Aurora Borealis tonight? Dazzling northern lights forecast

[JimDandy]

Aurora Borealis tonight? Yes, New York, Pennsylvania, and parts of the US Midwest could see a rare spectacular aurora borealis light show tonight, based on the forecasts.

By David Clark Scott, Staff writer / April 13, 2013

You don't have to be in chilly Fairbanks, Alaska or Yellowknife, Canada, to see the Aurora Borealis tonight.

Seattle, New York, Pittsburgh, and Washington might see a display of the northern lights after sunset. At least that's what some forecasting models are saying.

Thanks to a big solar flare that left the Sun Thursday, Accuweather.com is generating some buzz online by predicting a "dazzling" light show tonight:

"The flare is also expected to cause vibrant northern lights from the Arctic as far south as New York, the Dakotas, Washington and Michigan, with a smaller possibility of it going into Pennsylvania and Iowa, even Kansas. The lights are currently estimated for 8 p.m. EDT Saturday arrival, with a possible deviation of up to seven hours. If the radiation hits much after dark settles on the East Coast the lights may be missed and will instead only be visible for the West."

They've also provided a pretty cool map that may or may not prove accurate...

The opportunity to see the northern lights at many of these latitudes is a rare treat, but the usual caveats for celestial events still apply. A successful sighting will be dependent on a variety of local factors, such as cloud cover, full moon, and urban light pollution.

http://www.csmonitor.com/Science/2013/0413/Aurora-Borealis-tonight-Dazzling-northern-lights-forecast?nav=656529-csm_article-mostViewed
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Darn. Wish I was still living in Washington State. The map shows there's no chance of me seeing it in Colorado.

[NutmegYankee]

1. It was supposed to be last night, and it was a bust.

[JimDandy]

2. Where are you?

I think I'll leave this post up anyway. I really put it up for the map produced by Accuweather showing the chance of where the aurora might be seen, because I've never seen this type of map before.

Did their prediction have your area as only having a fair chance of seeing it?

[NutmegYankee]

5. Southeastern Connecticut

No, I was in the Good zone, and after about 8 PM, we got a very nice clear sky. There was just no aurora this far south.

[JimDandy]

8. So the map based on where the expected radiation would hit was wrong itself.

And because they didn't combine that map with maps of local weather forecasts, the event seems to have disappointed a lot of people.

[NutmegYankee]

9. The event was guessed at between 6-8 in magnitude.

It needed to be on the high end to get down to my latitude, and it wasn't a big enough event in the end. Oh well...

[Cirque du So-What]

3. Yes, it was last night

Even though I lived within a stone's throw of the 'good' zone depicted on the map, the skies over my locale were obscured by clouds.

[JimDandy]

11. I wonder if the technology to develop maps of the radiation

is only as good as what we could expect for hurricane maps 30 and 40 years ago?

[Cirque du So-What]

12. I am woefully unqualified to venture a guess

but I'll give it a shot anyway. To my layman's mind, it seems that predicting the exact path of solar particles from an eruption is a crap shoot at best, given that there are a good number of variables - most notably the exact point at which these particles begin to interact with the earth's ionosphere.

[JimDandy]

13. And apparently the magnitude

according to NutmegYankee upthread. Thansks for giving it a 'think' (I watch 'Abby's flying fairy school' episodes on Sesame Street when I care for my grandson, and they give a 'single twinkle think' to figure out problems.)

[BumRushDaShow]

15. The Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellites (POES)

have been undergoing on and off maintenance during the recent weeks, with another maintenance period listed below -

SPECIAL MESSAGE

Due to scheduled network maintenance, the OSPO web site will be unavailable on April 16 from 1200 to 1800 UTC (8 a.m. to 2 p.m. EDT). We apologize for the inconvenience this may cause. Please e-mail User Services at [e-mail] with any questions. Other related information can be found on the General Satellite Messages page on the SSD web site.

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Operations/POES/index.html

POES Data Difficulties
Due to annual maintenance, POES data are not fully available. As SWPC works to address the situation, we have an auroral test product that you might be interested in at http://helios.swpc.noaa.gov/ovation/.

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/pmap/index.html

I am guessing because of the maintenance, some critical data (for higher resolution predictions) have not been fed into the models and the extrapolations are off...

Last night when I was searching out some info on what was going on (or not going on), I looked at the link that NOAA pointed to as a test platform here - http://helios.swpc.noaa.gov/ovation/ - and this showed (at least last night's image) aurora mostly expected around the poles and Canada and not much below the Canadian border.

[Bohunk68]

4. totally overcast in Upstate NY

where we were alleged to have a fair view of it last night.

[BumRushDaShow]

6. Bust last night here in Philly

There was a tiny window of opportunity of clear skies here between ~8:00 - 8:30 pm and then a few clouds trickled in and eventually became a deck that obscured the sky, and that was the end of that.

[JimDandy]

14. Bummer. Skip Rock, MN seems to be the closest

area to you that got to view it.

[BumRushDaShow]

16. I saw one picture posted by someone in Wisconsin. n/t

[MineralMan]

7. As always, it is overcast here in MN.

No joy for me.

[JimDandy]

10. The Accuweather site has posted only one photo of the Aurora taken in Minnessota.

All the rest were taken in Canada and Alaska.

I'm disappointed because I saw in the article that it said the Aurora could be viewed Saturday and Sunday and missed that it was early this morning instead of tonight. Sigh...

ETA: http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/dazzling-northern-lights-photo/10269611

[BumRushDaShow]

17. Spaceweather.com had one from Wisconsin & one from Michigan

(Wisconsin)



(Michigan)



http://www.spaceweather.com/

[NutmegYankee]

18. That confirms what I found, all were at the latitude of northern Maine or higher.

I live in a nice rural town here in Conn, and I saw nothing at all despite a clear sky. And there is very little to the North of me to light pollute my northern view.