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Mapping the 2016 Electorate: Demographics Don't Guarantee a Democratic White House
Cook Political Report -- 19 June 2015Three Reasons for Democratic Optimism
1. The white share of the electorate is likely to fall about two percent in 2016. In 2012, Edison Research's national exit poll pegged the electorate at 72 percent white, 13 percent African-American, 10 percent Latino, and five percent Asian/Other. If the electorate changes in line with Census estimates for citizens of voting age, the 2016 electorate will be 70 percent white, 13 percent African-American, 11 percent Latino, and six percent Asian/Other.
2. Demographic shifts alone boost Democrats' national margin about 1.5 percent versus 2012.
3. Even among white voters, rising educational attainment means Republicans' core supporters are in decline. Republicans' demographic woes aren't limited to the rise of Latino and Asian voters. Over the last few decades, Democrats have done better and better with whites who hold college degrees (especially advanced degrees), while whites without a college degree have become a core element of the GOP coalition.
In 2012, each group accounted for 36 percent of the electorate. Obama carried 42 percent of white college graduates, but just 36 percent of non-college whites. In 2016, white college graduates will rise to 37 percent of the electorate. Unfortunately for Republicans, non-college whites - by far their best-performing cohort - are slated to fall three points to 33 percent as more college-educated millennials supplant conservative seniors who didn't attend college.
1. The white share of the electorate is likely to fall about two percent in 2016. In 2012, Edison Research's national exit poll pegged the electorate at 72 percent white, 13 percent African-American, 10 percent Latino, and five percent Asian/Other. If the electorate changes in line with Census estimates for citizens of voting age, the 2016 electorate will be 70 percent white, 13 percent African-American, 11 percent Latino, and six percent Asian/Other.
2. Demographic shifts alone boost Democrats' national margin about 1.5 percent versus 2012.
3. Even among white voters, rising educational attainment means Republicans' core supporters are in decline. Republicans' demographic woes aren't limited to the rise of Latino and Asian voters. Over the last few decades, Democrats have done better and better with whites who hold college degrees (especially advanced degrees), while whites without a college degree have become a core element of the GOP coalition.
In 2012, each group accounted for 36 percent of the electorate. Obama carried 42 percent of white college graduates, but just 36 percent of non-college whites. In 2016, white college graduates will rise to 37 percent of the electorate. Unfortunately for Republicans, non-college whites - by far their best-performing cohort - are slated to fall three points to 33 percent as more college-educated millennials supplant conservative seniors who didn't attend college.
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