In case you missed it - Massive US Govt study shows todays renewables can power US

[kristopher]

Renewable Electricity Futures Study

The National Renewable Energy Laboratory's (NREL) Renewable Electricity Futures Study (RE Futures) is an initial investigation of the extent to which renewable energy supply can meet the electricity demands of the continental United States over the next several decades. This study explores the implications and challenges of very high renewable electricity generation levels—from 30% up to 90%, focusing on 80%, of all U.S. electricity generation—in 2050. At such high levels of renewable electricity generation, the unique characteristics of some renewable resources, specifically geographical distribution and variability and uncertainty in output, pose challenges to the operability of the nation's electric system.

The National Renewable Energy Laboratory's (NREL) Renewable Electricity Futures Study (RE Futures) is an initial investigation of the extent to which renewable energy supply can meet the electricity demands of the continental United States over the next several decades. This study explores the implications and challenges of very high renewable electricity generation levels—from 30% up to 90%, focusing on 80%, of all U.S. electricity generation—in 2050. At such high levels of renewable electricity generation, the unique characteristics of some renewable resources, specifically geographical distribution and variability and uncertainty in output, pose challenges to the operability of the nation's electric system.

Key Findings
- Renewable electricity generation from technologies that are commercially available today, in combination with a more flexible electric system, is more than adequate to supply 80% of total U.S. electricity generation in 2050 while meeting electricity demand on an hourly basis in every region of the country.

- Increased electric system flexibility, needed to enable electricity supply and demand balance with high levels of renewable generation, can come from a portfolio of supply- and demand-side options, including flexible conventional generation, grid storage, new transmission, more responsive loads, and changes in power system operations.

- The abundance and diversity of U.S. renewable energy resources can support multiple combinations of renewable technologies that result in deep reductions in electric sector greenhouse gas emissions and water use.

- The direct incremental cost associated with high renewable generation is comparable to published cost estimates of other clean energy scenarios. Improvement in the cost and performance of renewable technologies is the most impactful lever for reducing this incremental cost.

RE Futures provides initial answers to important questions about the integration of high penetrations of renewable electricity technologies from a national perspective, focusing on key technical implications. The study explores electricity grid integration using models with unprecedented geographic and time resolution for the contiguous United States to assess whether the U.S. power system can supply electricity to meet customer demand on an hourly basis with high levels of renewable electricity, including variable wind and solar generation.

RE Futures, funded by the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, is a collaboration with more than 110 contributors from 35 organizations including national laboratories, industry, universities, and non-governmental organizations.

As the most comprehensive analysis of high-penetration renewable electricity of the continental United States to date, the study can inform broader discussion of the evolution of the electric system and electricity markets toward clean systems. RE Futures results indicate that renewable generation could play a more significant role in the U.S. electricity system than previously thought and that further work is warranted to investigate this clean generation pathway.

Links to download full study here: http://www.nrel.gov/analysis/re_futures/

[Leslie Valley]

1. More than adequate to supply 80% of total U.S. electricity generation in 2050

which assumed that the major long-term drivers of energy demand—Gross Domestic Product and population—grow at 2.4%/yr and 0.9%/yr, respectively, over the period 2008–2035(from the study)

If GDP only grows at 2.4% a year we won't be needing much of any electricity.

Those of you left will be living in cardboard boxes under the abandoned freeway overpasses.

[kristopher]

2. If you are going to reference the study

Please provide specific page numbers for the reference.

Failing to do so is the practice of those who misquote, take out of context and distort meaning.

[Leslie Valley]

3. Unlike you of course, who I'm sure without providing specific page numbers

Can be trusted to accurately quote and convey the precise meaning of the study.

I assumed you had read said study and understood the very important assumptions.

They are the basis for the ultimate conclusions after all.

[kristopher]

4. So you don't want to provide a page number?

Of course not. That assumption is the product of the Energy Information Agency and was published in their 2009a and 2010 Annual Energy Outlook forecasts. (NREL pg 13-1 vol 3)
The reason it is lower than the all time historical average of 3.22% is that developed economies in general have been posting steadily declining rates of growth in GDP for decades. The projection simply follows that trend line. It is the estimate of most analysts that the economic activity generated by a dedicated effort to replace carbon/nuclear with renewables will be a strongly positive force for economic growth.

[kristopher]

5. The OP is by the organization that did the study.

I added no editorial comment. If they were engaging in a discussion of specifics in their paper I can assure you they would cite page numbers in order to facilitate accurate communication.

[NYC_SKP]

6. The OP accurately quotes the source article without editorial comment.

You, on the other hand, seem to take issue with the parts of the document or the validity of the study.

I see nothing unrealistic about the numbers and would fear for the planet if our GDP grew much faster than the rate assumed in the article.

The planet can't take unlimited growth.

[FBaggins]

8. Nope.

Last edited Sun Apr 7, 2013, 10:43 PM - Edit history (1)

On edit - Apologies, I thought I was replying to kris.

The title is editorial comment and is not backed up by the conclusions of the report.

I do, however, find it particularly interesting to compare the "primarily solar and wind will get us 99.99999% of the way there by Friday" scenarios with what they've actually modeled (and the challenges that even that far lower penetration of variable renewables creates). And the fact that your posts here imply that you think this work agrees with you is pretty entertaining.

Take, for instance, the paper you recently spammed for several days. They confessed that they ignored transmission costs/challenges (while pretending that other things they ignored would outweigh that). Take a look at the graph on p.26 of the executive summary and extrapolate out to what would be required in a 99.9% scenario. Then further adjust it to account for that fact that they have a higher proportion of their power from renewables that are less variable... and thus the figure would be MUCH higher for a primarily-wind model.

And that's just the first of several caveats/assumptions that make the real report conflict with the editorializing in your OP.

[NNadir]

7. Really? In 2013, after a half a century of such studies, around the world...

...the renewables industry can't even power the computers dedicated to saying how wonderful it is.

Meanwhile, back on planet earth (as opposed to the bad science fiction movie that our faith based "renewables will save us" advocates live in) the figures for February 2013 at Mauna Loa show that the increase in dangerous fossil fuel waste in the atmosphere increased by 3.18 ppm over February 2012, the worst February ever recorded.

But don't worry. Be happy. Studies show that "renewables will save us" advocates will produce "renewables can do everything" studies right up to the very day when the last grain field on the planet withers.

It will always be faith based and always involve soothsaying and will always be as meaningful as priests in the Middle Ages claiming that the answer to the bubonic plague was "prayer," but hey, who cares? The pronouncement of nonsense has assured the irreversible destruction of the atmosphere, so why worry?

Heckuva job anti-nuke.

[kristopher]

9. Fast overview of global progress on renewables

The entire article is a quick read that highlights the clear direction global energy generation is taking.

100 Percent Renewable Vision Building
By Paul Gipe, Contributor
April 4, 2013

Increasingly countries and regions are leapfrogging timid renewable targets and moving toward full 100 percent integration of renewables into electricity supply. Some thought leaders, politicians, and advocates are moving even further, suggesting 150 percent, even 300 percent renewable electricity generation to meet not only electricity supply but also heat and transport.

<snip>

Meanwhile, Danes continued to erect ever more wind turbines throughout the 1990s. Soon Denmark was closing on 20 percent of supply from wind energy alone and it became apparent — again — that our targets were too modest.

<snip>

The list of what was once unimaginable continues to grow. Portugal’s 10 million people produced more than half their electricity in 2010 from their own indigenous renewable resources. Spain’s 40 million people meet one-third of their electrical consumption from renewables.

<snip>

On the panel were two long-time renewable pioneers, Preben Maegaard from Denmark, and Johannes Lackmann from Germany. Independent of each other, both had come to the same conclusion. To address climate change and energy security, we must move well beyond 100 percent renewable energy in electricity supply and build an integrated network capable of using more than 150% renewable energy, up to as much as 300 percent renewable energy to offset fossil fuels in transportation, and heating.

Read entire piece at:
http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/rea/news/article/2013/04/100-percent-renewable-vision-building?cmpid=WNL-Friday-April5-2013