2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumJamelle Bouie: Did Obama Lose Votes Because of His Race?
https://prospect.org/article/did-obama-lose-votes-because-his-raceDid Obama Lose Votes Because of His Race?
Jamelle Bouie
April 8, 2013
Most observers, with the exception of those who fervently believe in a colorblind America, accept the role race plays in perceptions of Barack Obama. His blackness influences supportersgenerating enthusiasm for his candidacyand detractors, from right-wing provocateurs like Rush Limbaugh. to left-wing critics like Cornel West.
snip//
Overall, in the 2008 presidential election, racial animus cost Obama between three and five percentage points, the equivalent of giving John McCain a home-state advantage nationwide.
For 2012, Stephens-Davidowitz reran the experiment, to see if the results would differ now that the public is familiar with Barack Obama as a political figure. Nope. At the low end, Obamas race cost him 3.2 percentage points in last years presidential election. At the high end, it cost him six full points. Nationally, Davidowitz estimates that Obama lost four points from his total as a result of racial animus. Again, giving Mitt Romney the equivalent of a home-state advantage throughout the country.
There a lot of things to take away from this, but here are two. First, this should throw (some) water on the viewheld by many, including myselfthat the economy is all that matters in presidential elections. Economics is an important factor in predicting elections, but its not the only one. Racism is just one of many variables that has a huge effect on the outcome of presidential contests.
And second? If this is correct, and Obama underperformed by roughly four points in 2008 and 2012, then theres a chance that the Democratic brand is stronger than we think. Well see in 2016, but a threepeat for the Democratic Party might be more likely than we think, given the potentially wider support for a white Democratic nominee for president.
VPStoltz
(1,295 posts)babylonsister
(170,964 posts)And second? If this is correct, and Obama underperformed by roughly four points in 2008 and 2012, then theres a chance that the Democratic brand is stronger than we think. Well see in 2016, but a threepeat for the Democratic Party might be more likely than we think, given the potentially wider support for a white Democratic nominee for president.
davidpdx
(22,000 posts)Which means some states where he lost narrowly could swing. I think it is very possible North Carolina will swing back. Maybe Georgia and Arizona (outside chance) if there is strong turnout in the larger cities. Indiana I think will stay red. If that were true it may also mean we won't have as close of a race in Florida, Ohio and Virginia.
Liberal_Stalwart71
(20,450 posts)anything done. I fervently believe that race is part of the problem.
msongs
(67,199 posts)Thinkingabout
(30,058 posts)Don't kid yourself into thinking race did not play a part. What excites me is the fact even though they spread rumors he was a Muslim and not Christian, tried to prove he was not American, along with other things he still won.
Liberal_Stalwart71
(20,450 posts)former9thward
(31,805 posts)Obama lost votes because of race but he also got votes because of race. Gore got 90% in 2000 and Kerry got 88% of the African-American vote in 2004 and Obama got 95% of this vote in 2008. He got 96% in 2012. The methodology of the study is very suspect. They use Wheeling, WV as one of two cities in their study. This is a city where coal and gun rights are very important. The authors totally ignore what effect those two issues had on the vote Obama received.
Zoeisright
(8,339 posts)And in other "fucking obvious news"...