to the White House daily for a month straight admonishing him for proposing cuts to Social Security back in June/July 2011. It is the reason I refused to contribute a dime to his reelection in 2012. I seriously don't "get" President Obama I find myself asking WTF? a lot whenever I hear the details of his proposed budgets. It seems with very few exceptions, nobody in Washington gives a rat's backside whether the policies they propose will further devastate the average American. What is first and foremost in their minds is catering to the corporations and the uber rich.
magical thyme
(14,881 posts)But he has given the GOP the opening to be the "saviours" of SS, and if not this term then by 2016 they'll be able to install Jeb and start dismantling SS.
Carolina
(6,960 posts)and so true. This is not some damn game.
Obama continually eyes changes to SS and Medicare as a way to cut the deficit despite his pretty campaign words. He's swallowed the bait that the deficit is the nation's biggest problem and in both terms, peopled his cabinet and inner sanctum of advisors with Wall Street types.
I, too, refused to donate in this past election cycle, and had it not for repuke efforts to subvert the vote and Rmoney's loathsomeness, I'd have sat out 2012. Obama is an empty suit, Wall Street's puppet.
Welcome to DU!
1StrongBlackMan
(31,849 posts)as if this is the very first time "the door to" to SS has been opened ... it isn't.
And for those that believe that the door is open to cutting, you should be very, very hapy ... the people are clearly indicating that it is not.
magical thyme
(14,881 posts)We all know the GOP has been after SS since its inception. This is about the Democrats losing their fundamental difference here.
And yes, we the people are making clear we don't support cutting SS. Hopefully that will matter for a long time to come.
1StrongBlackMan
(31,849 posts)Doesn't that just show how unserious the gop is about accepting any offer President Obama presents?
magical thyme
(14,881 posts)We already know the GOP is unserious about accepting any offer the President presents.
The fact that the GOP can now offer a solution *left* of the President and still cut SS is not a good situation at all. Again, now they can say they are "saving" us from the President's "slashing" of SS, while still getting the cuts they've been after all along.
carolinayellowdog
(3,247 posts)is devoid of merit and is unsupported by evidence and reason
Zoeisright
(8,339 posts)Democrats stayed home in 2010, and we got the tea baggers, who gerrymandered the fucking hell out of Congressional districts, so it takes 2-1/2 Democratic votes to win over a repuke. That was ONLY because of some Democrats whining and pouting and not voting.
There's evidence and reason for you, sparky.
former9thward
(31,941 posts)Besides you saying it. Exit polls said Democratic turnout was good in 2010.
http://www.thomhartmann.com/forum/2011/07/democratic-turnout-was-good-2010-independents-broke-republicans
Art_from_Ark
(27,247 posts)The mushy middle is has no particular allegiance to either party and is more inclined to come out in numbers during a presidential election, but either sit out or vote for the other party in mid-term elections. It has been a trend that has pervaded American politics for at least the last 100 years, with the party in the White House nearly always losing seats in the House (and to a slightly lesser extent, Senate) mid-terms. In 2011, only 31% of voters identified themselves as being Democrats, and around 29% identified themselves as Republicans. Thus, around 40% were mushy middle independents who will vote whichever way the political wind is blowing them at the time, if they vote at all.
1StrongBlackMan
(31,849 posts)It is that "mushy middle" that is President Obama's target audience for showing, once again, the modern gop for who and what they are ... unwilling to compromise and unwilling to govern.
Doctor_J
(36,392 posts)Dems did not stay home, even though they had every right to. The ones who stayed home were the ones who voted for change in 08 and realized they'd been conned. You and the rest of the limbeciles need to stop blaming everything on liberals.
Carolina
(6,960 posts)and some can't handle the truth.
We have been continually conned and Obama is the Great Betrayer
Carolina
(6,960 posts)to show that when repukes win, they take advantage of their victory while when Dems win and we end up wondering WTF did we win?! Obama always concedes first. And there are too many bluedogs and corporatized Dems.
We don't need more Dems, we need an FDR and more Bernie Sanders
fishwax
(29,148 posts)you're talking about?
alfredo
(60,071 posts)what he is doing now?
tularetom
(23,664 posts)I'll admit it took me longer to catch on to the "umpteen dimensional chess" canard than it did to stop believing in the Easter bunny but they're both equally fictitious. If you don't think Obama really believes that the deficit is a bigger problem than social programs, just look at the advisors he has surrounded himself with.
The man has been in office for 4-1/2 years and he has never once responded to republican obstructionism in the manner you describe. What makes you think he's about to change all that now?
Please go find the interview his flunky Axelrod did with Rachel Maddow if you have any doubts as to whether or not this was a slick move designed to fool the republicans. It was not. These guys actually believed nobody would care if they offered to cut SS.
Carolina
(6,960 posts)Not only doesn't he respond to repuke obstructionism in the way described, he concedes early, then invites them to dinner at the White House!
This is not some damn game, chess or otherwise; his proposals and his advisors reveal his true self and prove he doesn't give a rat's ass about "we, the people."
alcibiades_mystery
(36,437 posts)Chained CPI affecting Social Security COLA will take effects in the next fiscal year. Book that.
gateley
(62,683 posts)seats are on the line, and they've seen the backlash.
alfredo
(60,071 posts)NV Whino
(20,886 posts)Just fucking run the country already. And fuck the GOP.
gateley
(62,683 posts)It seemed to come out of nowhere.
They probably suggested it to Obama over one of their dinners. Probably the same one where they said they wouldn't abuse the filibuster again.
gateley
(62,683 posts)Skittles
(153,113 posts)Rosco T.
(6,496 posts)GOP Hijacked the Budget Over Chained CPI in December, Now Its Not Enough
(snip)
In December of 2012, Speaker John Boehner (R-OH) said he had to have chained CPI. Oh, a little chained CPI would be compromise and if he got it, hed give the President $1 trillion in revenue, President Barack Obama is considering a possible budget concession on Social Security cost-of-living increases after House Speaker John Boehner dropped his opposition to raising tax rates for some top earners, said two people familiar with the talks . A Republican congressional aide said Boehner is pressing harder for the CPI revision than for other entitlement changes, such as an increase in the Medicare eligibility age.
Give us the chained CPI and well give you 1 trillion in revenue, Republicans offered in December. Cut to April of 2013: Obama offers them chained CPI, and guess what?
Chained CPI is not enough of a compromise! Its not even a real start. Its just rhetoric.
(snip)
not exactly 'nowhere' is it?
treestar
(82,383 posts)You'd think from reading DU it wasn't Boner who was the evil one.
Carolina
(6,960 posts)to evil, aid and abet it.
BHO continually shows that he he will give in to the repuke evilness, so they keep pushing the envelop.
Ergo, Obama owns this evil travesty, too
WorseBeforeBetter
(11,441 posts)according to this:
....
As Sargent points out, McConnell told the Wall Street Journal in late November that the chained CPI cost-of-living adjustment, means-testing on Medicare premiums, and an increase in the Medicare eligibility age would be the "kinds of things that would get Republicans interested in new revenue."
Medicare means-testing and chained CPI are two proposals that Obama has embraced throughout the constant series of budget talks.
Republicans would push back on Sargent's argument with a common refrain they already agreed to new revenue as part of the deal to avert the fiscal cliff. But the change in tone underscores the risk for Obama in embracing chained CPI as his own infuriating his own base while still getting nothing in return from Republicans.
http://www.businessinsider.com/chained-cpi-social-security-cuts-obama-budget-boehner-mcconnell-2013-4#ixzz2Q7dBNrfp
The White House has been played, and DU's vocal minority was DEAD WRONG in its insistence that Chained CPI was FOREVER off the table.
Rosco T.
(6,496 posts).. and played with finesse
WorseBeforeBetter
(11,441 posts)he seemed pretty dejected in a clip I watched of him earlier this evening on the News Hour.
southernyankeebelle
(11,304 posts)safety net no matter young or old. Keep these programs for the future generations. I don't trust Wall Street.
bowens43
(16,064 posts)obama got played like a cheap fiddle and has probably ensured that we lose the senate in 2014
DrDan
(20,411 posts)earlier post.
(bookmarked)
JEB
(4,748 posts)that the GOP did not long ago prove their total lack of credibility has not been paying attention. Now that cuts to SS have been laid on the table we can only be thankful for GOP intransigence. Eleven dimensional clusterfuck. Praise Jeebus! Which way to the soup kitchen?
paleotn
(17,884 posts)... I see it differently, and I think Obama's track record supports my read on this. Right out of the box he's giving away what we woud consider far, far too much. His initial concession is to cut social security. Either his an awful negotiator or he, like fellow "moderate" Dem. Erskine Bowles, has no problem cutting social security. I think the latter.
Someone above wrote that they think he's sold out to the banksters. Well yea, and for the same reason as bank robbers..."because that's where the money is."
rug
(82,333 posts)bluemarkers
(536 posts)but I aged a few years over the past few days
Roland99
(53,342 posts)jopacaco
(133 posts)So, it is ok to cause great anxiety to the poorest and weakest among who can't make do already and use them as though they are pawns in a game? I don't want any part of that scheme. Even if I believed that this is the plan (and I absolutely do not), I don't believe that the end justifies the means.
sulphurdunn
(6,891 posts)they play poker and call his bluff?
patrice
(47,992 posts)just1voice
(1,362 posts)4. Austerity measures.
5. Blame GOP for everything in flawed left/right criminal paradigm.
6. Get suckers to repeat propaganda paradigm hopefully perpetuating it.
That's the way it goes down everyday.
Then watch the misery.
MotherPetrie
(3,145 posts)Maven
(10,533 posts)silvershadow
(10,336 posts)tokenlib
(4,186 posts)..it won't do anything to help the rest of us....
reformist2
(9,841 posts)I want Prez Obama to stop playing games. Just get out there and fight for what we believe in from the start. Also, whatever happened to getting on TV at night to make your case? Why don't presidents ever do that anymore???
MFrohike
(1,980 posts)There is the little problem of every headline in the country noting the simple fact that the Social Security cuts were proposed by Obama, not the GOP. There's also the problem that should he take the cuts off the table, it won't be because he's being reasonable, it will be because the entire country is telling him that he's wrong. He'll end up looking like Bush when he tried to tamper with Social Security. The end result will be a Congress that looks much the same in 2014 and the continued lack of vision in Washington.
Kablooie
(18,612 posts)I'm not so sure about the House and Senate though.
That's the hope but our election system is so skewed and rigged that even if nearly everyone in the country wants Democrats the Pugs could still win.
Scootaloo
(25,699 posts)Seriously, he's been doing the "I offered, they refused" angle through his first term and now into the second. I think it's been demonstrated thoroughly enough, and I'd rather he shit or get off the pot, as the saying goes.
In other words, the point has been made. Thoroughly. Capitalize on it already!
Whether this is a Stupid Pet Trick or an actual attempt to pass the idea doesn't matter. It it's the former, it's absolutely needless and stressful for everyone. if the latter, well... I just hope it's the former, if I have to pick one of the two.
The republicans aren't going to work with him. We know it. Everyone knows it. Hell, they'd admitted it. The proof has been made and verified and re-proven, there are no mysteries. If this is all leading towards a goal of some sort, well fuck me, skip the pit stops, let's just fucking get there already!
gaspee
(3,231 posts)That that is the true scenario, but past is prelude and every single time we offer something previously unthinkable, it just moves everyone further right. People argue like all of DU has been doing and just putting it on the table makes it possible. And in a few months time, it doesn't seem so radical and then it happens.
graham4anything
(11,464 posts)[img][/img]
it's all such high theatre.
Barack Obama roped the dopes again.
The haters were never fans from the first day
Reminds me of Rush Limbaugh's Rush the Vote, Operation Kaos.
It continues.
Bluenorthwest
(45,319 posts)Your scenario ends without a budget, with Obama waving a magic wand shouting 'enough' as if that gets a budget passed. What happens next? Harry Potter casts a spell on the GOP for Obama and a budget passes?
Tippy
(4,610 posts)She really didn't pin him down but I got the impression this is going exacly as expected in other words there was/is a plan.... anyone else see this?
cliffordu
(30,994 posts)Stand and Fight
(7,480 posts)Rosco T.
(6,496 posts).. stay tuned.
MBS
(9,688 posts)The alternative is so depressing that, even though I'm a die-hard political junkie, I've barely been able to read, watch, or listen to any news about Congress or the White House for the last few weeks.
1StrongBlackMan
(31,849 posts)graham4anything
(11,464 posts)Not quite sure why so many others do not see it.
One can lose many battles and win the war
One can win 15 games in a row in baseball, and still finish in last place
Progressive dog
(6,899 posts)That scenario wouldn't even work as a comedy.
CrispyQ
(36,424 posts)He has set a precedent that a "democrat" can & will put SS on the table, & once it's been put on the table, it will be put on the table again. Now, TPTB don't even have to wait for a repub to get in office to try to go after SS.
Neither party works for us. We at least have a small coalition of voices, but they are way too small to be heard over the many other loud voices, like big media.
I wrote to my senators & rep & told them, "You better call the president & tell him to stop talking this chained CPI crap because right now, I'm not inspired to go to the polls & vote for any of you guys." Sadly, the weakest of my two dem senators is not up for reelection until 2016.
If he wanted to inspire enthusiasm for 2014, this was not the way to go about it. It feels like mandated insurance all over again.
snot
(10,502 posts)To any rational observer, "The GOP has {already} proven they are no longer credible, reasonable, or have anything but their own political gain in mind" - ten times over.
To no effect.
ucrdem
(15,512 posts)Most won't notice. There might even be a distraction, something involving guns perhaps, a touch of the tragic to take our minds off yet another Obama victory. And then it will be forgotten everywhere except the interminable rants of Greenwald, Hedges and Alex Jones.