A real question: Is a Democratic House even possible?

[cthulu2016]

Republicans lied our way into a war where we got our ass kicked (the bigger crime, politically) and generally fucked up everything in sight, so we got a Democratic House from 2006-2010.

It seems like a similar resurgence of hatred of Republicans ought to get us back in charge...

But there has been a census and a round of redistricting since then, and most state legislatures are controlled by bust-out psychos that make the John Birch society look like ACORN.

I do not know that the same overwhelming public revulsion that switched the House in 2006 would switch the House today.

I assume folks have tried to calculate this stuff. Would Nancy Pelosi ave ever been speaker of the House under current national districting?

[msongs]

1. not when the president is trashing the party brand nt

[RKP5637]

5. Republicans I know that voted Dem to save SS and Medicare have told me F no next

time around 2016. They plan to stick with whichever republican candidate runs for president.

[dsc]

2. It will be difficult but possible

We have to win by around 4 to 5% under most projections to get the majority. That is doable but not terribly likely.

[cthulu2016]

3. Interesting. thank you.

[graham4anything]

4. If Mike Bloomberg can find the 17 candidates needed, it should be easy.If not, 2016 easier

[Initech]

6. Until we make Fox News irrelevant I don't think it's possible.

The problem is people still hang on this propaganda machines' every word and take it as fact. That's how we get morons like the Tea Party in charge. Until we as a party stand up to Fox's bullshit I'm not sure a fully liberal house is possible.

[MadHound]

7. Not with Obama and the Dems acting more and more like 'Pugs,

If they push through these cuts to SS, Medicare and Medicaid, they will be losing, both in '14 and '16

[Kolesar]

8. An initiative in Ohio would have forced redistricting ASAP and before 2022

That would have fixed Ohio's gross gerrymandering. The initiative failed because Husted, the secretary of state, worded the initiative badly to make it unpopular.

[BumRushDaShow]

9. Off-Presidential General Election turnout in 2010 was 42%

http://www.pennlive.com/midstate/index.ssf/2010/11/voter_turnout_dropped_slightly.html

but was upwards of 60% in 2012.

One needs to get off-year turnout up.

I think despite all the gerrymandering, the fact that Democrats picked up something like 7 seats and really didn't get chance to pump money into the Congressional Races in 2012, means there is potential in 2014 for the House. Here in PA, Democrats made in-roads in state offices (including gaining a Democratic AG), the Governor was down to 26% approval back in February and I think we are poised for some movement after this past election - http://www.pennlive.com/midstate/index.ssf/2012/11/pennsylvania_election_results.html

Nationally, I think the GOP is fracturing thanks to the teacrazies.

[MineralMan]

10. It depends on whether Democratic turnout is high.

If it's high, a majority is possible.

For example, in Minnesota, a strong DFL candidate is emerging against John Kline, and the bat-shit crazy woman from CD-6 is facing an ethics investigation. A strong DFL candidate and high Democratic turnout could defeat her.

On the other hand, if too many Democrats sit on their hands, it will be impossible.

Congressional representatives are not President Obama. He is not running. Democrats should turn out in droves and make a Democratic majority in the House happen. It's that simple. To do otherwise is to give up.

[Andy823]

12. +1000 nt

[Warren DeMontague]

11. Given -as you say- what has happened with redistricting in many states, I don't know.

I sure hope so.

Part of the larger political problem in this country is that while a decided majority are progressive and liberal, those people are concentrated overwhelmingly into populous urban areas and districts.

The Senate has the most pronounced effect, of course, whereby 400,000 Wyoming Residents control the same 1/50th slice of the body as 34 Million Californians do.

But those house districts are compressed, too- to the point of having large concentrations in urban areas that are very homogeneous but dilute the overall effectiveness of the progressive urban vote.

All told this has the clear effect of skewing the government in a more rural, conservative direction than where the majority of the people sit.