CommonDreams: Looking Backwards at the Democrat's 2014 Implosion

[Bucky]

linky ==> http://www.commondreams.org/view/2013/04/01-4

November 5, 2014

Jubilant Republicans took back the Senate in yesterday's mid-term election, and appeared to have increased their majority in the House by about ten seats. "Barack Obama is now the lamest of lame ducks," said Sen. Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, now the Majority Leader, who held on to his own Kentucky seat by about three percentage points, the Senate Republicans only close call of the evening.

"The Senate numbers this year were against the Democrats," said pollster Stan Greenberg, "but what really killed us with the voters was the economy."

Going into the election, 11 Democrat-held senate seats were considered at risk, while the only endangered Republican seat was McConnell's. In a quirk of bad luck and timing, almost every red-state Democrat was up, and several veterans had opted to retire. Republicans gained Democrat-held seats in Alaska, Arkansas, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina, South Dakota and West Virginia, while Democrats managed to narrowly hold jeopardized seats in Colorado, New Hampshire, Oregon, and Minnesota, leaving Republicans with swing of seven seats and a 52-48 margin.

[graham4anything]

1. Harry Reid is a genius with the 10 step ahead

especially if the above scenerio were to happen because of the stupid protest voters ala 2010.

Of course, the house will be democratic in 2014, making the esteemed (IMHO) Harry Reid even more of a great prophet and poet and lover.

[putitinD]

2. April Fools

[Bucky]

3. Man, I wish.

[emulatorloo]

4. The usual suspects here will do their damnedest to make this reality.

Just like they did in 2010.

[Bucky]

5. If it's any consolation, DU doesn't matter all that much.

This site can motivate any of us to important action and involvement in politics. But I don't think the carpery of the usual complainers has much drag effect on the fortunes of Congressional candidates. They say each volunteer is good for 20 votes. I hope to do my damnedest this coming year to make my little corner in Houston a swing district.

[emulatorloo]

9. Will be doing the same here, Bucky - GOTV!

[FBaggins]

6. 2012 looked worse than this two years ago.

I was as worried as anyone who wasn't "worried" by profession... but we did far better than expected.

2014 has clear challenges (not the least of which the fact that the President isn't on the ticket)... but it will take a significant shift from current public opinion to actually lose the chamber.

[Bucky]

7. You're right. Historically, off-year elections have lower turnout for Dem base groups.

It's a shame, and a handicap for us, but 2010 suffered from even lower than normal turnouts and 2012 saw higher than expected turnouts. I've always thought that the chatter of retaking the House in 2014 was premature. Historically, the 6th year elections are really hard on the party in the White House. Dems made huge gains in 1958, 1974, 1986, and 2006. Republicans did the same in 1946, 1966, 1978, 1994, and 2010. No party in the White House has gained seats in the 6th year elections.

The Republican stand a respectable chance (on paper at least) of winning the Senate in 2014. We should not take that lightly. It's not likely, but it is possible. Don't forget the sea-change in public opinions from 2009-2010, and again from 2011-2012. Another big swing is probably likely. Republicans have kept their base motivated, despite being hammered last time. Dems may have a tactical edge in the Electoral college, but the Repubs have gerrymandered one in the House. History favors them.

Personally, I think we gotta keep immigration and gun regulation alive as issues to win in 2014. That means having some legislative accomplishments to run on as well as counting on Republicans to block some other popular policies. It'll be a tough thing to pull off.

[FBaggins]

8. And 2nd term off-year (Senate) elections are worse (usually)

Last edited Tue Apr 2, 2013, 06:29 AM - Edit history (1)

This is because the senators in that class were last elected in the President's first election and rode coat tails.

I've always thought that the chatter of retaking the House in 2014 was premature.

It would take just shy of a miracle.