Boxing: Canelo vs Khan
May 7 (HBO PPV)
Las Vegas: Saul “Canelo” Alvarez vs. Amir Khan; 12 rounds; for Canelo’s WBC middleweight title.
When I first read that Khan was moving up two weight classes to challenge Alvarez, I immediately thought it would be a low-risk title defense for Canelo. Not only is the young Mexican warrior among the most talented fighters in the sport today, but Khan’s career has stalled since he lost the junior welterweight crown to Danny Garcia in 2014. Like Khan, Alvarez has generally fought significantly smaller opposition -- he frequently enters the ring at 180 pounds, twenty above the middleweight “limit.” Tonight, he will likely outweigh Khan by up to twenty-five pounds.
Twice in his career, Amir Khan has lost by devastating knockout. He has what is known as a “glass jaw” in boxing. It’s not that he has shown the tendency to quit; rather, his legs turn to rubber when he gets clipped on the chin. Khan did dig deep, to pull out a decision over the tough, hard-hitting Marcos Maidana in 2010; however, he has only had one significant win since that fight, when he won a lopsided decision over Devon Alexander in 2014.
Despite his failure to earn a fight against boxing’s elite champions, Amir has believed that both Floyd Mayweather and Manny Pacquiao were obligated to give him a shot at their titles. This, of course, would have provided him with his biggest pay day -- in fact, more money than he has earned thus far in his career. But those fights could not have made for a good pay check for either Floyd or Manny. It’s hard to convince the public that a guy who has been flattened twice by moderate opposition, and who had not earned a title shot, would give them their money’s worth in a pay per view fight.
Just as he had not earned a title fight in either the welterweight or junior middleweight divisions, he really hasn’t made a case in the middleweight division. Yet, from name recognition alone, he “earned” the shot at Canelo. The middleweight champion was looking for a tune-up, in anticipation of a potential showdown with Gennady Golovkin in the fall.
Should Canelo win tonight, a fight against “GGG” would be the biggest in the sport. Golovkin, who owns the other middleweight “titles,” is eager for the bout to be made. The boxing community wants the fight to happen. But Canelo has yet to commit to it. And that is a good thing, at this time, because he needs to be focused on Khan for now.
As good as Canelo is -- and he is a potentially great champion -- he has flaws that Khan is hoping to exploit. He is an efficient counter-puncher, who throws powerful, accurate punches. He is considered a hard puncher, although he has actually only had one intense knockout victory in recent years -- when he destroyed an over-matched James Kirkland last May. Still, he has enough punching power to hurt Khan with either hand ….and, if he hurts Khan, he definitely has the ability to end the fight early.
This, of course, raises the question: why did Amir Khan challenge Canelo? Is it for one last pay-day, the biggest he can earn now? Or does he really believe that he has a better than 50-50 chance of pulling off a huge upset? Let’s look at it in the context of Khan’s best -- perhaps only -- chance.
Some “experts” are saying that Khan will attempt to use the blueprint from Floyd Mayweather’s one-sided victory over Canelo. This disqualifies them from being taken seriously. The very last thing Amir Khan will try to do is copy Floyd’s absolute dominance of ring geography. Amir lacks those gifts that made Floyd unique -- his reflexes, his uncanny grasp of distance, and also his rock-solid jaw.
Rather, Khan is looking at two of Canelo’s decision wins over tall, rangy boxers -- Austin Trout in 2013, and Erislandy Lara in 2014. The Trout bout was close, with Canelo earning the nod by way of a knockdown; the Lara bout was a disputed split-decision. Both Trout and Lara showed that Canelo has difficulty with good boxers who have foot movement.
Canelo is by nature a counter-puncher. He depends on catching his opponent moving into his power. He is not a particularly “fast” fighter in the ring -- with the exception of his hand-speed. But, although he is extraordinarily difficult to hit with hard punches to the head -- he has perfected the Mexican art of the “head-roll” -- and because he has shown that he can take a hard punch those few times he has been clipped, Canelo is not a great offensive fighter. Against Trout and Lara, he lacked the foot-speed and mobility required to “cut the ring off” against moving targets.
Khan will attempt to pile up points by keeping his jab in Canelo’s face. It might not land cleanly to score points in otherwise slow rounds. Thus, Khan wants a boring fight, in which he wins seven rounds. And, in theory, he has that ability.
The two problems he’ll face are that he needs to be able to sting Canelo, and get his respect with the occasional punches he puts together behind the jab, and closely related, his ability to remain disciplined. Khan is not “mentally tough” in the manner of a Mayweather or Pacquiao. Unlike those two, Amir has rarely shown the ability to be relaxed in a fight.
In fact, Khan is one of the most emotional fighters I’ve seen at the top levels of boxing. Just as being relaxed conserves energy, being anxious burns up enormous amounts of energy. This includes being anxious to inflict pain on the opponent, as well as fear of being on the receiving end of that same pain. Those who have followed Khan’s career know that he wears his anxiety on his face in the ring: his eyes are widely opened, and he appears uncoordinated while taking exaggerated strides around the ring. This results in poor balance, which greatly reduces both punching power, and the ability to take a punch.
Unlike both Trout and Lara, Khan is limited in what he can throw while moving. Even when he displays self-control, the only meaningful punch he can throw while on the move is his jab. Make no mistake, he has a very good jab, and can double or triple it up. And the jab is hugely important, for everything should come off the jab -- regardless of if that jab lands cleanly or not.
But to land the cross or hook, Khan has to stop and plant his hind foot. And virtually every time he has been hurt in the ring, including some victories as well as his loses, it is the result of his opponent’s timing him when he plants that foot. (This is why Canelo will be looking at Khan from the shoulders down in the ring, rather than attempting to look at his face.)
It is possible that Khan will fight at a higher, more disciplined fight than he ever has before, and win a close decision. But I do not think he has the mental strength to do so. While both fighters have had problems with endurance in the late rounds, a tired Canelo can destroy a tired Khan. Whereas Khan needs to be perfect for twelve rounds to win, Canelo doesn’t. Being so much bigger should allow him to wear Khan down, even in the rounds Khan wins. I expect that Canelo will win the fight by TKO in the later rounds.
Enjoy the fight!
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