Could an accident with a missle start a war?

[Renew Deal]

Here's one crazy scenario....

North Korea fires a missile over Japan towards Guam. Japan shoots it down over land. The missile crashes into a school yard killing dozens. Japan retaliates against NK. NK starts shooting at Japan, the US, and South Korea. China steps up and backs up North Korea. China decides to assert themselves over the disputed islands. Japan is not going to stand for that and now Japan and China are at war in addition to the Japanese war in NK and the Chinese war in NK.

Can't happen? Far Fetched? It's not the first crazy thing to set off a war... http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assassination_of_Archduke_Franz_Ferdinand_of_Austria

That is all for now. Sweet dreams

[brooklynite]

1. More likely the missile hits the UFO orbiting overhead and starts an alien invasion...

...NK has TWO missiles and a crappy Air Force; how do they "start shooting at Japan"?

[Rex]

2. Well since this is pure speculation

sure why not? That can start a war with anyone imo. I mean if it lands in the sea like all the rest, then I doubt you will see a response.

[markiv]

3. archduke of austria was jfk's worry during cuban missile crisis nt

[longship]

4. DPRK missiles more likely to hit Pyongyang than ROK, Guam, Japan, etc.

And DPRK does not likely have a nuclear weapon. Even if they do, it is not likely to have weaponized let alone configured for their missiles, which are none too reliable.

I mean, after all, this shit really is rocket science and the DPRK has not one clearly successful test of any of those elements. Especially their nuke tests which very much look like nuclear duds.

Relax, people.

[Art_from_Ark]

8. North Korean missiles have already flown over Japanese airspace

One that was launched in 1998 flew over Hokkaido. The most recent one, which was launched last December, flew over Okinawa. Thus, their missiles definitely have the range to hit Japan, and the Japanese government has deemed it to be a serious enough threat to put Tokyo area defenses on red alert.

[longship]

10. But this is apparently a new MRBM.

And their past tests have been a bit dodgy and nobody outside the DPRK knows whether they are going where they are supposed to go.

We kind of know that their nukes are not very good, plus weaponizing them is a question, let alone putting them on a missile. AFAIK, they haven't had a single successful test. The last one apparently had only a 6 KTon yield and produced no apparent chain reaction daughter products. It was a U core, which is pretty simple and they couldn't even get that to work.

So, who knows what they have.


But you are correct, the people within the putative range of this thing should take precautions. But people in Austin, TX should sleep soundly. The US Navy has assets in the area, too.

[Poll_Blind]

5. Nah, not likely IMO. Remeber Iraq was launching SCUDS into Tel Aviv and...

...the Israelis were still able to hold off.

I mean, if that is not a sign of restraint on a governmental level, I don't know what is. Japan may shoot them down if they fly overhead. Might. But nobody's in a hurry to start WW III- except Jong-un.

My 2 cents.

PB

[markiv]

6. they held off.....for a 10 billion dollar demand to the USA

on the spot

which we paid

[Poll_Blind]

7. Interesting point!

[markiv]

11. i remember when it happened

and was shocked at the brazenness of it

[defacto7]

9. My bet...

China under no circumstances will take the NK side if war breaks. They have too much to loose. Their best interest would be to pummel NK before it messes up SK.

One other thing... if Japan shoots it down and it falls on Japan, why would Japan retaliate?