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wtmusic

(39,166 posts)
Thu Apr 11, 2013, 09:28 PM Apr 2013

German Coal and Solar Energy: A Self Defeating Scenario


About 50 coal-fired power plants, like the one in Bergheim, Germany, are scheduled to begin operating in Europe in the next five years.

"8.4 GW. This is the total capacity of coal plants under construction in Germany today. Add this to what was opened last year and we have a total of 10.6 GW of new coal online in the years 2012-2015.

These numbers probably don’t mean too much to the uninitiated, so let us compare them with those from Germany’s much lauded solar industry, which has already reached a world leading 32.7 GW. By capacity this is three times higher than the new coal plants. Unfortunately capacity does not tell the whole story: the sun does not always shine in Germany. To work out the average power solar will produce all we need is the capacity factor, which is just under 10% in Germany. I’ll just round this up and say that Germany’s solar panels are producing on average 3.3 GW of juice.

How about the coal plants? Let’s work backwards and ask what the average capacity factor would need to be for these new coal plants to match the output from all of Germany’s solar panels. A simple bit of arithmetic and it comes out at about 31%. A capacity factor of 31% however is remarkably low, and one would expect these plants to struggle financially if they were running that infrequently, as is now happening with gas plants. Perhaps the historic coal capacity factors are a better guide. These are just over 51%. In other words if these new coal plants produce at this level they will produce 65% more electricity than all of Germany’s solar panels.(The exact capacity factors are difficult to predict here. The nuclear shutdown, and the ongoing woes of the Germany gas plant industry, will likely push the capacity factors upwards. On the other hand increasing renewables may do the opposite, but the future growth of renewables is now in doubt.)"

http://theenergycollective.com/robertwilson190/208216/german-coal-and-solar-self-defeating-scenario
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German Coal and Solar Energy: A Self Defeating Scenario (Original Post) wtmusic Apr 2013 OP
One step forward pscot Apr 2013 #1
Not at all. kristopher Apr 2013 #2
Yes, but pscot Apr 2013 #3
Have you seen this? kristopher Apr 2013 #4

kristopher

(29,798 posts)
2. Not at all.
Thu Apr 11, 2013, 11:04 PM
Apr 2013

The article in the OP has no meaning at all.

The last sentence in this piece is most relevant:

My Energy Outlook For Germany 2025

<snip, snip, snip>

So, my advice to everyone: Prepare for a lot of disinformation about the developments in Germany to head in your direction, and enjoy the show.


Read more at http://cleantechnica.com/2013/04/03/my-energy-outlook-for-germany-2025/#GbHhtYQXXpQk8uP1.99

pscot

(21,023 posts)
3. Yes, but
Thu Apr 11, 2013, 11:20 PM
Apr 2013
Germany's few remaining hard coal mines will close by 2018 when crucial government subsidies end, but brown coal mines are scheduled to operate through 2045. Many people believe they will actually run longer since new mines and new power plants have been proposed


Brown coal is dirty stuff. I'm not sure it compares favorably with tar sand oil.

http://www.earthisland.org/journal/index.php/elist/eListRead/germany_to_expand_brown_coal_mines/

kristopher

(29,798 posts)
4. Have you seen this?
Thu Apr 11, 2013, 11:29 PM
Apr 2013
http://www.nature.com/polopoly_fs/7.9855.1365426219!/image/energy.jpg_gen/derivatives/fullsize/energy.jpg

That is the middle of the road scenario. Expectations are that the pace of change will be more rapid.

If the point is that Germany's domestic coal mining lobby still has some political clout - I hope that isn't a surprise.

Seriously, the OP has no point. The comparisons drawn are meaningless unless a person believes the absurd proposition that spending on solar is how coal is going to be replaced. That is nothing but a nuclear lover's (wt) strawman.


ETA: Not only is the following piece a good aid for understanding the news coming out of Germany about energy, it also provides a very good set of discussion ideas for dealing with conservatives here who oppose environmental action.

Forgetting their Roots – and their Constituents
Why German Conservatives Should Learn to Stop Worrying and Love Renewables

by Paul Hockenos

The Merkel administration’s ambiguous relationship with the country’s transition to renewable energy, or Energiewende, speaks volumes about German conservatives’ troubled relationship with the clean energy transition. At some opportunities, Merkel and her lieutenants praise to the sky the clean energy switch that Merkel embraced in the aftermath of the 2011 Fukushima disaster. But at other times, they urge caution, gripe that everything is moving much too quickly, and damn the transition for high consumer prices.

The fact is that German conservatives are split over the Energiewende, with the nay-sayers still largely predominant. This is a huge miscalculation, not only with negative implications for Germany but for German conservatism, which is forsaking a topic that fits in well with a conservative world view and will continue to cost its parties votes if their energy hawks win the day.

The Christian Democrats have had a small, environmentally friendly, pro-renewable energy wing since the 1980s. In line with conservative ideology, they emphasize environmental justice for future generations, ecological conservation, the responsibility to respect God’s creations, and opportunities for entrepreneurs. These are fundamental conservative values.

Few observers remember that it was not the Greens who initiated incentives for clean energy in Germany, but rather Helmut Kohl’s government in the early 1990s. Kohl was pushed to do so not by Green Party tree huggers but by conservative landowners with small hydro-power operations who wanted to sell their electricity to the utilities. Probably even fewer remember that the earliest formations of the Greens in the late 1970s/early 1980s included the likes of the former CDU minister Herbert Gruhl. But Gruhl and a mixed bag of other conservatives fled the party when the splintered detritus of the ultra-left factions, including one disillusioned anarchist by the name of Joschka Fischer, appeared on the scene, yanking it to the left – where it remains today.

Since then, German conservatives have by and large abdicated clean-energy topics to the left...


http://goo.gl/LnIjl
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