Solar Market Seen Exceeding $134 Billion by 2020, Navigant Says

[jpak]

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-07-10/solar-market-seen-exceeding-134-billion-by-2020-navigant-says.html

Developers will spend more than $134 billion annually by 2020 on solar-energy systems, up 51 percent from this year, as falling panel prices make electricity produced from sunlight cost-competitive with power from other sources, according to a report from Navigant Consulting Inc. (NCI).

Growing demand for photovoltaic systems in emerging markets including Chile, South Africa and Saudi Arabia will be bolstered in other regions by increased use of both large, utility-scale power plants and smaller, distributed generation systems, the Chicago-based company said in an e-mailed statement today.

“By the end of 2020, solar PV is expected to be cost-competitive with retail electricity prices, without subsidies, in a significant portion of the world,” Dexter Gauntlett, a Navigant analyst, said in the statement.

The company expects a total of 438 gigawatts of solar capacity to be installed from this year through 2020.

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[kristopher]

1. 438 gigawatts? Is that a lot?

[jpak]

2. I don't know...

[FBaggins]

4. Let's see how that works out.

Let's say that we install 35 GWs of solar this year globally. That's about a 12% growth rate from last year.

Growth over the eight-year period will likely fluctuate with incentives, but let's assume that it maintains the 12% rate. That comes pretty close to hitting the 438 GW mark over the eight years. So we'll take that as the model.

That puts the 2020 market at just over 77GWs.

$134 Billion for 77 Gws of solar isn't particularly cheap. even offshore wind today is cheaper than that (accounting for CF).

[kristopher]

9. Judging by how it pulled the nuclear apologists from their dank burrows...

...I'd say it probably is.

[FBaggins]

3. Depends on how short your measuring stick it.

What proportion of projected 2020 global electricity demand would then be met by solar?

For solar... this would be an incredible success story. Compared to other generation sources? Well... not so much. Let's take nuclear power as a comparison (for no particular reason):

China alone plans to have 73 GWs of new nuclear generation either completed or under construction in 2020. We can quibble about how close most of the new solar will come to Germany's capacity factor experience, but those 73 GWs of chinese nuclear capacity will almost certainly produce more (and more reliable) electricity than 438 GWs of solar will...

... and it won't cost them $134 Billion annually to do it...

... and around 2035 as those solar panels are starting to retire - the nuclear plants will still have several decades of life left in them...

... and that's just China. The projection for solar is for the entire world.


But hey... don't worry. It's not the size of your stick that matters. It's how you use it.

[FBaggins]

6. Let's check that measuring stick again...

...

Kristopher (2011 version) - "Within ten years it is hoped/expected/thought that global solar manufacturing capacity will hit 1000GWp/year"

Kristopher (2013 version) - "438 GWs over eight years is a lot... right?"

[NickB79]

5. I keep seeing claims that PV prices will continue to drop into the future

But we've seen in the past two years multiple American, Chinese and German companies declare bankrupcy/insolvency or sell off their solar divisions due to panel prices being too low to maintain profitability.

[FBaggins]

7. Manufacturing prices should continue to drop.

It's just that right now retail sales prices are well below manufacturing prices for a high percentage of the supply.

[wtmusic]

8. What Navigant Doesn't Say: We're Paid Vast Sums to Hype the Solar Industry

What a joke.

http://www.navigant.com/industries/energy/renewable_energy/solar-consultants/