2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumMore misery for Romney poll shows 3rd in Georgia, Paul might take Maine, Santorum leads MI
Man the damn is breaking on poor old Mitt;
Tomorrow Paul might win Maine. In 2008 Romney had 52% of the vote.
http://www.nationalreview.com/articles/289771/could-paul-win-maine-brian-bolduc
New poll shows Gingrich first, Santorum second and Romney a distant third in Georgia. He is only polling 16% in Georgia where he had 30% in 2008
http://savannahnow.com/latest-news/2012-02-10/poll-gingrich-santorum-lead-georgia#.TzWI4I45tNW
Gingrich leads in Georgia
ATLANTA - Former Georgia congressman Newt Gingrich is leading among primary voters in the state he represented for two decades, and ex-Sen. Rick Santorum is second in a poll released Friday.
Gingrich gets the nod from 35 percent while Santorum surged into second with 26 percent in the wake of his three primary wins this week in Missouri, Minnesota and Colorado.
Mitt Romney has 16 percent, putting him in third place a head of Ron Pauls 5 percent. Another 18 percent were undecided when surveyed by phone Thursday evening.
And as posted in a separate thread.
In 2008 Romney took Michigan with 51% of the vote in a crowded early field of 7 candidates. It is the state he was born and raised in. His dad was a popular governor there. It fits Romney demographics as well as any remaining state.
I can't see how Romney continues if he gets trounced in Michigan. It would be a titatantic reversal of political fortune. Because it is one of his 'home' states its symbolic value is huge. A loss there would be a mortal blow to his candidacy.
PPP just tweeted that Santorum is ahead on their first night of polling.
PPP has been the most accurate pollster this year.
Here is their tweet
https://twitter.com/#%21/ppppolls/status/168143372454866944
Santorum topping Romney on the first night of our Michigan poll. This may be the biggest surge yet
Edited to add
If Ron Paul wins Maine tomorrow then Romney's campaign will be in a full fledged panic
http://www.thedailybeast.com/cheats/2012/02/10/ron-paul-has-shot-in-maine.html
Ron Paul Could Win Maine
Maine has been caucusing all week (who knew, right?) the results of which will be announced Saturday night. The turnout for Maine's caucuses are typically very low, making the results unpredictable and giving Ron Paul a real chance at his first primary win this year. Paul has been campaigning ferociously in Vacationland this week and plans to stay until the results are called. Mitt Romney, on the other hand, will arrive in Portland on Friday night for his first campaign in the state this yearthough he did win the Maine caucuses in 2008.
It would be one of the greatest campaign collapses of all time.
Couldn't happen to a more deserving guy.
Tarheel_Dem
(31,207 posts)has no shame, considering he's taken every position on every possible issue, and doesn't know how to be embarrassed.
yortsed snacilbuper
(7,939 posts)roguevalley
(40,656 posts)and most of the others had gone home by then. They are probably leading everyone right now. Story to watch I think.
grantcart
(53,061 posts)Everybody thought he was nuts.
His campaign had studied the rules and a big win in a small state gave him all of the delegates 17, while a small victory in a big state like Ohio only gave the winner a couple delegate advantage.
Paul's people have studied the rules like Obama's people did.
davidpdx
(22,000 posts)Imitation is the best form of flattery. Obama's team wrote a new playbook.
Ruby the Liberal
(26,216 posts)Did you see Rachel tonight on his delegates?
Someone's (collective) campaigns aren't paying attention...
Old and In the Way
(37,540 posts)The Republican conservatives up here far more identify with Ron's message than any of the other 3. I did think that Mitt was going to win up here, but the 1% label has pretty much done him in...they just can't identify with Mitt. They can relate to Ron's simplistic messages and his anti-establishment packaging. They eat up the "small government, legalize pot, and stop the wars" message. I think a lot of the Greens up here - we have a pretty sizable chunk...are probably in with Ron as well.
Ruby the Liberal
(26,216 posts)Politicalboi
(15,189 posts)May Santorum run all over Mittens.
Ian62
(604 posts)Tie those togather and do an ad on that
dogonroof - no sane person person would put a dog on the roof - that's for the luggage
A reporter asks him a tuff q and he loses it
Tax returns was a good one. That was so stupid to not volunteer them. He had to retract the next day. A childish mistake.
If he makes that sort of childish mistake and loses it that easily, what wud he be like in a crisis as Pres?
He has never had to deal with a real crisis. He has always had a privileged life. He has never had to deal with the sort of problems ordinary guys like you and me have to deal with. He is out of touch with ordinary American's - never lived that sort of life.
Running the USA is not like running a company. Use stuph written by GOP's e.g.
http://www.romneyexposed.com/2011/06/20/an-open-letter-about-mitt-romney-from-conservatives/
Claimed to have created 100,000 jobs at Bain. Became 10,000 or less within 6 days. Shows poor judgement (as do all of the above).
Do u really want the 47th best Gov as Pres? Or wud u rather pick someone else.
Ian62
(604 posts)Plenty of stories about Mittens mentally torturing women in his time as Mormon leader. E.G.
You will give up your child for adoption or you will be excommunicated from the Mormon church.
You may have a 50% chance of dying, but you cannot have an abortion.
Ann Romney sounds like a Stepford wife.
Digging for info around these 2 could prove fruitful.
dimbear
(6,271 posts)Between Dave and Seamus, Mitt could be taking a fall.
It's embarassing me, I thought the nomination was bought and paid for.
Old and In the Way
(37,540 posts)The kind of money that expects an investment return. These guys want to run government like a business. A Bain Capital type of business. It's sure looking like their investment is going to be a write off loss.
Ian62
(604 posts)grantcart
(53,061 posts)But he tapped the same people for the maximum.
He can't go back to them except to pay into the PAC.
His percent of donors who have maxed out is very high.
thucythucy
(7,983 posts)seems really to have stuck in Letterman's craw. For me the best part of the monologue last night was when Dave told the audience that someone who "glitter-bombed" Romney has been sentenced to six months, while Mitt gets off scot free for abusing his poor animal.
"Every time I do 'stupid pet tricks' the PETA people are all over me. Where are they on this?!" or words to that effect.
I think Letterman had an impact in 2008 when he publicly called McCain a liar for ditching his show. McCain said he had fly down to Washington to attend to important Senate business, when in fact he was a couple of blocks away shooting a TV ad. Dave featured that story night after night after night. It wasn't McCain canceling that bothered Dave, it was the lie about "important Senate business." The bits were funny as hell, but I think the incident also made people who were watching wonder about McCain/Palin.
Best Dave moment ever: the night after Palin quit as Alaska governor: "Was it something I said?"
grantcart
(53,061 posts)grantcart
(53,061 posts)Ian62
(604 posts)Anyone contacted kennel clubs, dog lover organisations? They could be a useful demographic.
grantcart
(53,061 posts)Ian62
(604 posts)grantcart
(53,061 posts)Ian62
(604 posts)DCBob
(24,689 posts)In fact it could hurt him. Some Santorum voters could switch to Paul. I doubt any Romney types would do the same.
Ian62
(604 posts)So why doesn't O spend a bit of cash on attack ads against Mittens in Michigan? Frothy hasn't got much cash. O can wait for Maine result and see what that does. Then got 2 weeks to run ads in Michigan. Cud get peeps out as well. There r a lot of Dem's in Michigan. Gotta campaign on stuph other GOP wouldn't like tho. Not what Dem's might like.
Stuph like this.
http://www.boston.com/news/globe/editorial_opinion/oped/articles/2007/07/29/Massachusetts_economic_performance_during_Romneys_term_as_governor/
4th worst out of 50 for job creation
4th worst out of 50 for cost of doing business.
At least he has got 1 consistent msg.
65% disapproval rating at end of term.
Wondering why he didn't run for re-election?
He would have been slaughtered.
izquierdista
(11,689 posts)Johnny2X2X
(18,732 posts)Romney supposedly has this huge cash advantage, so why would he ignore a state like Maine? This could be an utter embarrassment for him if Ron Paul waxes him now and the delegates do matter eventually. Every delegate that goes to someone else is 1 more delegate short of the 50% that Romney will need to avoid a brokered convention.
Romney cannot afford to be ignoring a state like Maine. As big as Romney's stash of campaign cash is, if this goes all the way to the convention he'll likely spend a couple $Hundred Million just getting the nomination, that's a couple hundred million less he'll have to spend in the general election. Just a week or more ago Romney had started focusing on Obama, those days are gone now.
grantcart
(53,061 posts)But in a caucus state money only has so much advantage.
You can't really advertise, or if you do you are wasting most of it.
You have to get people to go out and spend a lot of time.
In Minnesota there were caucuses where Romney had zero votes.
However if you have a campaign like Paul's that are really bottom up its and ideal situation for them and Paul has been putting a lot of resources into supporting the ground game.
Look for the media to be surprised even if Romney manages to hold on.
Ian62
(604 posts)Obama should step up a gear on some of the anti Mitt stuph, to get GOP as divided as possible.
And to keep the GOP in fighting going.
Mittens still got the most cash by far.
Got Fox in his pocket.
Got GOP elite in his pocket.
If Mittens does poorly, others will get more donors.
More donors to others mean more attack ads on each other.
More donors to others means Mittens has to spend more cash on fighting other GOP.
War chest lower for fight with O.
Bankers bonuses have been significantly reduced.
They r moaning about lack of cash. Poor souls. My heart bleeds - not.
They r not bottomless pits.
Lets face it O can afford to spend a few milllion spread over a few states where Romney is in a tight race with one of the others. Spend $5 or $10m now. Save $50m or more later. And about $10m less for Mittens.