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Catherina

(35,568 posts)
Sun Apr 28, 2013, 08:55 PM Apr 2013

Probability of fraud in Venezuela is less than one in 25,000 trillion

The Venezuelan Presidential Vote -- What is the Probability That It Could Have Been Stolen?

Written by CEPR
Friday, 26 April 2013 11:45

Opposition candidate Henrique Capriles is currently “boycotting” a second audit of the voting results for the April 14 presidential election, which the National Electoral Council has agreed to undertake. Capriles claims that the election was stolen through fraud.

In a CEPR press release we note that it is practically impossible to have obtained the results of the audit that took place after the polls closed on April 14, if the election were actually stolen through fraud.

When the polls closed, a random sample of 53 percent<1> of all the machines (20,825 out of 39,303) was chosen, and a manual tally was made of the paper receipts. This “hot audit” was done on site, in the presence of the observers from both campaigns, as well as witnesses from the community. There were no reports from witnesses or election officials on site of discrepancies between the machine totals and the hand count.

The following is a calculation of the probability of auditing 20,825 machines and finding zero errors when there are actually 50 among all 39,303 (this means that there are 50 machines with errors among the ones that were not audited). The assumption here is that there would have to be at least 50 bad machines -- i.e. where the machine count did not match the paper ballot – in order to reverse a margin of 272,000 votes.

This assumption is of course understating the number of bad machines that would be necessary to reverse the result. The average machine has only about 360 votes, and the maximum was about 564. And here we are assuming the election is stolen by moving about 2700 votes per machine from Capriles to Maduro, on 50 machines. If more machines were bad, then the probability below gets even (vastly) smaller. So the calculation below is actually a very high estimate of the probability of obtaining the April 14 audit results, if the election were stolen.

The probability of auditing 20,825 machines and finding zero errors when there are 50 machines with errors among all 39,303 machines is

p = (50 choose 0) x (39253 choose 20825) / (39303 choose 20825)

(50 choose 0) is 1, so

p = (39253! / (20825! 18428!)) / (39303! / (20825! 18478!) = (39253! / 39303!) x (18478! / 18428!)
= (18478 x 18477 x 18476 ... x 18429) / (39303 x 39302 x 39301 ... x 39254)
= (18478 / 39303) x (18477 / 39302) x (18476 / 39301) ... x (18429 / 39254)

because there are 50 such products, each less than the first (18478 / 39303)

p < (18478 / 39303)^50 = 4 x 10^-17

In other words, the probability of getting an audit result that was obtained on April 14, if there were enough machine errors to reverse the result, is far less than 1 in 25,000 trillion. It is therefore practically impossible that a further audit of the remaining machines could reverse the result of the election.

<1> Another 1 percent was audited the next day.



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http://www.cepr.net/index.php/blogs/the-americas-blog/the-venezuelan-presidential-vote-what-is-the-probability-that-it-could-have-been-stolen
6 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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Probability of fraud in Venezuela is less than one in 25,000 trillion (Original Post) Catherina Apr 2013 OP
K&R grahamhgreen Apr 2013 #1
How many brazillions is that? Zorro Apr 2013 #2
He's typically trusting the machines where there were no observers. joshcryer Apr 2013 #3
Members of Caprile's own team are acknowledging the election was lost by him. sabrina 1 Apr 2013 #4
Let me just reiterate the facts about U.S. vs. Venezuela election systems... Peace Patriot Apr 2013 #5
Defies logic. What a miserable shame. Everyone loses except the oligarchs. n/t Judi Lynn Apr 2013 #6

joshcryer

(62,265 posts)
3. He's typically trusting the machines where there were no observers.
Mon Apr 29, 2013, 04:00 AM
Apr 2013

Which represents some 700k votes.

His entire analysis relies on the hot audit being ungamable. Which it most definitely is not.

sabrina 1

(62,325 posts)
4. Members of Caprile's own team are acknowledging the election was lost by him.
Mon Apr 29, 2013, 11:38 AM
Apr 2013

I guess they are seeing him for what he is and do not want to be associated with someone using outside forces to try to steal election.

Peace Patriot

(24,010 posts)
5. Let me just reiterate the facts about U.S. vs. Venezuela election systems...
Mon Apr 29, 2013, 01:47 PM
Apr 2013

...for those who don't know them:

Both countries use electronic voting. There the similarity ends.

In the U.S., all states use machines containing 'TRADE SECRET' code--code that the public is forbidden to review--with half the states in the U.S. doing NO AUDIT AT ALL (no ballot = no audit) and the other half doing a miserably inadequate 1% audit. Standard recounts--if you have the money, lawyers and power to get a recount--are 3%. Half the states CANNOT DO a recount.

The 'TRADE SECRET' code by which 75% of the votes in the U.S. are 'counted' is owned and controlled by ONE. PRIVATE, FAR RIGHTWING-CONNECTED corporation (E&S, which bought out Diebold).

In Venezuela, they use OPEN SOURCE code--code that belongs to THE PUBLIC and that anyone may review--and do an automatic audit of 53% to 55% of the vote--MORE THAN FIVE TIMES the audit needed to detect fraud in an electronic system.

--------------------------------

In the U.S.: ZERO AUDIT in half the states. 1% in the other half. And half the states CANNOT DO A RECOUNT.

In Venezuela: 53% to 55% audit on election day! A ballot for every vote. 100% audit/recount is unnecessary but possible, because that's the BEST WAY to run elections.

--------------------------------

It was UTTER HYPOCRISY for the U.S. to "demand" a 100% recount in Venezuela! Cuz, you know, people like Obama and Clinton know damn well what the situation is. They all have ES&S's noose around their necks.

They don't dare challenge ES&S election rigging, if they were of a mind to. Frankly, I think the CIA runs ES&S--or some combination of the CIA, the DIA and other interested war profiteers. ES&S's first beneficiary was Chuck Hagel (now Sec of Defense). It was HIS company when he was first (s)elected for the U.S. Senate!

Gawd. We are so ~!@#$-ed!

My rule of thumb for Bushwhacks is this: Whatever they say, the opposite is true, and whatever they accuse others of doing, they are doing, or planning to do.

This is a very reliable guide to Bushwhacky policies and events. The pity is that Obamaites are starting to sound like Bushwhacks. We have the most riggable election system in the western world; Venezuela has the least riggable system--and one that Jimmy Carter recently called "the best in the world"--and guess who accuses whom of rigged elections!?

The rigged accusing the unriggable! The privatized system accusing the public system! The worst accusing the best!

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