Mayweather vs Pacquiao

[H2O Man]

“I’m a boxer who believes that the object of the sport is to hit and not get hit.”
-- Floyd Mayweather, Jr.


On May 2nd, Floyd Mayweather, Jr., and Manny Pacquiao will meet in a scheduled 12-round bout at the MGM Grand, in Las Vegas, Nevada. We are currently 17 days away from the biggest money-making event in sports. It is a title unification bout, with the Champion Mayweather putting his WBC welterweight and WBA junior middleweight titles on the line, and Paquiao bringing his WBO welterweight title to the table.

Floyd’s record is a perfect 47 - 0, with 26 coming by knockout. Pacquiao is 57 - 5 - 2, with 38 knockout victories, and 3 defeats by KO. At 5’ 8”, with a 72-inch reach, Floyd is taller by 1.5 inches, and has a 5-inch reach advantage. Floyd fights orthodox, or right-handed, while Manny is southpaw, or left-handed. Also, at 38, Floyd is two years older than Pac Man.

Manny turned pro in 1995; Floyd did so in 1996. Floyd has fought 363 rounds as a pro; while Manny has fought 407 rounds. One of the more significant differences is that Mayweather has taken relatively few punches in his career, and has rarely been “stung,” much less hurt; while Manny has had a tougher career, and has taken lots of punishment, including his devastating knockout lose to Juan Manuel Marquez in late 2012. While his other knockout loses came by way of body punches, he was knocked unconscious for an extended period just four fights ago.

Although the bout is being promoter -- correctly -- as a “super fight,” the majority of the boxing community’s experts are predicting that Floyd will most likely win a one-sided decision. If they are correct, it should take Floyd about three rounds to figure Pacquiao out, and then dominate him.

Many of Floyd’s opponents have, despite their pre-fight predictions and promises, found it very hard to compete with Mayweather in the ring. Tough guys such as Canelo Alvarez have actually been intimidated, to the point where he stopped trying to win, and was instead satisfied to go the distance. This is because Floyd is very difficult to hit, plus his speed and strength combine to make his counter-punches far harder than opponents’ have assumed they would be. Indeed, in boxing, speed is power.

Another school of thought is that not only is Pacquiao often reckless in the ring -- and I promise that you will hear the word “reckless” coming from the Mayweather camp as the fight gets closer -- but he isn’t cut out to be satisfied with a “safe” decision loss. First, of course, it is important to remember that this is Manny Pacquiao, an all-time great champion. So, not only will he roll the dice, but he will be extremely dangerous when he does so.

More than anyone that Mayweather has ever met before, Pacquiao likes to land the last punch in every exchange. And, with his extraordinary footwork, sliding from side-to-side, to create new openings, Pac Man delivers powerful punches.

I’ll likely change my mind again, at least once per day, but at this point, I’m thinking that Floyd will stop Manny in between nine and ten rounds. I think that after four rounds, Floyd will bloody Pacquiao up, and beat him up. I think trainer Freddie Roach will throw in the towel, to protect Manny from himself.

What is your prediction?

[jaysunb]

1. Exactly the same as you. n/t

[H2O Man]

8. Yep.

I find it interesting that the majority of the top fighters that I've seen (or read) interviewed are all predicting about the same thing.

[trumad]

2. I'm telling you now..

This will be Floyd's defining fight. If you want to see every trick in his bag....this is the fight.

The dude will bring the house and he will dominate Manny.

TKO? I don't know...but lopsided scorecard...indeed.

Mho of course.

[H2O Man]

7. I agree.

My buddy is no longer allowed to provide up-dates on how the camp is going, but I have been very impressed by what he told me early on.

You might have heard this: Floyd has been having tree trunks delivered, for him to chop up with an ax. That's one of my very favorite "old school" training techniques. It is, of course, to develop punching-power -- and it is specific for building the "snap" when you turn a punch over, especially when punching slightly downward.

Corley had told one journalist that Floyd "is going to beat the shit out of Pacquiao." And that is exactly why he's doing old school. You definitely nailed it: Floyd intends this to be his defining bout.

Clearly, Manny is a tough, tough fighter, and is capable of going 12 hard rounds. He won't lay down. But, he gets reckless, even when he's winning. Under pressure, he becomes even more reckless. Floyd's turning the punches over now, right upon impact (like Ali), and this means Manny will be bleeding by the 7th round. Once he starts bleeding, he will begin rolling the dice. And that increases the chances of Floyd stopping him.

Enjoy the fight! I'm sure that we'll talk more, beforehand. (Come on up to NYS, and watch it here. You deserve a vacation.)

[Auggie]

3. I said Pacquiao weeks ago ...

it was a total guess. I'll stick with it.

[H2O Man]

6. Pacquiao can win.

In my opinion, he's not likely to knock Floyd out. Mayweather is almost impossible to hit with two punches in a row, and that's generally how one hurts his opponent. While in theory, anyone can be knocked out cold -- with a single blow -- Floyd's defensive skills, his strong chin, and his being bigger, make that unlikely.

If I were advising Manny, I'd focus on two things he does (and that make him an all-time great fighter): he is able to slip in and out of exchanges by moving to either side; and he tends to throw the last blow(s) in almost every exchange.

Floyd will often hold back in exchanges. He looks to catch his opponent coming straight in, the punishes him, then ducks out to one side. If Manny can get off quick combinations -- even if only 50% of the punches land cleanly -- he can win rounds.

Every round is actually a fight in and of itself. Manny will need to pace himself, by fighting at different paces in different rounds. And with his explosive offense, he won't need to win all three minutes of a given round. He just needs to be busier, and land enough punches to separate himself in the judges' minds.

Pacquiao is definitely one of the most intelligent fighters of the modern era. He knows how to pace himself very well -- so well, that he generally sets a pace that few opponents can match for more than three or four rounds. He is brilliant in his ability to measure and access how much strength his opponents have, in any given round. A big part of that, of course, is in his feeling how much physical resistance the foe has when hit with a solid shot (including if it is blocked).

But he does more than that. Much more. If you get to watch films of his past bouts, as this one approaches, there are a few things to look for per his measuring and accessing. A good one is when he jabs straight into the opponent's chest. That's such an important measuring stick; you get to feel if it moves him back on his heels, for example, meaning he is losing strength. Or, in clinches, not only pushing downward, usually from the back of the guy's neck and head (hugely important measure!), but also by pushing against the guy's biceps, or actually pulling on it from having your hand behind the bicep. (These are all things Floyd does, much like Ali did years ago!)

If Manny notes that Floyd is tiring, then he'll step up his pace, and land crisp combinations. And Pacquiao puts combinations together as well as anyone ever has.

[Auggie]

11. "Every round is actually a fight in and of itself."

I never heard it put this way. But it is, isn't it? Thanks for the insight.

[H2O Man]

12. Indeed, it is.

That's one of the most basic things that I teach young fighters. And I think that it is helpful, in terms of people's understanding of not just "how" a guy like Pacquiao or Mayweather fight, but "why" they fight like they do.

[JonLP24]

4. My mom who works for a cable & satellite provider says this is the most expensive PPV bout

in history.

Says the fight costs $120 per buy.

[H2O Man]

5. Yep.

It works out if a group of people pitch in to get it.

I expect my house to fill up on fight night. With the lay-out,we can comfortably seat 30 people. I've had as many as 70 before, but it gets kind of crowded.

The majority of guys that will be here are "retired" amateur and professional fighters. We'll have a good spread of food and drinks out in the other rooms. As it is near both my son and cousin's birthdays, it makes for a good time.

[frylock]

15. sounds like a blast!

I miss those days when my friends and I would do the same during those great middleweight bouts of the '80s.

[twogunsid]

9. Mayweather by decision....

I think it will go the distance but it will be a one-sided fight with Mayweather winning almost every round.

It has been a long time since a fight this big. Even the racetracks are offering a Kentucky Derby/Big Fight Extravaganza on the first Saturday in May. I hope everyone enjoys this because I don't see another fight this big and this important in the near future.

[H2O Man]

10. Right.

It's been interesting to see boxing writers attempt to compare it to a "super fight" from the past. It is, however, only like previous "super fights" in that it is unique. It isn't like the "Fight of the Century" between Frazier and Ali for many reasons, yet it will be drawing a similar amount of attention. But it's not two undefeated champions.

Rather than any recent bout, I think that it might come closest to the July 4, 1910 fight between the great Jack Johnson and undefeated former champion Jim Jeffries. In many ways, Floyd is the modern version of Johnson: lots of people despise him, and want to see someone -- anyone -- beat him in the ring. Like Johnson, Mayweather is a defensive genius in the ring ....and rather self-centered outside the ring.

I think it's safe to say that, for at very least 25 years, there will not be a boxing match of this magnitude. Enjoy the fight!

[zeemike]

13. Had to come here to see what you had to say about the fight.

Pretty much as I expected.
But I don't count Pac Man out...He has some cagey moves.

[H2O Man]

14. In post #6

I describe how I think Pacquiao can win. And definitely -- he can. I mean, we are talking about one of the greatest fighters in boxing's history.

All he has to do is score one more point than Floyd, and at the end of 12 rounds, if two judges score it that way, Manny's hand gets raised.

One factor that I didn't mention is that Floyd, for all of his defensive skills -- which really are near-perfect -- will move way off balance, at least a couple times per fight. If Manny lands a punch at that time, Floyd will go down. Even though he wouldn't be hurt, it's a knockdown. And then, if at the end of the bout, they've both won six rounds, Manny comes out a point ahead.

I'd never count a great fighter out. Especially one as disciplined and motivated as Manny Pacquiao.