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Jackpine Radical

(45,274 posts)
Wed Apr 17, 2013, 08:40 AM Apr 2013

Damn all the speculation. Damn gut feelings. In the absence of evidence, ignorance is all we have.

Live with it.

This is a wonderful occasion upon which to practice your tolerance for ambiguity. That's a good liberal intellectual trait, ya know. It's what separates us from the Fundies of all stripes.

15 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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Damn all the speculation. Damn gut feelings. In the absence of evidence, ignorance is all we have. (Original Post) Jackpine Radical Apr 2013 OP
yes. cali Apr 2013 #1
Well said!!! n/t RKP5637 Apr 2013 #2
Sometimes I'm glad for not having a TV. limpyhobbler Apr 2013 #3
I'm fine with that. LWolf Apr 2013 #4
One thing I know about profiling. Jackpine Radical Apr 2013 #5
Yes. LWolf Apr 2013 #6
That's exactly why I have yet to comment on any thread (other than this one) yet. Javaman Apr 2013 #7
It shows how education and knowledge is so necessary... kentuck Apr 2013 #8
There is a difference between a need to know and a need for closure. Jackpine Radical Apr 2013 #10
Agree, but I hope we aren't in the dark for too long. Cleita Apr 2013 #9
Good phrase -- Tolerance for ambibuity Armstead Apr 2013 #11
Kind of Zen libodem Apr 2013 #12
I don't agree. kcr Apr 2013 #13
From A Serious Man: Tommy_Carcetti Apr 2013 #14
Agreed. There have been some seriously stupid posts since the bombing Lurks Often Apr 2013 #15

limpyhobbler

(8,244 posts)
3. Sometimes I'm glad for not having a TV.
Wed Apr 17, 2013, 08:49 AM
Apr 2013

All the news I need is on the internet. But without having to listen to cable news playing the same sensational news loop over and over again.

LWolf

(46,179 posts)
4. I'm fine with that.
Wed Apr 17, 2013, 08:50 AM
Apr 2013

I understand the desire to rush to judgement; it's part of "closure." I would rather, though, simply wait to see what information surfaces, or make no judgement at all.

I've been dismayed, though, online and in person, to hear so many people defending "profiling" as a way to assign suspicion. At work, a colleague told me he was "all about profiling," and thought it would be okay to round up all the "arabs" in the area and then start eliminating the innocent. I asked him if that would have worked in Oklahoma City, and he said no, because there weren't many arabs there; they would have had to round up all the "blacks."

I pointed out that the perp wasn't black, and he said it was okay; they could get an apology as they were released.

I've seen some of the same sentiment here in the very small amount of time I've been online since Monday; assign judgment based on "profiling," or, in some cases, personal prejudice, rather than wait for actual evidence.

Jackpine Radical

(45,274 posts)
5. One thing I know about profiling.
Wed Apr 17, 2013, 09:04 AM
Apr 2013

It's a scam.

When you consider the base rates for this kind of offense, you will quickly realize that the data set doesn't provide enough "positive instances" (i.e. bombers) to generate any kind of meaningful statistics. And when you go out to apply these methods, even if they did have some minor predictive power, the number of false-positives would be overwhelming.

Wikipedia explains it much better than I was about to:

In a city of 1 million inhabitants there are 100 terrorists and 999,900 non-terrorists. To simplify the example, it is assumed that the only people in the city are inhabitants. Thus, the base rate probability of a randomly selected inhabitant of the city being a terrorist is 0.0001, and the base rate probability of that same inhabitant being a non-terrorist is 0.9999. In an attempt to catch the terrorists, the city installs an alarm system with a surveillance camera and automatic facial recognition software. The software has two failure rates of 1%:

The false negative rate: If the camera scans a terrorist, a bell will ring 99% of the time, and it will fail to ring 1% of the time.
The false positive rate: If the camera scans a non-terrorist, a bell will not ring 99% of the time, but it will ring 1% of the time.

Suppose now that an inhabitant triggers the alarm. What is the chance that the person is a terrorist? In other words, what is P(T|B), the probability that a terrorist has been detected given the ringing of the bell? Someone making the 'base rate fallacy' would infer that there is a 99% chance that the detected person is a terrorist. Although the inference seems to make sense, it is actually bad reasoning, and a calculation below will show that the chances they are a terrorist are actually near 1%, not near 99%.

The fallacy arises from confusing the natures of two different failure rates. The 'number of non-bells per 100 terrorists' and the 'number of non-terrorists per 100 bells' are unrelated quantities. One does not necessarily equal the other, and they don't even have to be almost equal. To show this, consider what happens if an identical alarm system were set up in a second city with no terrorists at all. As in the first city, the alarm sounds for 1 out of every 100 non-terrorist inhabitants detected, but unlike in the first city, the alarm never sounds for a terrorist. Therefore 100% of all occasions of the alarm sounding are for non-terrorists, but a false negative rate cannot even be calculated. The 'number of non-terrorists per 100 bells' in that city is 100, yet P(T|B) = 0%. There is zero chance that a terrorist has been detected given the ringing of the bell.

Imagine that the city's entire population of one million people pass in front of the camera. About 99 of the 100 terrorists will trigger the alarm—-and so will about 9,999 of the 999,900 non-terrorists. Therefore, about 10,098 people will trigger the alarm, among which about 99 will be terrorists. So the probability that a person triggering the alarm is actually a terrorist is only about 99 in 10,098, which is less than 1%, and very very far below our initial guess of 99%.

The base rate fallacy is so misleading in this example because there are many more non-terrorists than terrorists. If, instead, the city had about as many terrorists as non-terrorists, and the false-positive rate and the false-negative rate were nearly equal, then the probability of misidentification would be about the same as the false-positive rate of the device. These special conditions hold sometimes: as for instance, about half the women undergoing a pregnancy test are actually pregnant, and some pregnancy tests give about the same rates of false positives and of false negatives. In this case, the rate of false positives per positive test will be nearly equal to the rate of false positives per nonpregnant woman. This is why it is very easy to fall into this fallacy: by coincidence it gives the correct answer in many common situations.

In many real-world situations, though, particularly problems like detecting criminals in a largely law-abiding population, the small proportion of targets in the large population makes the base rate fallacy very applicable. Even a very low false-positive rate will result in so many false alarms as to make such a system useless in practice.

LWolf

(46,179 posts)
6. Yes.
Wed Apr 17, 2013, 09:06 AM
Apr 2013

Yet so many average citizens, and supposedly "liberal" people who should be on the side of civil liberties, are supporting it.

Javaman

(62,510 posts)
7. That's exactly why I have yet to comment on any thread (other than this one) yet.
Wed Apr 17, 2013, 09:08 AM
Apr 2013

So much stuff swirling around. The various government agencies are falling on this bombing like a ton of bricks.

So I choose the prudent path of waiting and seeing rather than speculating.

Better be thought the fool and remain quiet then open ones mouth and have it confirmed...and all that.

kentuck

(111,076 posts)
8. It shows how education and knowledge is so necessary...
Wed Apr 17, 2013, 09:35 AM
Apr 2013

to our existence. We have a need to know. That is what separates humanity from inhumanity.

Jackpine Radical

(45,274 posts)
10. There is a difference between a need to know and a need for closure.
Wed Apr 17, 2013, 10:04 AM
Apr 2013

In the incurious, uncertainty is a painful state. It arouses the fear of the unknown. They leap to the first simple-minded, semi-plausible explanation that comes along, as long as it's in accord with their pre-existing prejudices, in order to resolve the uncertainty, and once they have done so, it becomes almost impossible to dislodge them from their first, incorrect guesses. There were many studies in psychology, dating back to the 50's, examining these & related issues. Intolerance for ambiguity turns out to be one of the most robust components of the Authoritarian Personality.

The defining trait of any scientist is, or should be, curiosity, combined with T4A. That's why scientific thought seems so alien to the fundies.

Cleita

(75,480 posts)
9. Agree, but I hope we aren't in the dark for too long.
Wed Apr 17, 2013, 09:48 AM
Apr 2013

That itself will breed all kinds of outrageous theories from all sides.

kcr

(15,315 posts)
13. I don't agree.
Wed Apr 17, 2013, 10:20 AM
Apr 2013

This didn't happen in a vacuum. There are facts that are known. It's not like we don't' know when and where this happened, that the date has no significance, that there weren't people involved that would make significant targets for particular group. And it's perfectly okay to speculate about those facts. Those who are doing so are doing absolutely nothing wrong, and it doesn't make them any less liberal. If you don't want do that, that's fine, too.

Tommy_Carcetti

(43,166 posts)
14. From A Serious Man:
Wed Apr 17, 2013, 10:27 AM
Apr 2013

Clive's Father: Culture clash. Culture clash.

Larry Gopnik: With all respect, Mr. Park, I don't think it's that.

Clive's Father: Yes.

Larry Gopnik: No. It would be a culture clash if it were the custom in your land to bribe people for grades.

Clive's Father: Yes.

Larry Gopnik: So... you're saying it is the custom?

Clive's Father: No, this is a defamation. Grounds for lawsuit.

Larry Gopnik: Let me get this straight: you're threatening to sue me for defaming your son?

Clive's Father: Yes.

Larry Gopnik: See... if it were defamation there would have to be someone I was defaming him to, or I... all right, I... let's keep it simple. I could pretend the money never appeared. That's not defaming anyone.

Clive's Father: Yes. And a passing grade.

Larry Gopnik: Passing grade.

Clive's Father: Yes.

Larry Gopnik: Or... you'll sue me.

Clive's Father: For taking money.

Larry Gopnik: So he *did* leave the money.

Clive's Father: This is defamation!

Larry Gopnik: It doesn't make sense. Either he left the money or he didn't.

Clive's Father: Please. Accept the mystery.

Larry Gopnik: You can't have it both ways!

Clive's Father: Why not?

 

Lurks Often

(5,455 posts)
15. Agreed. There have been some seriously stupid posts since the bombing
Wed Apr 17, 2013, 10:29 AM
Apr 2013

Far too many people are quick to place blame without any evidence or suggest drastic measures that are in gross violation of people's civil rights.

And it isn't just here and it doesn't help that the media is fanning the fire by speculating wildly when they have no facts or evidence either.

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