Iraqi army losing hold on north to Sunni and Kurdish forces as troops desert

[jakeXT]

Soldiers are deserting a beleaguered Iraqi army as it struggles to keep its hold on the northern half of Iraq in the face of escalating hostility from Sunni Arabs and Kurds who dominate in the region.
Around the oil city of Kirkuk Kurdish troops have advanced south to take over military positions abandoned by the army, while in Baghdad senior Iraqi politicians say that for the first time there is talk of partitioning the country.
The current crisis was sparked on 23 April when the Iraqi army attacked a sit-in protest in the Sunni Arab town of Hawijah, killing at least 50 people and injuring 110. Outraged Sunni Arab protesters have since stepped up their demonstrations against the Shia-led government. Demonstrators are increasingly protected by armed men, some of whom are accused of dragging five military intelligence soldiers in civilian clothes from a car that came near a protest in Ramadi and killing them.
There are signs that the Iraqi army can no longer cope with a crisis in which it is confronting both Sunni Arabs and Kurds. Many soldiers prefer to desert the army rather than shoot at protesters said Najmaldin Karim, the Kurdish Governor of Kirkuk, where Hawijah is situated, in an interview with The Independent. Most deserters are Sunni, Mr Karim said, but he added that some are Shia who don’t want to fight in strange places for something they don’t believe in.  

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/iraqi-army-losing-hold-on-north-to-sunni-and-kurdish-forces-as-troops-desert-8591762.html

[House of Roberts]

1. If they partition Iraq

that makes Joe Biden's prediction come true. He said it should be divided a long time ago.

[William deB. Mills]

2. Collapsing Iraq?

If the authoritarian, sectarian regime set up by the retreating colonialists should lose authority, all sorts of opportunities would emerge. Neo-Cons would get another shot at all that oil. Washington, Riyadh, and Tehran would come face-to-face for an opportunity reminiscent of all those partitions of Poland that you long since forgot about. Tel Aviv I did not mention because it would surely have no interest at all in exploiting its regional nuclear monopoly to interfere. Ankara...well, exactly where is Davutoglu's good neighbor policy these days, anyway? Oh, yeah, Syria...Well, no need to dwell on the embarrassing. Once the Kurds get their nationalism going again, Ankara will have no choice but to defend its territorial integrity. One might be cynical and conclude that everyone will disagree about everything but no...there is one thing that everyone will agree on: we all have the right, indeed, the duty, to prevent Turkish Kurds and Iranian Kurds and Iraqi Kurds and, it must be added, Syrian Kurds from so much as tipping their hats to each other. All manner of historical analogies come to mind...visions of the Balkans, for one, but most of all, I foresee all sorts of Neo-Con chickens coming home to roost.

[bemildred]

3. Potemkin armies are like that. nt

[William deB. Mills]

4. Kurds Start Talks With Baghdad

The Kurds have now reached agreement with Baghdad on a list of issues on which the two sides will negotiate [http://iswiraq.blogspot.com/2013/05/2013-iraq-update-18b-protesters-divided.html]. However, this compromise has occurred against the background of a resurgent al Qua'ida, which gained access to Iraq as a result of Washington's mismanagement of its 2003 invasion. The rising violence in Iraq is looking more and more like renewed civil war [http://www.counterpunch.org/2013/05/06/the-civil-war-in-iraq-has-already-begun/].

Watch for:
1. Results of promised trip to Kurdistan by Maliki;
2. Linkages between Syrian and Iraqi violence.

Comparison of the context of 2003 and 2013 shows cause for concern. In 2003, al Qua'ida was not a factor; Iran was isolated from Iraq - on the sidelines and not exactly in U.S. crosshairs, and the U.S. was in control of the battlefield, while the rest of the region was relatively calm. Today, Tehran and Baghdad are effectively allied; the U.S. has Iran precisely in its crosshairs, with Likudniks pushing hard for war; U.S. troops are gone from Iraq; neighboring Syria is out-of-control; al Qua'ida is already resurgent. Bin Laden may not be around to enjoy the fruits of his labors, but the seeds of chaos he planted, fertilized by Neo-Con incompetence, are sprouting.