Economy Bears Turn Bulls Seeing 3% GDP for U.S. Few Saw in 2012
Source: Bloomberg
Bearish forecasts for the U.S. economy are giving way to more upbeat views of the nations ability to weather federal spending cuts and tax increases.
At Morgan Stanley in New York, Chief U.S. Economist Vincent Reinhart now sees a 3 percent pace of growth in the first quarter, up from 0.8 percent in December. JPMorgan Chase & Co.s Bruce Kasman raised his forecast to 3.3 percent from 1 percent.
What happened at the beginning of the year was a genuine surprise in terms of how well the economy held up, Kasman, the firms New York-based chief economist, said in an April 5 conference call.
Gross domestic product probably climbed at a 3 percent annualized rate from January through March, according to the median forecast in a Bloomberg survey of 69 economists from April 5 to April 9. Thats up from the 2 percent gain projected last month and 1.6 percent in December.
Read more: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-04-11/economy-bears-turn-bulls-seeing-3-gdp-for-u-s-few-saw-in-2012.html
FreakinDJ
(17,644 posts)as if any of us here will be any thing but an Extremely Low Wage Slave from the current economic policies
AAO
(3,300 posts)DCBob
(24,689 posts)From July 2012..
"Roubini is back with his prophecies of gloom and foreboding for the global economy. Dr. Doom has taken to the airwaves, warning policymakers as well as the public that there is a high probability that a perfect economic and fiscal storm will erupt in 2013. Essentially, Roubini's forecast is as follows: Until the November U.S. presidential elections of this year, there will be a deceptive calm before the storm, as every major economy plagued with severe fiscal problems continues to kick the can down the road. Come 2013, there will be a convergence of several major negative metrics. These include the worsening eurozone debt crisis, likely leading to the exit of Greece from the monetary union. China will face a hard economic landing, and the United States -- its economic growth and job creation performance already anemic -- will face a high probability of a renewed economic recession, particularly in a political environment favoring austerity. In addition to those economic factors, there is one other element in the turbulent brew that comprises Roubini's prediction of a perfect economic storm in 2013: Iran. If the Iranian nuclear issue is not resolved peacefully, which at present seems highly doubtful, there is a high probability of a military conflict occurring in the region, which will add further strains upon the global economy, particularly if oil prices spike to highly elevated levels."
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/sheldon-filger/dr-doom-redux-roubini_b_1695724.html
caseymoz
(5,763 posts)That this is for one quarter, the quarter before sequestration took effect?
And I hope you also notice all of the forecasts are talked about in terms of probabilities? And that previous performance means nothing about the present? The economic condition of the US and the world economy is still alarming.
Moreover, only a very small number of people are receiving any benefit from that growth. So far, those people have not been generous about jobs or startup investment. And they're pretty driven to cut away the last of the safety net.
If there was ever any trickle down before, they've now fixed those leaks.
DCBob
(24,689 posts)Of course predictions are probabilities but this guy has been predicting gloom and doom for years... at some point you have call bull%@$!
Furthermore, we are all well aware the "booming" economy is not helping everyone. But Dr D is not talking about that he is talking about the economy in general. He has been wrong so many times in the past few years. The only thing he got right was the 2008 crash. A broken clock comes to mind.
Kolesar
(31,182 posts)I am sure he didn't advise his kids to join the Army to fight the evil Moslems.
AnneD
(15,774 posts)unemployment is too high with no recovery in site and we are looking at a new spike in foreclosures. All the fundamentals are weak. They are trying to get a new group of suckers to put money in the market. TBTB are rigging the market worse than any communist central planning committee and Pravda is duly reporting the party line.
magical thyme
(14,881 posts)"...more upbeat views of the nations ability to weather federal spending cuts and tax increases"
says the cynic in me.
L0oniX
(31,493 posts)Brigid
(17,621 posts)Do we start seeing more hiring? And wage increases?