Golovkin vs Alvarez

[H2O Man]

September 16

At Las Vegas (HBO PPV): Gennady Golovkin vs. Canelo Alvarez, 12 rounds, for Golovkin's WBA/IBF/WBC middleweight title

Saturday's middleweight title fight is, on paper, the most important boxing match of 2017. It is much more important to the sport than the Mayweather vs McGregor bout, though it is unlikely to create the excitement – hence, sales – among sports fans. But for the boxing community, this promises to be among the best fights in many years.

Canelo, 27, appears to be entering his prime; GGG, 35, is probably at the tail-end of his. Both are about the same size, with GGG being 1.5 inches taller, and Canelo having a .5 inch reach advantage. Both fight in the orthodox style, and are talented counter-punchers. Golovkin has been better at putting pressure on his opposition. Both do their best with an opponent standing in front of them.

Alvarez's record is 49-1-1, with 34 knockouts. GGG is 37-0, with 33 knockouts. In general, both men have faced the top opponents in their weight classes. Alvarez's lone defeat came against Floyd Mayweather, Jr., on September 14, 2013, which means he faced one better opponent than has GGG. However, he has also faced smaller opponents than has Golovkin.

GGG has earned the respect of the boxing community for his willingness to face literally anyone his size. His last fight was in March against Danny Jacobs, who entered the ring significantly larger than Golovkin. GGG got the decision in a tough, closely-contested fight. Canelo's last bout was in May, in which he easily outpointed Julio Cesar Chavez, Jr.

A year ago, I would have favored GGG to win this fight. Now, however, I think it is as close to 50-50 going into the ring as could be in a top fight. Years ago, when the two sparred, GGG hurt Canelo early. But Alvarez has matured a great deal since then. Both men are definitely powerful punchers, and both have outstanding left hooks to the body that can render an opponent helpless on the canvas for over ten seconds. Both are impressive “finishers,” once their opponent is hurt. Canelo has an edge in defensive skills, which is important, though both can take a hard shot. Canelo has shown a pattern of tiring after nine rounds.

Who wins, and how? I'd guess that it is most likely going to a decision. However, if either man can catch the other with solid combinations, going to both the body and head, it could end sooner.

Enjoy the fight!

[True Dough]

1. Pick a winner, H2O Man!!!

50-50 isn't gonna cut it. If you had to choose, who would you put your name behind?

I agree with you, a year (or two or three) ago, GGG is a heavier favorite. Now, I'm still choosing Golovkin to win, but by a razor-thin decision. Alvarez might rock him once or twice during the fight, but I think GGG will rack up enough points to edge Canelo on the scorecards.

[H2O Man]

2. Yesterday, I thought

Canelo by decision. Then today, I thought about his getting tired, giving GGG the last three rounds.

It's a fuck of a lot harder than the Mayweather bout ......in a room of six people preparing to watch that, I said Floyd would stop Conor in the 10th. But that was easy, really.

Okay, I'll take GGG by decision.

[H2O Man]

3. PS

Four years ago tonight, I watched Floyd vs Canelo, with my sons and Marvis Frazier. A few others stopped in, and were surprised to see Marvis, who at first glance looks a lot like Smokin' Joe!

[True Dough]

5. That fight solidified Floyd's reputation as one of the greatest of all time

He's faced some criticism for waiting for opponents to come off their peaks, particularly Pacquiao, but Canelo was a dangerous challenger, perhaps a little too green. Then again, Floyd was 36, or thereabouts, so he was subject to slowing down but his defense continued to look top notch.

[H2O Man]

7. Floyd made

extraordinary fighters look ordinary. And while I understand why many people believe he avoided meeting some guys until they were older, the divisions between promoters played a role. More, guys like Mosley had turned down offers to fight Floyd years before, when Shane was the recognized A-side fighter. (And all due respect to Mosley, who fought damned near everyone!)

I think too many people judge -- hence, dislike -- Floyd due to his public image. And that is part of him. But away from the camera, he is a different person.

[JonLP24]

10. I always felt the same way

I have always been a neutral observor when it comes to this sport but I noticed more of the die hards criticized Floyd Mayweather with a lot of the similar talking points when it was obvious negotiations took a long time. Pacquaio turned down Olympic style testing so that fight could have happened a lot earlier which was more his fault than Floyd's

[H2O Man]

12. Right.

There were curious reasons why Floyd didn't meet, and beat, Pac Man a few years earlier, as I'm sure you remember. (Curious people can google Teddy Atlas's report on ESPN about Manny's camp's private communications per steriods.)

[True Dough]

4. Yes, a much more intriguing fight than Mayweather/McGregor

I wish GGG was 30 instead of 35, but that cannot be changed. Alvarez is 27 so he has youth on his side. Eight years represents a big difference in boxing -- a lot more wear and tear, reduction in speed and reflexes. But I think Golovkin may look at this fight as a capper on his stellar career and he will be determined to give it everything he can possibly muster. It might take a superhuman effort to prevail, but I believe he'll do it.

[H2O Man]

6. I was ringside

for GGG's American debut, against Proksa in 2012. His punching power was just unreal, o0n a different level than most fighters. And Proksa was able to take a lot of punishment. My son and I could see welts raising on the guy's body, that were not as clear as when we watched the re-run of the fight on tv the following day. It reminded me of years ago, when my brother was in John "the Beast" Mugabi's camp for a few days before he faced Hagler. He told me he never had seen anyone punch that hard. GGG has, of course, a superior delivery system than John did.

[True Dough]

9. Hagler/Mugabi was a classic

I wonder how Hagler would have fared against the best fighters of the modern era? He just missed out on the rise of Bernard Hopkins, who improved with age (not to the very end, but he was a better fighter later in his career). Imagine Hagler vs. Roy Jones Jr. in their primes.

Or Hagler vs. GGG. That would be a killer fight.


Some highlights for those who never saw the Mugabi bout:

[H2O Man]

13. Great fight.

It took a lot out of both men. And that's why Ray came out and challenged Marvin. My brother was ringside, and sent me outrageous photographs.

I think a prime Hagler was the best middleweight champion. Lots of other greats, and I respect others picking Monzon or others. But I think Hagler was the most complete middleweight ever.

[JonLP24]

8. I would like to see McGregor continue to box

I never watch UFC but I respect the skills & different styles. McGregor's style is interesting, the boxing commentator on Showtime mentioned he kept trying different angles on Mayweather and McGregor said that Mayweather has the tools to be successful in UFC saying he has a great understanding of frames and head position. It was a very fascinating fight to watch. No matter how old Mayweather is he can always out think an opponent but I would like to see more of McGregor in boxing. I thought he did considering his first pro bout was with Mayweather.

I'll watch this fight a week after it airs as usual.

[H2O Man]

14. He'd need to

be willing to work his way up. The young lions his size would hurt him if he continued at the level he was at with Floyd. If he had a good trainer, he has the potential, of course. But it's important to remember he was facing an inactive, 40-year old, who barely trained. Floyd didn't even spar in the last four weeks of preparation.

[JonLP24]

16. Good points

Even though I'd like to see more of him in boxing he probably won't get involved in something unless there is real money in it. Working his way up doesn't sound like a lot of money.

[Mosby]

11. Triple g is going to kick ass

I don't think it's going to be very close, canelo needs to stay away from golovkins power, and hope he doesn't get in a lucky shot or two. He's a good puncher himself but trip g has shown he can take a lot of punches if necessary. Golovkin can be a very patient fighter and is well conditioned so he's potent even in the late rounds, don't be decieved by his age.

I see a golovkin tko in 8-10 but he definitely could get a big combo thru earlier leading to a ko.

[H2O Man]

15. Interesting.

I have no argument with the very real possibility of that being the outcome.

I'm curious what you think about this: Canelo is very good at doing the Mexican head-turn when punches approach his head. It's a great defensive move, but carries a real risk against a combination puncher. GGG and his trainer are certainly aware of this. What do you think Golovkin plans to do in response? (I could see a double right-cross, or maybe the Micky Ward left hook to the head, then to the body.)

[Mosby]

17. a left jab

Last edited Fri Sep 15, 2017, 03:45 AM - Edit history (1)

Followed by an overhand right. He throws them so fast it's hard to see them coming.

Golovkin will work the body in the early rounds to try and slow alvarez down, but canelo will be doing the same. Alvarez is a good combo puncher but he doesn't have triple Gs power.

Golovkin needs to pay a lot of attention to spacing, and avoid getting inside and brawling with Alvarez.

[H2O Man]

18. I agree.

One of my favorite things that Max Kellerman said was that GGG stalks his opponent much like the great Joe Louis did. He is a predator in the ring. His jab allows him, exactly as you noted, to find the correct distance between himself and his prey.

[malaise]

19. Missing you in GD

[H2O Man]

20. Finishing an essay

(in between rounds of lawn- and housework!).

[malaise]

21. Cool

[H2O Man]

22. I'm going to

post it now. Thus, you have the opportunity to be the first -- and likely only -- person to read it!

[malaise]

23. Not likely

[StevieM]

24. Is there going to be a unification fight between Anthony Joshua and Deontay Wilder anytime soon?

I read that Joshua has to fight some guy named Luis Ortiz, but then I read that Wilder was going to fight him. If he loses to Wilder then doesn't that take him out of contention for an immediate fight against Joshua?

Is it possible that the unification fight will happen sometime early next year?

[H2O Man]

25. It's very possible.

First, Luis Ortiz is a very dangerous opponent. He has the skills and power to challenge any of the top heavyweights. In a sense, he's similar to Sam Peter, but with Cuban boxing skills.

If AJ wins, I believe he will likely fight Deontay in early 2018. (If Ortiz wins, he'll likely fight Wilder in May of '18.)

All three are, in my opinion, gifted fighters. And it's always best when the heavyweight division has talented, exciting fighters.

[StevieM]

26. What I read was the Joshua was supposed to fight Ortiz but now they have scheduled a fight between

Wilder and Ortiz. Here is the article:

http://www.boxingscene.com/wilder-ortiz-jacobs-lipinets-showtime-tripleheader-play--120421

I was wondering if losing to Wilder would cost Ortiz his match against Joshua. I am not really sure how that works in boxing.

Two undefeated heavyweights fighting in a unification match could really bring about a lot of interest, probably the most boxing has gotten in quite some time.

[JonLP24]

27. It is close to 50/50 as far as picks on Streak for the Cash

so far 43.6 for Gennady Golovkin (KAZ) -- Canelo Alvarez 56.4

I picked GG just a guess.

http://streak.espn.com/en/entry

[Mosby]

29. A draw is a joke

Last edited Sun Sep 17, 2017, 12:53 AM - Edit history (3)

Golovkin won 9-3.

That judge that called it 118-110 for canelo is dirty.


http://www.espn.com/video/clip?id=20729255

http://www.espn.com/video/clip/_/id/20729354

[JonLP24]

30. A push?

I still have a -1 L streak.

http://streak.espn.com/en/entryStreaks?entryID=6437519&segmentID=95

Are you kidding me? 50-50 H2O Man aced the boxing prediction

[True Dough]

31. Didn't see the fight

but I've been reading some boxing analyst's thoughts and checked out a boxing discussion forum and most agree with you, that 118-110 is a farce. Many figured GGG won it.

EDIT:

Also just read this -- Golovkin outlanded Alvarez, 218 to 169, according to CompuBox, and landed more punches overall in 10 of 12 rounds. He also landed more jabs, 108 to 55.