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MineralMan

(146,192 posts)
Sun Apr 14, 2013, 03:53 PM Apr 2013

If your House representative is a Republican,

Do you know of a potential Democratic candidate or candidates in your district who could beat him or her? If there's no chance, is there a nearby congressional district where beating a Republican office holder is possible?

Let us know the state and district. I'm working on a list of congressional districts where the Republican congressperson is vulnerable, and want to get input from people in those districts.

Right now, Minnesota's CD-6 is currently misrepresented by Michelle Bachman. A candidate with a real chance to beat her has announced that he will run, Jim Graves, who lost very narrowly in 2012.

Thanks!

GOTV 2014!

28 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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If your House representative is a Republican, (Original Post) MineralMan Apr 2013 OP
Here's one list of 25 vulnerable House seats held by Republicans: MineralMan Apr 2013 #1
#2 Mike Coffman. We worked so damned hard to unseat him. DevonRex Apr 2013 #10
Thank you. That does sound promising. MineralMan Apr 2013 #11
in my new district tabbycat31 Apr 2013 #2
Maybe Democratic voters can work on getting him MineralMan Apr 2013 #3
I said that as soon as the district was redrawn (12/2011) tabbycat31 Apr 2013 #5
Interesting thought treestar Apr 2013 #28
In Minnesota's CD-2, as well, MineralMan Apr 2013 #4
you might start here hfojvt Apr 2013 #6
Thanks very much. I'll go there and have a look. MineralMan Apr 2013 #7
Miller, Valadao, Denham Brother Buzz Apr 2013 #8
Yes, I noticed those in some other lists. MineralMan Apr 2013 #9
We need a margin to spare, and then some Brother Buzz Apr 2013 #14
That's my opinion, too. MineralMan Apr 2013 #15
might also check this out hfojvt Apr 2013 #12
Excellent idea. Thanks! MineralMan Apr 2013 #13
In the Pennsylvania 12th district... PennsylvaniaMatt Apr 2013 #16
Thank you. I hope that district turns over. MineralMan Apr 2013 #17
I agree about the 12th. But the 9th (Shuster) is untouchable and he seems to be locked in forever. AlinPA Apr 2013 #24
Yes, unfortunately... PennsylvaniaMatt Apr 2013 #25
Cory Gardner, Colorado CD-4 madamesilverspurs Apr 2013 #18
I hope you can find a good candidate. MineralMan Apr 2013 #19
none unless it is a football player OKNancy Apr 2013 #20
My Rep is Virginia Foxx and from what I can tell, the majority of people in the district byeya Apr 2013 #21
Tom Petri here in Sheboygan. Archae Apr 2013 #22
ID-1 is vulnerable, but not to a Democrat jmowreader Apr 2013 #23
Rodney Frehlinghuysen-One of many Long term NJ republican rep. large district, time to go graham4anything Apr 2013 #26
Joe Wilson. GoCubsGo Apr 2013 #27

DevonRex

(22,541 posts)
10. #2 Mike Coffman. We worked so damned hard to unseat him.
Sun Apr 14, 2013, 04:29 PM
Apr 2013

2. (CO 6) Mike Coffman: Coffman only managed a 48.7-45.1 over Democrat Joe Miklosi in 2012 and CO-6 went for Obama with 51.6 percent voting for the President. Democrats already have a strong recruit in this race in Andrew Romanoff. Coffman is a Tea Party wing-nut and is out of step with this blue-leaning district
http://www.examiner.com/article/the-most-vulnerable-republican-house-seats-2014
Snip

This was quite possibly the only fair redistricting case in the entire United States and we came so close to getting rid of Coffman. The redistricting put us almost back to where we always had been before they made us redder than Colorado Springs. They deliberately tried to minimize us and even embarrass us here.

They wound up embarrassing themselves with Tancredo. And Coffman is following in his footsteps, joining the tea party nuts. He is a mean bastard, I can tell you that. I've spoken with him face to face. He doesn't have kind eyes.

tabbycat31

(6,336 posts)
2. in my new district
Sun Apr 14, 2013, 04:09 PM
Apr 2013

There's only one Democrat who has the money and name ID to take on the current GOP rep (he's an outspoken critic of our GOP governor). He'd be a very good fit for the district. However, I think pigs will fly out of my ass before he quits his (very lucrative) day job to run for congress. He's better known as "The Boss."

The current GOP rep has views similar to Todd Akin's when it comes to reproductive rights. He's been representing this blue state since I was a baby (and I'm now 33).

MineralMan

(146,192 posts)
3. Maybe Democratic voters can work on getting him
Sun Apr 14, 2013, 04:11 PM
Apr 2013

to run, if he could win. Now's the time to start working on him, I think. Early is good.

tabbycat31

(6,336 posts)
5. I said that as soon as the district was redrawn (12/2011)
Sun Apr 14, 2013, 04:22 PM
Apr 2013

If he did announce his candidacy, he'd have nationwide support and no problem raising the $$ (and he could easily self fund even with buying into the NY and Philly media markets). Celebrities have run for office before but asking someone to give up a 40+ year music career to run for congress is a lot to ask.

We do have a mayor in the district that has built a very strong profile within the state with his leadership in response to Sandy. I can see him running at some point.

treestar

(82,383 posts)
28. Interesting thought
Sun Apr 14, 2013, 08:38 PM
Apr 2013

Like the Ashley Judd thing. We could have a Congress of blue celebrities from red districts.

MineralMan

(146,192 posts)
4. In Minnesota's CD-2, as well,
Sun Apr 14, 2013, 04:16 PM
Apr 2013

the incumbent, John Kline is vulnerable, and won by only 2 percentage points in 2012. He already has an opponent, and he may be considering running for Senate against Al Franken. I consider this House race winnable, with hard work.

hfojvt

(37,573 posts)
6. you might start here
Sun Apr 14, 2013, 04:23 PM
Apr 2013
http://journals.democraticunderground.com/hfojvt/99

although that is now four years old.

Jenkins might be vulnerable in the 2nd, Schlingensiepen is talking about running again.

I would expect Yoder to be vulnerable in the 3rd. It was held by a Democrat for about five terms, but we lost it in 2010 and then did not even have a candidate there in 2012.

Brother Buzz

(36,214 posts)
8. Miller, Valadao, Denham
Sun Apr 14, 2013, 04:26 PM
Apr 2013

Three of the top six House pickup opportunities are Republican-held seats in California. California flipped three seats in the last election, and I'm looking forward watching three more seats flip. Now, where's that pesky checkbook?

MineralMan

(146,192 posts)
9. Yes, I noticed those in some other lists.
Sun Apr 14, 2013, 04:28 PM
Apr 2013

California has the potential to add seats for Democrats for sure.

My understanding is that we need a net gain of 14 seats. I can see no reason why that cannot be accomplished, with a margin to spare, but it will take a lot of work. I know that I'll be focusing on those two Minnesota seats, since my own district is pretty much a sure thing for Betty McCollum, who shows no sign of wanting to leave.

Brother Buzz

(36,214 posts)
14. We need a margin to spare, and then some
Sun Apr 14, 2013, 04:39 PM
Apr 2013

California, like a lot of other areas, is saddled with a number of necessary, but evil, Blue Dog Democrats; I say, "flip the House first, then start weeding the Blue Dogs".

MineralMan

(146,192 posts)
15. That's my opinion, too.
Sun Apr 14, 2013, 04:41 PM
Apr 2013

Some districts could only elect a Blue Dog. Otherwise it would be a Republican. The only good thing about Blue Dog Democrats is that they generally vote with the Democratic caucus, and that's very important. A Republican rarely does that, so there is a real difference in outcomes.

I can live with a Blue Dog, but I can't live with a Republican. But, I agree that we should start weeding them out, once we have a majority in the House.

PennsylvaniaMatt

(966 posts)
16. In the Pennsylvania 12th district...
Sun Apr 14, 2013, 04:44 PM
Apr 2013

Republican Keith Rothfus only beat Democrat Mark Critz by 4% (52-48), but that was in a year when there was heavy Republican support in the rural areas because of the propaganda about Obama's "war on coal." The district encompases parts of Allegheny County (Pittsburgh area - very Democratic) and parts of Cambria County (In 2008, we narrowly went for Obama, but in 2012, because of the "war on coal" propaganda, Cambria Co. went for Romney by 18%, yet Dems still hold pretty much all of the local seats and WAY outnumber Republicans in registration. This was the district that John Murtha once held. Since Rothfus used a lot of that coal rhetoric in 2012, I have a hard time believing that he will hold onto his seat in 2014 if we run a strong Democratic candidate.

PennsylvaniaMatt

(966 posts)
25. Yes, unfortunately...
Sun Apr 14, 2013, 08:13 PM
Apr 2013

I live in the extreme corner of the 9th district (I can walk to the 12th district) and you are right. The problem is Blair, Bedford, and the rest of the counties down that way in his district are extremely Republican. I do wish the PA Democrats would run SOMEONE instead of having Shuster be unapposed. I used to wonder if a Republican would challenge him for the nomination like Michael DelGrosso did in 2004 (Shuster only narrowly won that race) just to get some fresh blood in Washington. I don't see that happening now however as long as he is the Chairman of the Transportation Committee.

madamesilverspurs

(15,784 posts)
18. Cory Gardner, Colorado CD-4
Sun Apr 14, 2013, 04:47 PM
Apr 2013

Slimiest of the slimey, totally in thrall to big oil. And upon gaining the seat, his first big move was to allign himself with Todd Akin in the effort to "re-define" rape, then he bragged about it endlessly.

Gardner replaced Betsy Markey, who had unseated the embarrassing Marilyn Musgrave.

We don't presently have a viable candidate, but will be thrilled to see Andrew Romanoff knock off Mike Coffmann in CD-6. But anyone who'd care to wish us luck in unseating Gardner, we'll take that and any other help you can offer!

 

byeya

(2,842 posts)
21. My Rep is Virginia Foxx and from what I can tell, the majority of people in the district
Sun Apr 14, 2013, 05:24 PM
Apr 2013

are as screwy as she is.
Not much chance here I don't think.

Archae

(46,262 posts)
22. Tom Petri here in Sheboygan.
Sun Apr 14, 2013, 05:33 PM
Apr 2013

His is a fairly safe district, and Petri has been kissing up to the Teabaggers also.

jmowreader

(50,452 posts)
23. ID-1 is vulnerable, but not to a Democrat
Sun Apr 14, 2013, 05:36 PM
Apr 2013

There is the growing perception in the Panhandle that Raul Labrador (who is a teabagger and a Mormon) is not conservative enough.

There are two Idahos: North Idaho and South Idaho. South Idaho is North Utah; North Idaho is where Ruby Ridge and the Aryan Nations were. During our Repuke caucus last year Romney didn't win one northern county; in some of those counties Romney was the first voted off the island. (Santorum was the choice up here.) IIRC in Bonner County Romney received exactly zero votes.

I have a feeling that a Rally Right/Reagan Republican candidate who is a "Christian" (lots of very conservative churches not aligned with any denomination up here) would beat Labrador in the primary.

As far as putting a Democrat in his seat? Forget it. You can't get elected dogcatcher in three of the five northern counties unless you have an R behind your name.

 

graham4anything

(11,464 posts)
26. Rodney Frehlinghuysen-One of many Long term NJ republican rep. large district, time to go
Sun Apr 14, 2013, 08:33 PM
Apr 2013

11th district.Very oddly shaped redistricting, covering over 54 towns amazingly enough.


wiki-the free encyc.

Frelinghuysen is a member of a family long prominent in New Jersey politics. He is the son of Peter Hood Ballantine Frelinghuysen II, great-great-grandson of Frederick T. Frelinghuysen, and great-great-great-nephew of Theodore Frelinghuysen, who each represented New Jersey in the Congress. After graduating from Hobart College in 1969, where he had been president of the Kappa Alpha Society, Frelinghuysen enrolled at Trinity College for graduate work. However, the United States Army drafted Frelinghuysen before he could graduate from Trinity. Following basic training at Fort Dix, he served with the 93rd Engineer Battalion in the Mekong Delta of Vietnam.
...
Midway through his sixth term, incumbent U.S. Congressman Dean Gallo decided to retire after discovering he had incurable prostate cancer (he died two days before the election). Rodney was chosen to be the Republican nominee after Gallo dropped out. He defeated Democrat State Senator Frank Herbert 71%-28% in November 1994.[2] After that, he won re-election with at least 62% of the vote. He was only challenged in the Republican primary twice, 2008 and 2010. In 2008, he defeated Kate Erber in the June primary 87%-13%.[3] In 2010, he defeated Richard Luzzi 76%-24%

Like most other Republicans from New Jersey, Frelinghuysen has a relatively moderate voting record. He is a member of the Republican Main Street Partnership, the Republican Majority For Choice, Republicans for Choice and Republicans For Environmental Protection. However, the Sunlight Foundation pointed out that among the 435 members of the U.S. House of Representatives, Frelinghuysen has the third-highest amount of investment in oil stocks.[5] Frelinghuysen's scores from the League of Conservation Voters dropped sharply after 2008, from the 42-67% range during 1999-2008 to 21-23% during 2009-12. During the 2011-12 Congress, his League of Conservation Voters rating was 11th out of 13 members of the House from New Jersey, and 4th among the 6 Republicans from the state.[6]

Frelinghuysen's record on abortion is somewhat mixed, receiving a 50% from the NRLC and a 30% from NARAL in 2003.[7] When he was a member of the New Jersey General Assembly, he made a small financial contribution to the activist/civil disobedience group ACT UP.

In 2000, left-wing activist Michael Moore attempted to have a ficus challenge Frelinghuysen's unopposed re-election, to make the point that most Members of Congress "run unopposed in their primaries and 95% are re-elected every time in the general election". Adding, "we think it's time to point out to the Frelinghuysen family that we live in a democracy, not a dynasty."[8] (Since 1793, New Jersey has sent six Frelinghuysens to Congress — four to the U.S. Senate and two to the House of Representatives.)

Year Democrat Votes Pct Republican Votes Pct 3rd Party Party Votes Pct 3rd Party Party Votes Pct
1994 Frank Herbert 50,211 28% Rodney Frelinghuysen 127,868 71% Mary Frueholz LaRouche Was Right 1,065 1% *
1996 Chris Evangel 78,742 31% Rodney Frelinghuysen 169,091 66% Ed DeMott Independent 2,870 1% Austin S. Lett Independent 2,618 1% *
1998 John P. Scollo 44,160 30% Rodney Frelinghuysen 100,910 68% Austin S. Lett Independent 1,737 1% Agnes James Independent 1,409 1% *
2000 John P. Scollo 80,958 30% Rodney Frelinghuysen 186,140 68% John Pickarski Independent 5,199 2% James Spinosa Independent 1,541 1%
2002 Vij Pawar 48,477 26% Rodney Frelinghuysen 132,938 72% Richard S. Roth Libertarian 2,263 1%
2004 James W. Buell 91,811 31% Rodney Frelinghuysen 200,915 68% John Mele Immigration
Moratorium Now 1,746 1% Austin S. Lett Libertarian 1,530 1%
2006 Tom Wyka 74,414 37% Rodney Frelinghuysen 126,085 62% Richard S. Roth Libertarian 1,730 1% John Mele Constitution 842 <1%
2008 Tom Wyka 105,095 37% Rodney Frelinghuysen 177,059 62% Chandler Tedholm For the People 3,526 1%
2010 Douglas Herbert 55,472 31% Rodney Frelinghuysen 122,149 67% Jim Gawron Libertarian 4,179 2%

GoCubsGo

(32,061 posts)
27. Joe Wilson.
Sun Apr 14, 2013, 08:34 PM
Apr 2013

It's more likely I'll be gone before that turd is. Have I told you lately how much I hate this place?

On the bright side, my Rep. before redistricting was Jeff Duncan, the batshit-craziest of the batshit crazy. And, as was said about another teabagger, most of the people in his district are as insane as Duncan, if not more so:
http://www.politico.com/story/2013/04/jeff-duncan-gun-registry-like-rwanda-89974.html

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