This is Calculated, and Looking Very Suspicious

[Catherina]

This is Calculated, and Looking Very Suspicious

Written by Mark Weisbrot
Monday, 15 April 2013 13:40

...

Now it is no surprise that the White House would be on the side of the opposition to the Chavistas, which has been the U.S. position even before the military coup that Washington supported in 2002.

...

They know very well that their call for a 100 percent audit will, if it has any influence, make it less likely that the Venezuelan government would support such an audit. This statement will just add fuel to the fire of those who say that the normal election rules, which mandate an audit of 54 percent of the machines (matching the paper ballots), should be respected; and that it would be a violation of Venezuela’s sovereignty to give in to external pressure.

So why did the White House make this statement, which is also sure to greatly annoy the new government of Venezuela? The most obvious answer, unfortunately, is that they want to promote conflict within the country. That is not a good sign. In previous Venezuelan presidential elections, since the recall referendum of 2004, both Republican and Democratic administrations did not necessarily want conflict because these elections were very close to the U.S. national elections, and it is a general rule to avoid risks that might raise the price of oil before an election, and so they recognized the results. It would be a very bad turn indeed if they have changed their policy.

If the White House merely wanted to support a 100 percent audit, it could do so privately, even to both sides (the NYT reported today that President Maduro reached out to the Obama administration through Bill Richardson, looking to improve relations). The White House statement today shows once again that it is definitely not interested in improving relations. Nor is it interested in a 100 percent audit of the vote.

http://www.cepr.net/index.php/blogs/the-americas-blog/this-is-calculated-and-looking-very-suspicious

[Judi Lynn]

1. Totally focused. The last paragraph says it all, doesn't it? Thank you! n/t

[Warren Stupidity]

2. these evil fuckers are starting to annoy me.

(well they started to annoy me around 1967, but...)

When the left wins big in Venezuela: "FRAUD!". When the left wins by a significant but small margin: "FRAUD!". How about they stop fucking with Venezuela? Huh?

[Mnemosyne]

3. Hear, hear. What you said, Warren. nt

[Louisiana1976]

4. Well Said.

[Catherina]

5. +100,000! n/t

[Catherina]

6. White House suggesting the US will not recognize election unless all votes are re-counted

10:12 PM EDT: ...

Mark Weisbrot noted this in his response to initial reports of the White House’s statement in support of a full re-count, which he called "calculated" and "very suspicious." Since then, the State Department press office released the transcript for its daily press briefing, which demonstrated the U.S. government’s insistence on calling for a recount despite no indications that the CNE was considering such a move. Reporters present at the briefing attempted to get a firm answer from the State Department as to whether it was suggesting that the U.S. would not recognize the election unless all votes were re-counted, as only the opposition has demanded. Here is an excerpt from that exchange.

QUESTION: Yes. Actually – thank you – actually the electoral national council has not said that there will be a recount. It’s something that the opposition has asked for and Maduro has said that he’s for an audit, which is a regular process that they do over there. But the electoral national council has not said anything on that, and actually they said today that they will announce Maduro as an official winner. So are you worried about that?

MR. VENTRELL: Again, it’s our opinion that it makes sense that a recount should be completed before any additional steps, including official certification of the results, occur. So that’s what we’re urging at this time.

QUESTION: So would it be worrying if they announce Maduro as a winner without a recount?

MR. VENTRELL: I mean, I think I’ve stated as clear as I can that any – the recount should be completed before any additional steps are taken. That’s the U.S. position.

QUESTION: Well, does that mean that the legitimacy – in your eyes, the legitimacy of the election will be compromised if the council goes ahead and certifies the vote before a recount?

MR. VENTRELL: Well, they haven’t yet, so we’re not there yet.

QUESTION: Well, yeah, but Patrick, this is one of those hypothetical questions that you’re inconsistently choosing not to answer.

...

QUESTION: So why can you not answer? There’s certainly – you must have an opinion one way or the other. If you say that you think that it makes sense and there should be a recount before the vote is certified, surely you can say something about if there isn’t a recount and the vote is certified.

MR. VENTRELL: I mean, we want --

QUESTION: Would that --

MR. VENTRELL: Matt --

QUESTION: -- be problematic for the United States?

MR. VENTRELL: Let me be very clear. We want the recount to happen.

QUESTION: Yes.

MR. VENTRELL: If it doesn’t, then we’ll address it at that time. We’re not there yet. We’re very clear that we want the recount to happen.

http://www.cepr.net/index.php/blogs/the-americas-blog/venezuelas-presidential-elections-2013-live-blog

[sabrina 1]

7. Shameful, and so completely transparent. We are meddling in Latin America again. Venezuela should

flick them off like fly and go about its business. What right in the world does this country have to interfere in another sovereign nation's elections.

No way should they fall for that. It's likely to be fixed. Sounds to me like the US thought they HAD fixed it and are upset that they failed.

And who needs our recognition? Pretty soon countries will start telling the US they are not recognized by them. The sheer arrogance is stunning. We will start a world war as we are one of the most despised and feared countries in the world and people will finally do what WE did when another Super Power got a little arrogant.

We need Venezuela's oil. If Venezuela calls their bluff they will back off. The US has no choice.

[flamingdem]

8. Yes that's where it's going

Latam will begin to turn to China, not a good thing really

[Judi Lynn]

9. Weisbrot comments from PBS' Newshour, interesting snip:

ANALYSIS AIR DATE: April 15, 2013
Assessing U.S.-Venezuela Relations After Very Close Election Favors Maduro

Transcript:

~snip~

MARK WEISBROT, Center for Economic and Policy Research: Well, let me give you some context here I think for your listeners and viewers.

I think the only reason we're having a discussion about the legitimacy of the Venezuelan election or having all this news and all the negative news really that you hear about Venezuela almost every day -- it's about 90 percent negative -- is -- there are two reasons.

One is that this is probably the most important target for regime change from the United States government. And, two, it has 500 billion barrels of oil approximately. And those two things are reeled. And I think that's why we're having this.

Let's face it. In 2006, there was an election in Mexico where Calderon won by 0.6 percent, about a third of the margin that Maduro had. And what did the U.S. government do? They congratulated him before there was any kind of even announcement or official announcement that he won. And then they organized an international campaign to legitimate his election.

And they supported them when they not only refused a recount, but refused to even divulge ...

RAY SUAREZ: Absent American congratulations or not, what does Venezuelan law say about whether or not Capriles can get a recount? Is he likely to get one?

MARK WEISBROT: Oh, he doesn't have any entitlement to a recount.

And you already have -- the Venezuelan system is very secure. That's why Jimmy Carter called it the best in the -- electoral process in the world. They already audited 54 percent of the votes. Statistically, they do that right there. They take -- you know, there's two copies of every vote. You push a touch-screen. You get a receipt. You get to look at it. You put it in a ballot box.

So, unlike our system, where we don't really know who won when it's a close election, they know. They have 50 -- I mean, they take a random selection of 54 percent for an audit. And they look at the machine and they make sure it counts up with the ballot and they do it in front of the opposition witnesses. And that's already been done.

That's done at the election. You know, the difference between 100 percent and a 54 percent random sample in this situation is statistically not really that much. It's almost trivial.

More:
http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/latin_america/jan-june13/venezuela2_04-15.html

[joshcryer]

12. Isn't Weisbrot advocating for a full recount here?

What Weisbrot doesn't get is that the 54% recount only allows the campaigners at the polling station to verify that the machine vote matches the actas (vote tally sheets). It ends there. It does not get magically transmitted anywhere. It is a polling station and machine verification audit. The actas are where the truth is, but the opposition doesn't have 100% of the actas. If the opposition was, in theory, winning in the polling stations where they had 90% of the actas, a full recount is necessary to get the rest of the data.

[naaman fletcher]

13. He's saying what I hypothesized in an different thread to you:

That there is no need for a full recount. the 54% (that is misleading, it is really 50% of boxes plus one box), would be all you need to know that the machines ran properly. Anyone with any knowledge of statistics could tell you that in fact that is overkill.

So, if the machines ran properly, then you can rely on the actas.

So, as long as Capriles has all of the actas, he should have his case that he won or lost. However, that is assuming that he had 100% of the actas. You are suggesting he doesn't, and that the foreign vote might therefore tip the balance.

I wish he would lay out very carefully what his position is. It would appear that a "full recount" or "count every vote" position while appealing on the surface is in fact misleading. There is no need to count every paper ballot if the 54% audit showed now problems.

[joshcryer]

14. No recount would be true if the opposition had 100% observers.

They had less than 90% (Henry Falcon said it was less than O7 which was 90%). Therefore they have less than 100% of the actas. The actas are verified by the 54% audit where observers stand around and make sure that the audit matches the results printed by the machine.

Weisbrot's weak logic is that Capriles (and indeed the 49% of the opposition) isn't "entitled" to a recount because of that 54% audit which verifies the actas. He says, "the difference between 100 percent and a 54 percent random sample in this situation is statistically not really that much." True, if you have 100% of the actas, which the opposition doesn't.

Yes, the CNE can give them some actas, but there were no opposition observers there to watch the "statistically significant" 54% audit.

Weisbrot's argument is that there, effectively, is a 100% recount, and therefore it isn't necessary. This is not true because the opposition wasn't there to verify 10-15% of the actas. From the point of view of the opposition they have a 90% recount at best.

[naaman fletcher]

15. OK

But if the 90% of the Acta's show Capriles winning, he ought to state that, and then we go from there.

[joshcryer]

16. I agree completely.

And, as I said before, it's not clear that he even is in the lead in those actas, we'll see if he goes nuts again today and declares himself winner again, heh (I can't imagine anyone doing that unless they want political suicide, real suicide, or even death). I'm just saying a plausible hypothetical here as to why they would deserve a recount.

Diosdado Cabello just called a recount "a whim of the bourgeoisie" so I guess it's more and more likely not to happen.

[naaman fletcher]

17. There's a hell of a lot of bourgeoisie in Venezuela apparently. nt.

[bemildred]

10. The old ways are best. I just wish they were as concerned about counting all the votes here. nt

[joshcryer]

11. Weisbrot thinks chavistas counting votes is less important than snubbing the US.

Really, that's precisely what he said.

They know very well that their call for a 100 percent audit will, if it has any influence, make it less likely that the Venezuelan government would support such an audit.

He said that. Really.

Taking odious to an entirely new level.

[polly7]

18. Kick and Recommend. Thanks, Catherina. nt.