Study estimates 24 states still have uncontrolled coronavirus spread

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By Joel Achenbach, Rachel Weiner and Isaac Stanley-Becker
May 22, 2020 at 6:25 p.m. CDT

The coronavirus may still be spreading at epidemic rates in 24 states, particularly in the South and Midwest, according to new research that highlights the risk of a second wave of infections in places that reopen too quickly or without sufficient precautions.

Researchers at Imperial College London created a model that incorporates cellphone data showing that people sharply reduced their movements after stay-at-home orders were broadly imposed in March. With restrictions now easing and mobility increasing with the approach of Memorial Day and the unofficial start of summer, the researchers developed an estimate of viral spread as of May 17.

It is a snapshot of a transitional moment in the pandemic and captures the patchwork nature across the country of covid-19, the disease caused by the virus. Some states have had little viral spread or “crushed the curve” to a great degree and have some wiggle room to reopen their economies without generating a new epidemic-level surge in cases. Others are nowhere near containing the virus.

The model, which has not been peer reviewed, shows that in the majority of states, a second wave looms if people abandon efforts to mitigate the viral spread. “There’s evidence that the U.S. is not under control, as an entire country,” said Samir Bhatt, a senior lecturer in geostatistics at Imperial College.

The model shows potentially ominous scenarios if people move around as they did previously and do so without taking precautions. In California and Florida, the death rate could spike to roughly 1,000 a day by July without efforts to mitigate the spread, according to the report.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/study-estimates-24-states-still-have-uncontrolled-coronavirus-spread/2020/05/22/d3032470-9c43-11ea-ac72-3841fcc9b35f_story.html

[Phoenix61]

1. Completely agree about Florida.

Panama City Beach hotels are packed. They don’t call it the Redneck Riviera for nothing. The only good thing is it will cause Twitler to will lose the state.

[jimfields33]

3. Problem with Florida is that day one they've been saying we'd be worse then New York

They were saying millions would die in the state alone. When you announce things like that and they don’t happen, it makes people believe that the forecast was exaggerated which makes everything after suspicious. Whoever was the one in charge of Florida’s crystal ball needs run out of the states. They screwed up at the very beginning.

[Eugene]

4. Responsible people never said millions of people will die in NY/Florida alone.

Worst case of an unchecked spread in 2 million dead nationwide over a 2-year projected span of the pandemic.

When politicians like DeSantis denounce the scientists' predictions as false, they skip the fact the outbreaks start small and can explode exponentially. The bomb hasn't gone off in Florida yet.

[Phoenix61]

5. The only reason it hasn't been significantly

worse is lots of counties issued stay at home orders on their own.

[SWBTATTReg]

2. Too bad that most screaming for reopening can't be held responsible for supporting actions that ...

lead to illness and more deaths in their cities, counties, states etc. Everyone of these idiots should lose their business, being that they literally proved to all via their protests to reopen things back up to be interested in money only, not lives, and none of this BS about being concerned about paying employees etc. I haven't heard of very many businesses giving out bonuses or incentives for their employees, only that businesses are griping because they can't open.