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grantcart

(53,061 posts)
Sat Feb 11, 2012, 02:49 AM Feb 2012

More misery for Romney poll shows 3rd in Georgia, Paul might take Maine, Santorum leads MI


Man the damn is breaking on poor old Mitt;



Tomorrow Paul might win Maine. In 2008 Romney had 52% of the vote.

http://www.nationalreview.com/articles/289771/could-paul-win-maine-brian-bolduc



New poll shows Gingrich first, Santorum second and Romney a distant third in Georgia. He is only polling 16% in Georgia where he had 30% in 2008



http://savannahnow.com/latest-news/2012-02-10/poll-gingrich-santorum-lead-georgia#.TzWI4I45tNW

Gingrich leads in Georgia

ATLANTA - Former Georgia congressman Newt Gingrich is leading among primary voters in the state he represented for two decades, and ex-Sen. Rick Santorum is second in a poll released Friday.

Gingrich gets the nod from 35 percent while Santorum surged into second with 26 percent in the wake of his three primary wins this week in Missouri, Minnesota and Colorado.

Mitt Romney has 16 percent, putting him in third place a head of Ron Paul’s 5 percent. Another 18 percent were undecided when surveyed by phone Thursday evening.





And as posted in a separate thread.


In 2008 Romney took Michigan with 51% of the vote in a crowded early field of 7 candidates. It is the state he was born and raised in. His dad was a popular governor there. It fits Romney demographics as well as any remaining state.

I can't see how Romney continues if he gets trounced in Michigan. It would be a titatantic reversal of political fortune. Because it is one of his 'home' states its symbolic value is huge. A loss there would be a mortal blow to his candidacy.


PPP just tweeted that Santorum is ahead on their first night of polling.

PPP has been the most accurate pollster this year.

Here is their tweet

https://twitter.com/#%21/ppppolls/status/168143372454866944



Santorum topping Romney on the first night of our Michigan poll. This may be the biggest surge yet



Edited to add

If Ron Paul wins Maine tomorrow then Romney's campaign will be in a full fledged panic



http://www.thedailybeast.com/cheats/2012/02/10/ron-paul-has-shot-in-maine.html


Ron Paul Could Win Maine

Maine has been caucusing all week (who knew, right?) the results of which will be announced Saturday night. The turnout for Maine's caucuses are typically very low, making the results unpredictable and giving Ron Paul a real chance at his first primary win this year. Paul has been campaigning ferociously in Vacationland this week and plans to stay until the results are called. Mitt Romney, on the other hand, will arrive in Portland on Friday night for his first campaign in the state this year—though he did win the Maine caucuses in 2008.





It would be one of the greatest campaign collapses of all time.

Couldn't happen to a more deserving guy.
30 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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More misery for Romney poll shows 3rd in Georgia, Paul might take Maine, Santorum leads MI (Original Post) grantcart Feb 2012 OP
For any other "inevitable frontrunner" this would be hugely embarrassing. But Mitt seemingly..... Tarheel_Dem Feb 2012 #1
It's good news for America! yortsed snacilbuper Feb 2012 #2
rachel explained that Paul probably leads in delegates because they are chosen after the caucuses roguevalley Feb 2012 #3
remember when Obama went to Idaho? grantcart Feb 2012 #5
Well you know what they say davidpdx Feb 2012 #12
This is the first I have heard that Ron Paul might win Maine. Ruby the Liberal Feb 2012 #4
As a Mainiac in the rural 2nd district...it doesn't surprise me one bit. Old and In the Way Feb 2012 #8
What time can we expect actual results? Ruby the Liberal Feb 2012 #10
The Revenge of Semus Politicalboi Feb 2012 #6
Plenty of evidence that Romney has psychological problems Ian62 Feb 2012 #22
Run the misogynist angle as well Ian62 Feb 2012 #25
Romney has an implacable enemy. David Letterman. dimbear Feb 2012 #7
There's been a lot of serious money invested in Mitt's campaign. Old and In the Way Feb 2012 #9
Think Bain want to be the Halliburton of a Romney regime nm Ian62 Feb 2012 #23
Not only that grantcart Feb 2012 #26
The story about Seamus thucythucy Feb 2012 #14
found it grantcart Feb 2012 #27
The dogs are starting to organize grantcart Feb 2012 #16
HaHa - that's the sort of stuph that shud be used. Ian62 Feb 2012 #24
Its a movement grantcart Feb 2012 #28
LSMINSMP nm Ian62 Feb 2012 #30
Its a movement grantcart Feb 2012 #29
GOP elite thought so too :) nm Ian62 Feb 2012 #17
Even if Paul wins Maine that doesnt really help Santorum in Michigan. DCBob Feb 2012 #11
Spend a bit of cash Ian62 Feb 2012 #21
Every tire on the clown car is going in a different direction izquierdista Feb 2012 #13
I don't get it Johnny2X2X Feb 2012 #15
He didn't ignore it grantcart Feb 2012 #18
There is no way that GOP don't go to a brokered convention now Ian62 Feb 2012 #19
Cash Ian62 Feb 2012 #20

Tarheel_Dem

(31,207 posts)
1. For any other "inevitable frontrunner" this would be hugely embarrassing. But Mitt seemingly.....
Sat Feb 11, 2012, 03:02 AM
Feb 2012

has no shame, considering he's taken every position on every possible issue, and doesn't know how to be embarrassed.

roguevalley

(40,656 posts)
3. rachel explained that Paul probably leads in delegates because they are chosen after the caucuses
Sat Feb 11, 2012, 03:08 AM
Feb 2012

and most of the others had gone home by then. They are probably leading everyone right now. Story to watch I think.

grantcart

(53,061 posts)
5. remember when Obama went to Idaho?
Sat Feb 11, 2012, 03:15 AM
Feb 2012

Everybody thought he was nuts.

His campaign had studied the rules and a big win in a small state gave him all of the delegates 17, while a small victory in a big state like Ohio only gave the winner a couple delegate advantage.

Paul's people have studied the rules like Obama's people did.

davidpdx

(22,000 posts)
12. Well you know what they say
Sat Feb 11, 2012, 09:10 AM
Feb 2012

Imitation is the best form of flattery. Obama's team wrote a new playbook.

Ruby the Liberal

(26,216 posts)
4. This is the first I have heard that Ron Paul might win Maine.
Sat Feb 11, 2012, 03:12 AM
Feb 2012

Did you see Rachel tonight on his delegates?

Someone's (collective) campaigns aren't paying attention...

Old and In the Way

(37,540 posts)
8. As a Mainiac in the rural 2nd district...it doesn't surprise me one bit.
Sat Feb 11, 2012, 04:54 AM
Feb 2012

The Republican conservatives up here far more identify with Ron's message than any of the other 3. I did think that Mitt was going to win up here, but the 1% label has pretty much done him in...they just can't identify with Mitt. They can relate to Ron's simplistic messages and his anti-establishment packaging. They eat up the "small government, legalize pot, and stop the wars" message. I think a lot of the Greens up here - we have a pretty sizable chunk...are probably in with Ron as well.

 

Ian62

(604 posts)
22. Plenty of evidence that Romney has psychological problems
Sat Feb 11, 2012, 02:32 PM
Feb 2012

Tie those togather and do an ad on that

dogonroof - no sane person person would put a dog on the roof - that's for the luggage

A reporter asks him a tuff q and he loses it



Tax returns was a good one. That was so stupid to not volunteer them. He had to retract the next day. A childish mistake.

If he makes that sort of childish mistake and loses it that easily, what wud he be like in a crisis as Pres?
He has never had to deal with a real crisis. He has always had a privileged life. He has never had to deal with the sort of problems ordinary guys like you and me have to deal with. He is out of touch with ordinary American's - never lived that sort of life.

Running the USA is not like running a company. Use stuph written by GOP's e.g.
http://www.romneyexposed.com/2011/06/20/an-open-letter-about-mitt-romney-from-conservatives/

Claimed to have created 100,000 jobs at Bain. Became 10,000 or less within 6 days. Shows poor judgement (as do all of the above).

Do u really want the 47th best Gov as Pres? Or wud u rather pick someone else.
 

Ian62

(604 posts)
25. Run the misogynist angle as well
Sat Feb 11, 2012, 02:41 PM
Feb 2012

Plenty of stories about Mittens mentally torturing women in his time as Mormon leader. E.G.
You will give up your child for adoption or you will be excommunicated from the Mormon church.
You may have a 50% chance of dying, but you cannot have an abortion.

Ann Romney sounds like a Stepford wife.

Digging for info around these 2 could prove fruitful.

dimbear

(6,271 posts)
7. Romney has an implacable enemy. David Letterman.
Sat Feb 11, 2012, 03:52 AM
Feb 2012

Between Dave and Seamus, Mitt could be taking a fall.

It's embarassing me, I thought the nomination was bought and paid for.

Old and In the Way

(37,540 posts)
9. There's been a lot of serious money invested in Mitt's campaign.
Sat Feb 11, 2012, 05:00 AM
Feb 2012

The kind of money that expects an investment return. These guys want to run government like a business. A Bain Capital type of business. It's sure looking like their investment is going to be a write off loss.

grantcart

(53,061 posts)
26. Not only that
Sat Feb 11, 2012, 02:58 PM
Feb 2012

But he tapped the same people for the maximum.

He can't go back to them except to pay into the PAC.

His percent of donors who have maxed out is very high.

thucythucy

(7,983 posts)
14. The story about Seamus
Sat Feb 11, 2012, 11:11 AM
Feb 2012

seems really to have stuck in Letterman's craw. For me the best part of the monologue last night was when Dave told the audience that someone who "glitter-bombed" Romney has been sentenced to six months, while Mitt gets off scot free for abusing his poor animal.

"Every time I do 'stupid pet tricks' the PETA people are all over me. Where are they on this?!" or words to that effect.

I think Letterman had an impact in 2008 when he publicly called McCain a liar for ditching his show. McCain said he had fly down to Washington to attend to important Senate business, when in fact he was a couple of blocks away shooting a TV ad. Dave featured that story night after night after night. It wasn't McCain canceling that bothered Dave, it was the lie about "important Senate business." The bits were funny as hell, but I think the incident also made people who were watching wonder about McCain/Palin.

Best Dave moment ever: the night after Palin quit as Alaska governor: "Was it something I said?"

 

Ian62

(604 posts)
24. HaHa - that's the sort of stuph that shud be used.
Sat Feb 11, 2012, 02:36 PM
Feb 2012

Anyone contacted kennel clubs, dog lover organisations? They could be a useful demographic.

DCBob

(24,689 posts)
11. Even if Paul wins Maine that doesnt really help Santorum in Michigan.
Sat Feb 11, 2012, 08:17 AM
Feb 2012

In fact it could hurt him. Some Santorum voters could switch to Paul. I doubt any Romney types would do the same.

 

Ian62

(604 posts)
21. Spend a bit of cash
Sat Feb 11, 2012, 02:09 PM
Feb 2012

So why doesn't O spend a bit of cash on attack ads against Mittens in Michigan? Frothy hasn't got much cash. O can wait for Maine result and see what that does. Then got 2 weeks to run ads in Michigan. Cud get peeps out as well. There r a lot of Dem's in Michigan. Gotta campaign on stuph other GOP wouldn't like tho. Not what Dem's might like.

Stuph like this.
http://www.boston.com/news/globe/editorial_opinion/oped/articles/2007/07/29/Massachusetts_economic_performance_during_Romneys_term_as_governor/

4th worst out of 50 for job creation
4th worst out of 50 for cost of doing business.
At least he has got 1 consistent msg.

65% disapproval rating at end of term.

Wondering why he didn't run for re-election?
He would have been slaughtered.

Johnny2X2X

(18,732 posts)
15. I don't get it
Sat Feb 11, 2012, 12:57 PM
Feb 2012

Romney supposedly has this huge cash advantage, so why would he ignore a state like Maine? This could be an utter embarrassment for him if Ron Paul waxes him now and the delegates do matter eventually. Every delegate that goes to someone else is 1 more delegate short of the 50% that Romney will need to avoid a brokered convention.

Romney cannot afford to be ignoring a state like Maine. As big as Romney's stash of campaign cash is, if this goes all the way to the convention he'll likely spend a couple $Hundred Million just getting the nomination, that's a couple hundred million less he'll have to spend in the general election. Just a week or more ago Romney had started focusing on Obama, those days are gone now.

grantcart

(53,061 posts)
18. He didn't ignore it
Sat Feb 11, 2012, 01:15 PM
Feb 2012

But in a caucus state money only has so much advantage.

You can't really advertise, or if you do you are wasting most of it.

You have to get people to go out and spend a lot of time.

In Minnesota there were caucuses where Romney had zero votes.

However if you have a campaign like Paul's that are really bottom up its and ideal situation for them and Paul has been putting a lot of resources into supporting the ground game.

Look for the media to be surprised even if Romney manages to hold on.
 

Ian62

(604 posts)
19. There is no way that GOP don't go to a brokered convention now
Sat Feb 11, 2012, 01:45 PM
Feb 2012

Obama should step up a gear on some of the anti Mitt stuph, to get GOP as divided as possible.
And to keep the GOP in fighting going.

Mittens still got the most cash by far.
Got Fox in his pocket.
Got GOP elite in his pocket.

If Mittens does poorly, others will get more donors.
More donors to others mean more attack ads on each other.

More donors to others means Mittens has to spend more cash on fighting other GOP.
War chest lower for fight with O.
Bankers bonuses have been significantly reduced.
They r moaning about lack of cash. Poor souls. My heart bleeds - not.
They r not bottomless pits.

 

Ian62

(604 posts)
20. Cash
Sat Feb 11, 2012, 01:48 PM
Feb 2012

Lets face it O can afford to spend a few milllion spread over a few states where Romney is in a tight race with one of the others. Spend $5 or $10m now. Save $50m or more later. And about $10m less for Mittens.

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