Dr. Anthony Fauci says chance of coronavirus vaccine being highly effective is 'not great'

[TomCADem]

Source: CNBC

White House coronavirus advisor Dr. Anthony Fauci said Friday that the chances of scientists creating a highly effective vaccine — one that provides 98% or more guaranteed protection — for the virus are slim.

Scientists are hoping for a coronavirus vaccine that is at least 75% effective, but 50% or 60% effective would be acceptable, too, Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said during a Q&A with the Brown University School of Public Health. “The chances of it being 98% effective is not great, which means you must never abandon the public health approach.”

“You’ve got to think of the vaccine as a tool to be able to get the pandemic to no longer be a pandemic, but to be something that’s well controlled,” he said.

The Food and Drug Administration has said it would authorize a coronavirus vaccine so long as it is safe and at least 50% effective. Dr. Stephen Hahn, the FDA’s commissioner, said last month that the vaccine or vaccines that end up getting authorized will prove to be more than 50% effective, but it’s possible the U.S. could end up with a vaccine that, on average, reduces a person’s risk of a Covid-19 infection by just 50%.

Read more: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/07/coronavirus-vaccine-dr-fauci-says-chances-of-it-being-highly-effective-is-not-great.html

[ananda]

1. That sounds a bit over-optimistic to me if..

.. it's not the Oxford vaccine.

That's the only one I would trust.

[PJMcK]

2. But Trump said we'd have a vaccine before the election!

Damn. Who should I believe?!

(wink)

[ProfessorGAC]

3. How Many Vaccines Are 98+% Effective?

There's likely some, like polio & smallpox, but flu vaccines are nowhere close. They probably seldom, year to year, get near the 75% figure stated. 40-60% is probably closer to true.
I don't think it needs to be that high to be highly valuable from a mass health perspective.
That said, we do lose 10-30,000 a year from the flu, so if those were 80-90% effective, we'd lose a lot fewer people each year.

[TomCADem]

7. CNN: Fauci says Covid-19 vaccine may not get US to herd immunity if too many people refuse to get it

Fauci has been pretty consistent in trying to temper expectations on a vaccine. I think the fear is that if a vaccine is discovered, people will demand that we drop social distancing immediately even though the vaccine will only offer incomplete protection and many people might not take it.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/28/health/fauci-coronavirus-vaccine-contact-tracing-aspen/index.html

(CNN)Dr. Anthony Fauci says he would "settle" for a Covid-19 vaccine that's 70% to 75% effective, but that this incomplete protection, coupled with the fact that many Americans say they won't get a coronavirus vaccine, makes it "unlikely" that the US will achieve sufficient levels of immunity to quell the outbreak.

With government support, three coronavirus vaccines are expected to be studied in large-scale clinical trials in the next three months.

"The best we've ever done is measles, which is 97 to 98 percent effective," said Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases. "That would be wonderful if we get there. I don't think we will. I would settle for [a] 70, 75% effective vaccine."

A CNN poll last month found one-third of Americans said they would not try to get vaccinated against Covid, even if the vaccine is widely available and low cost.

[a la izquierda]

11. True statement.

I get the flu shot every year. I’ve never had the flu until this year, and it was a doozy, but short-lived. I attribute it to getting the vaccine in England- which turned out to be a different strain- plus the stress of travel in December and January, plus the stress of some personal things in my life.

I’ll still be getting it (and possibly a pneumonia vaccine) in September.

[ProfessorGAC]

12. Me, Too

I've never had a reaction to those yearly vaccines, and 50% is better than zero.

[DeminPennswoods]

4. Fauci is all over the place with his pronouncements

There is still a lot unknown. No one knows how the vaccines will play out of how effective they'll be, just say that instead of putting out a guess.

[moonscape]

5. I appreciate what he says, based on what he knows at the moment, which

is miles beyond what we know.

The problem is it gives anti-science folk ammunition when science knowledge changes, but they'll shoot with imaginary bullets regardless.

[TomCADem]

6. I Think Fauci Has Been Very Consistent That There Is No Guarantee...

...how effective a vaccine might be and that even a vaccine that is less than 95 percent effective would be helpful? Are you aware of him saying that we will get a vaccine that is bullet proof?

I know that Navarro has pushed the talking point you mentioned in his USA Today editorial, but Navarro is just a political hack.

[DeminPennswoods]

9. During his House testimony, Fauci

did say no one knows how long antibodies will last. He was honest about all that's unknown. I think he should just say that instead of offering what is speculation at this point. It's the same with all these talking head docs on cable. They never say "we don't know". The only ones who do say that are the actual epidemologists when they are interviewd. I guess that's why they aren't booked much as guests.

There is so much information churning around that's based on small samples and what have you, it's nearly impossible to know what to believe. Saying I/we don't know yet at least is honest instead of making people more optimistic or pessimistic. SARS2 is a jigsaw puzzle right now. We have pieces that can maybe give an idea of what the full picture is, but not enough to know for sure.

[BadgerKid]

10. We may see multiple vaccines

With different efficacies so a multivalent shot might result as there is with the flu.