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kristopher

(29,798 posts)
Thu Apr 25, 2013, 02:40 PM Apr 2013

Renewables expected to account for 69-74% of new power capacity thru 2030

The rate of change in the model's results is remarkable. The question is, of course, how predictive it is of future developments. I attribute the volatility of the modeling to game changing behavior from China and Germany. The rest of Far East Asia, India and Africa are still wild cards whose behavior isn't significant enough to strongly influence predictions on demand and the consequent buildup of manufacturing. I think the modeling 5 years from now is going to be radically different than what we see now - and it will be in a good way. YMMV

Bloomberg New Energy Finance
STRONG GROWTH FOR RENEWABLES EXPECTED THROUGH TO 2030

Improvements in cost-competitiveness means that renewables will account for between 69% and 74% of new power capacity added by 2030 worldwide, despite current difficult market conditions


London and New York, 22 April 2013 – New research by analysts at Bloomberg New Energy Finance show that annual investment in new renewable power capacity is set to rise by anywhere from two and a half times to more than four and a half times between now and 2030. The likeliest scenario implies a jump of 230%, to $630bn per year by 2030, driven by further improvements in the cost-competitiveness of wind and solar technologies relative to fossil fuel alternatives, as well as an increase in the roll-out of non-intermittent clean energy sources like hydro, geothermal and biomass.

....

Bloomberg New Energy Finance’s predictions for world energy markets to 2030 come from its Global Energy and Emissions Model, which integrates all of the main determinants of the energy future, including economic prosperity, global and regional demand growth, the evolution of technology costs, likely developments in policies to combat climate change, and trends in fossil fuel markets. Together these form three scenarios: “New Normal”, “Barrier Busting” and “Traditional Territory”.

The New Normal scenario is considered the most likely. It shows the investment requirement for new clean energy assets in the year 2030 at $630bn (in nominal terms), more than three times the investment in the renewable energy capacity that was built in 2012. This 2030 investment figure is 35% higher than that produced in Bloomberg New Energy Finance’s last global forecast a year ago, and the projection for total installed renewable energy capacity by that date is 25% higher than in that previous forecast, at 3,500GW.

In the power sector, the research company’s latest forecasts project that 70% of new power generation capacity added between 2012 and 2030 will be from renewable technologies (including large hydro). Only 25% will be in the form of coal, gas or oil, the remaining being nuclear. The scenarios are based on Bloomberg New Energy Finance’s latest projections for coal and gas prices. For gas, these assume prices stabilise in real terms at $6, $9 and $11/MMBtu in the US, Europe and the Asia respectively.

For comparison, the International Energy Agency’s New Policies scenario forecasts that 57% of power capacity added during this period will be from renewable resources (including large hydro)....


http://about.bnef.com/press-releases/strong-growth-for-renewables-expected-through-to-2030/


ETA: This writeup on the Bloomberg research from MotherJones is worth reading in full. The charts they selected deserve sharing as a reminder of where this type of growth, should it occur, will leave us:

Charting new generation only:


Total generation:


MotherJones writeup here:
http://www.motherjones.com/blue-marble/2013/04/charts-renewable-energy-fossil-fuels
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Renewables expected to account for 69-74% of new power capacity thru 2030 (Original Post) kristopher Apr 2013 OP
You need to edit the title. FBaggins Apr 2013 #1

FBaggins

(26,694 posts)
1. You need to edit the title.
Thu Apr 25, 2013, 02:56 PM
Apr 2013

Either match the article, or correctly summarize that it's a percentage of new power capacity.

It most certainly won't be 69-74% of new power.

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