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babylonsister

(170,964 posts)
Mon Apr 8, 2013, 08:45 PM Apr 2013

Jamelle Bouie: Did Obama Lose Votes Because of His Race?

https://prospect.org/article/did-obama-lose-votes-because-his-race

Did Obama Lose Votes Because of His Race?

Jamelle Bouie

April 8, 2013



Most observers, with the exception of those who fervently believe in a “colorblind” America, accept the role race plays in perceptions of Barack Obama. His blackness influences supporters—generating enthusiasm for his candidacy—and detractors, from right-wing provocateurs like Rush Limbaugh. to left-wing critics like Cornel West.

snip//

Overall, in the 2008 presidential election, racial animus cost Obama between three and five percentage points, the equivalent of giving John McCain a home-state advantage nationwide.

For 2012, Stephens-Davidowitz reran the experiment, to see if the results would differ now that the public is familiar with Barack Obama as a political figure. Nope. At the low end, Obama’s race cost him 3.2 percentage points in last year’s presidential election. At the high end, it cost him six full points. Nationally, Davidowitz estimates that Obama lost four points from his total as a result of racial animus. Again, giving Mitt Romney the equivalent of a home-state advantage throughout the country.

There a lot of things to take away from this, but here are two. First, this should throw (some) water on the view—held by many, including myself—that the economy is all that matters in presidential elections. Economics is an important factor in predicting elections, but it’s not the only one. Racism is just one of many variables that has a huge effect on the outcome of presidential contests.

And second? If this is correct, and Obama underperformed by roughly four points in 2008 and 2012, then there’s a chance that the Democratic brand is stronger than we think. We’ll see in 2016, but a “threepeat” for the Democratic Party might be more likely than we think, given the potentially wider support for a white Democratic nominee for president.

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babylonsister

(170,964 posts)
2. No, THIS is news...
Mon Apr 8, 2013, 09:31 PM
Apr 2013

And second? If this is correct, and Obama underperformed by roughly four points in 2008 and 2012, then there’s a chance that the Democratic brand is stronger than we think. We’ll see in 2016, but a “threepeat” for the Democratic Party might be more likely than we think, given the potentially wider support for a white Democratic nominee for president.

davidpdx

(22,000 posts)
7. That could be depending on who is on the ticket
Tue Apr 9, 2013, 10:22 AM
Apr 2013

Which means some states where he lost narrowly could swing. I think it is very possible North Carolina will swing back. Maybe Georgia and Arizona (outside chance) if there is strong turnout in the larger cities. Indiana I think will stay red. If that were true it may also mean we won't have as close of a race in Florida, Ohio and Virginia.

 

Liberal_Stalwart71

(20,450 posts)
5. Well, yes. I think racial animosity towards President Obama is PART of the reason we can't get
Tue Apr 9, 2013, 08:34 AM
Apr 2013

anything done. I fervently believe that race is part of the problem.

Thinkingabout

(30,058 posts)
4. Sure it played a part in who people voted for, this is the only reason some voted for the other ones
Mon Apr 8, 2013, 09:59 PM
Apr 2013

Don't kid yourself into thinking race did not play a part. What excites me is the fact even though they spread rumors he was a Muslim and not Christian, tried to prove he was not American, along with other things he still won.

former9thward

(31,805 posts)
8. Its likely it was a wash.
Tue Apr 9, 2013, 12:53 PM
Apr 2013

Obama lost votes because of race but he also got votes because of race. Gore got 90% in 2000 and Kerry got 88% of the African-American vote in 2004 and Obama got 95% of this vote in 2008. He got 96% in 2012. The methodology of the study is very suspect. They use Wheeling, WV as one of two cities in their study. This is a city where coal and gun rights are very important. The authors totally ignore what effect those two issues had on the vote Obama received.

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