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bananas

(27,509 posts)
Wed Apr 10, 2013, 04:35 PM Apr 2013

Mathematicians Predict the Future With Data From the Past

http://www.wired.com/wiredenterprise/2013/04/cliodynamics-peter-turchin/

Mathematicians Predict the Future With Data From the Past

By Klint Finley
04.10.13 6:30 AM

In Isaac Asimov’s classic science fiction saga Foundation, mathematics professor Hari Seldon predicts the future using what he calls psychohistory. Drawing on mathematical models that describe what happened in the past, he anticipates what will happen next, including the fall of the Galactic Empire.

That may seem like fanciful stuff. But Peter Turchin is turning himself into a real-life Hari Seldon — and he’s not alone.

Turchin — a professor at the University of Connecticut — is the driving force behind a field called “cliodynamics,” where scientists and mathematicians analyze history in the hopes of finding patterns they can then use to predict the future. It’s named after Clio, the Greek muse of history.

These academics have the same goals as other historians — “We start with questions that historians have asked for all of history,” Turchin says. “For example: Why do civilizations collapse?” — but they seek to answer these questions quite differently. They use math rather than mere language, and according to Turchin, the prognosis isn’t that far removed from the empire-crushing predictions laid down by Hari Seldon in the Foundation saga. Unless something changes, he says, we’re due for a wave of widespread violence in about 2020, including riots and terrorism.

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Mathematicians Predict the Future With Data From the Past (Original Post) bananas Apr 2013 OP
Wow, GiveMeFreedom Apr 2013 #1
Crap, I thought that cliodynamics was named after this woman: TexasTowelie Apr 2013 #2
Kicked and recommended. Uncle Joe Apr 2013 #3

TexasTowelie

(111,313 posts)
2. Crap, I thought that cliodynamics was named after this woman:
Sat Apr 13, 2013, 05:18 AM
Apr 2013


Now I understand why I've been unemployed so long with my BS in math.
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