Some good news about rape--There is much less of it these days.

[Comrade Grumpy]

http://bjs.gov/index.cfm?ty=pbdetail&iid=4594

Fresh off the presses from the federal Bureau of Justice Statistics:

Female Victims of Sexual Violence, 1994-2010

Marcus Berzofsky, Dr.P.H., RTI, Christopher Krebs, Ph.D., RTI, Lynn Langton, Ph.D., BJS, Michael Planty, Ph.D., BJS, Hope Smiley-McDonald, Ph.D., RTI

March 7, 2013 NCJ 240655

Presents trends in the rate of completed or attempted rape or sexual assault against females from 1995 to 2010. The report examines demographic characteristics of female victims of sexual violence and characteristics of the offender and incident, including victim-offender relationship, whether the offender had a weapon, and the location of the victimization. The report also examines changes over time in the percentages of female victims of sexual violence who suffered an injury and received formal medical treatment, reported the victimization to the police, and received assistance from a victim service provider. Data are from the National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS), which collects information on nonfatal crimes, reported and not reported to the police, against persons age 12 or older from a nationally representative sample of U.S. households.

Highlights:

From 1995 to 2010, the estimated annual rate of female rape or sexual assault victimizations declined 58%, from 5.0 victimizations per 1,000 females age 12 or older to 2.1 per 1,000.
In 2005-10, females who were age 34 or younger, who lived in lower income households, and who lived in rural areas experienced some of the highest rates of sexual violence.
In 2005-10, the offender was armed with a gun, knife, or other weapon in 11% of rape or sexual assault victimizations.
In 2005-10, 78% of sexual violence involved an offender who was a family member, intimate partner, friend, or acquaintance.

Press Release

ADVANCE FOR RELEASE AT 10:00 A.M. EST Bureau of Justice Statistics
THURSDAY, MARCH 7, 2013 Contact: Kara McCarthy [phone]
HTTP://WWW.BJS.GOV/ After hours: [phone]

OVER 60 PERCENT DECLINE IN SEXUAL VIOLENCE AGAINST FEMALES FROM 1995 TO 2010
WASHINGTON – From 1995 to 2005, sexual violence against U.S. female residents age 12 or older declined 64 percent from 5.0 per 1,000 females to 1.8, and remained unchanged through 2010, according to a report, Female Victims of Sexual Violence, 1994-2010, released today by the Justice Department’s Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS).

These estimates of sexual violence from 1994 to 2010, averaged across two years and reported as the most recent year, are based on data from the annual National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS). Sexual violence against females includes completed, attempted, or threatened rape or sexual assault. In 2010, females experienced 270,000 rape or sexual assault victimizations at a rate of about two victimizations per 1,000 females age 12 or older.

In 1995, 29 percent of rape or sexual assault victimizations against females were reported to the police. This percentage increased to 56 percent in 2003 before declining to 35 percent in 2010. Of the sexual victimizations reported to the police in 2005-10, about 64 percent were reported to the police directly by the victims, 10 percent by another household member and 14 percent by an official other than the police. About 84 percent of the victims stated that the police came to the victim after being notified.

When police responded after being notified, the most common police activity according to the victim was to take a report. In 2005-10, police took a report in 86 percent of reported victimizations and questioned witnesses or conducted a search for the offender in 48 percent of reported victimizations. The percentage of reported victimizations in which the police collected evidence increased from eight percent in 1994-98 to 19 percent in 2005-10.

The percentage of reported rape or sexual assault victimizations that resulted in an arrest either at the scene or during a follow-up investigation decreased from 47 percent in 1994-98 to 31 percent in 2005-10. Overall, out of the 283,200 annual average rape or sexual assault victimizations in 2005-10, both reported and not reported to the police, approximately 12 percent resulted in an arrest.

Other findings showed—

The majority of sexual violence against females involved someone the victim knew. In 2005-10, 78 percent of sexual violence involved an offender who was a family member, intimate partner, friend or acquaintance.
About 38 percent of sexual violence was committed by a friend or acquaintance, 34 percent by an intimate partner (former or current spouse, girlfriend, boyfriend) and 6 percent by a relative or family member. Strangers committed about 22 percent of all sexual violence, a percentage that remained unchanged from 1994 to 2010.
In 2005-10, the offender was reported to be armed with a gun, knife or other weapon in 11 percent of rape or sexual assault victimizations.
In 2005-10, about 58 percent of female victims of sexual violence suffered a physical injury during the attack, such as cuts, bruises, internal injuries, broken bones, gunshot wounds or rape injuries. This percentage remained unchanged from 1994-98 to 2005-10.
The percentage of females who were physically injured during a rape or sexual assault and received some type of treatment for their injuries increased from 26 percent in 1994-98 to 35 percent in 2005-10.
In 2005-10, 80 percent of female rape or sexual assault victims who were treated for physical injuries received care in a hospital, doctor’s office or emergency room as compared to 65 percent in 1994-98.
In 2005-10, about one in four (23 percent) rape or sexual assault victims received help or advice from a victim service agency.
The NCVS is the largest data collection on criminal victimization independent of crimes reported by law enforcement agencies to the FBI’s Uniform Crime Reporting Program (UCR)—the nation’s other key measure of the extent and nature of crime in the U.S. During 2010, about 81,950 households and 146,570 persons were interviewed for the NCVS. The NCVS is a self-reporting survey with the first interview conducted in-person. Follow-up in-person or telephone interviews are conducted every six-months for three years.

The report, Female Victims of Sexual Violence, 1994-2010 (NCJ 240655), was written by BJS statisticians Michael Planty, Ph.D., and Lynn Langton, Ph.D., and Christopher Krebs, Ph.D., Marcus Berzofsky, Dr.P.H., and Hope Smiley-McDonald, Ph.D., of RTI International. More information on criminal victimization and sexual violence from 1994 to 2010 is available from the NCVS Victimization Analysis Tool on the BJS website at http://www.bjs.gov/. The full text of the report, related documents and other BJS statistical resources can also be found on the BJS website.

# # #

The Office of Justice Programs (OJP), headed by Acting Assistant Attorney General Mary Lou Leary, provides federal leadership in developing the nation’s capacity to prevent and control crime, administer justice, and assist victims. OJP has six components: the Bureau of Justice Assistance; the Bureau of Justice Statistics; the National Institute of Justice; the Office of Juvenile Justice and Delinquency Prevention; the Office for Victims of Crime; and the Office of Sex Offender Sentencing, Monitoring, Apprehending, Registering, and Tracking. More information about OJP can be found at http://www.ojp.gov.

[Comrade Grumpy]

1. Hello?

Well, this is weird. Usually, any thread with the word "rape" in it generates hundreds if not thousands of reads and dozens if not hundreds of replies.

Yet this one, with an actual important study with some heartening findings, sinks like a stone.

Does it not fit the narrative?

[sibelian]

2. Certainly doesn't fit the narrative.

People have already decided what they want to think, you see. I think your post is cool, tho,

[The Link]

4. What narrative?

[snooper2]

7. narrative "rape culture is alive and well and growing"

[Comrade Grumpy]

9. Yeah, that's the one.

That would seem to be not be the case, if you look at these numbers.

That said, while there has been an impressive decline in rape, there's still a whole lot of it.

[kestrel91316]

51. Rape culture is alive and well, as recent news events have amply demonstrated.

Maybe it's not growing, but it is still a huge problem in the US and elsewhere.

But go right on mocking women's concerns.

OINK OINK OINK

[Rex]

26. Is that what your goal was?

[RainDog]

3. good news! n/t

[Demoiselle]

5. This is good news, I think.

[justiceischeap]

6. I could post lots of articles that say the decline in rape stats

is because rape is still underreported, or that rape victims are discouraged by police officers not to report. So, though it doesn't fit into whatever narrative you think some are trying to create, some of us know the reasons why it appears that ALL crime is down.

Public safety chair wants hearing on report that D.C. police didn’t investigate rape cases (2013)
http://articles.washingtonpost.com/2013-01-24/local/36517619_1_sexual-assault-sexual-abuse-197-page-report

Rape Is Like a Football Game: Why Survivors of Sexual Assault Do Not Report (2013)
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/annie-e-clark/rape-is-like-a-football-g_b_2769576.html

80% of women don’t report rape or sexual assault, survey claims (2012)
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/crime/9134799/Sexual-assault-survey-80-of-women-dont-report-rape-or-sexual-assault-survey-claims.html

Hickey: We still blame rape victims and we still don't really get why that's bad (2013 Campus newspaper)
http://pittnews.com/index.php/opinions/70696-hickey-we-still-blame-rape-victims-and-we-still-don-t-really-get-why-that-s-bad

[HiPointDem]

8. why would they be more discouraged today than in 1995? seems they'd be less discouraged

today with all the attention these issues have been given.

at any rate, there's no reason to believe reporting is *more* discouraged/impeded today than 15 years ago.

[justiceischeap]

14. And there's no reason to believe reporting is *less* discouraged/impeded today than 15 yrs ago

The point is, on college campuses young women aren't encouraged to report rapes as the Pitt article articulates. It's bad for attracting potential students. I've seen stories in many states where rape kits go untested for years even if the crime is reported. People on DU were going nuts when they learned Sarah Palin's Alaska wanted to charge rape victims to test their rape kits (and Alaska isn't the only state that has proposed that).

I've also seen stories on DU where all crimes are being underreported/not investigated by police departments to drive down their crime stats (or their designation is changed to something other than what the crime is to drive down specific stats). I'm pretty sure I read an article on DU fairly recently about, I think a Kansas city that changed their domestic abuse statutes so most D.A. cases aren't even reportable.

As another poster suggested, I don't want rape stats not to go down. I'd be happy to think they're down if I didn't think the books were being cooked in a lot of cases or if all rape victims felt comfortable coming forward. I'd be even happier if rape cases were more successfully prosecuted but that's difficult to do when all the defense has to do is blame the victim.

But to possibly suggest that we have less to worry about when it comes to rape because it appears as though the stats are down, is ridiculous. If you were a young woman and you saw all the victim blaming that goes on, would you report a rape? If you were a young woman who was slipped a date rape drug when drinking, would you even know if you'd been raped? And what about molestation victims who aren't even considered rape victims? And what are you to believe a survey that is about as accurate as a political poll or what women/men are saying when it comes to rapes being reported?

[HiPointDem]

16. there's no reason to believe that things have gotten worse re reporting -- on college campuses

or anywhere else.

the stats seem to say rape is down, & you appear to be saying the stats are wrong. i don't understand on what basis you're claiming that.

[seabeyond]

19. my son is going to university of new orleans next year. they have ONE reported rape for last year.

do you really think that is a number that anyone is going to buy into? $. if they accurately showed rape at universities then a parent would be more weary. they lie about the numbers. that simple. they down grade crime from rape, they do not file reports because of lack of info. they are finding all kinds of ways not to process the info.

cause we really know that there was more than ONE rape at the university last year. when reality is, 1 in 3 girls in college and military are sexually assaulted.

[redqueen]

33. *crickets*

[Threedifferentones]

38. The fear of coming forward and facing your attacker was also true in 1995.

It is obviously correct to doubt that these stats represent an accurate count of rapes in America. But there is no reason to believe that reporting rape is harder now than in 1995.

This thread is about the fact that the rate of rape has gone down precipitously.

You are talking about accurately counting every rape. As long as the chance of a victim reporting remains relatively constant, we can judge the rate without an exact count. In other words, lack of reporting applied to the initial count in 1995 as well, so it cannot explain the change.

Furthermore, because our culture is slowly changing there is reason to suspect a higher perscentage of vicitms will report today than in 1995. Of course as you point out we really can't know that for sure, but IMO this is doubly good news because the rate of rape is declining even as we slowly strip away the stigma around being raped and get more victims to report.

[KitSileya]

54. in 1997, 1 in 36 female college students were raped. Every school year.

According to this DoJ report, at least. If that number has declined 58% (which to God, I hope it has, and more, too,) that means that today, 1 out of every 75 female college students "experience a completed rape" - each school year.

I what the gender ratios at U of NO are, but I'm willing to bet they have more than 75 women getting their degrees there.

I really do hope the stats in the OP is correct - if they aren't, it's nothing new, as rape has always, always, always been under-reported. But I do hope that we've managed to get the numbers down, and now we need to work to get them even further down.

[seabeyond]

57. i do not know. i do not know that they have gone down, stayed the same or gone up.

i do know we could look at our nations and see an horrendous issue. and i do know that they lie about the numbers. and that is about the only place i can sit with this.

but, posters who whine they are tired of seeing rape stories on du bring these Ops to us and tell us women to be "happy" have an agenda. anf that, i will call out the bullshit on.

[Comrade Grumpy]

18. These are actual numbers. Do you have any actual numbers?

Or just strong opinions, so strong that you'll do backflips to avoid acknowedging the numbers?

[justiceischeap]

28. ...

One survey does not mean those numbers are accurate, no matter who is behind the survey and women in the military are underrepresented in the survey (I read the methodology report, did you?)




References
Justice Department, National Crime Victimization Survey: 2006-2010
FBI, Uniform Crime Reports: 2006-2010
National Center for Policy Analysis, Crime and Punishment in America, 1999
Department of Justice, Felony Defendents in Large Urban Counties: average of 2002-2006
Department of Justice, Felony Defendents in Large Urban Counties: average of 2002-2006
http://www.rainn.org/get-information/statistics/reporting-rates

The same organization says the following about unreported rapes from 2006-2010 http://bjs.gov/index.cfm?ty=pbdetail&iid=4393:

From 1994 to 2010, the percentage of serious violent crime—rape or sexual assault, robbery, or aggravated assault—that was not reported to police declined from 50% to 42%.
From 2006 to 2010, the highest percentages of unreported crime were among household theft (67%) and rape or sexual assault (65%) victimizations, while the lowest percentage was among motor vehicle theft (17%) victimizations.
From 2006 to 2010, a greater percentage of victimizations perpetrated by someone the victim knew well (62%) went unreported to police, compared to victimizations committed by a stranger (51%).

Talk to any person who works with sexual assault/rape victims and you'll learn just how dire the problem is and how the statistics don't give an accurate representation of the facts.

[redqueen]

34. *more crickets*

[Threedifferentones]

42. All of that was also true in 1995.

If rape victims faced the same obstacles to pursuing justice at the start of the period and the end, then they do not explain the drop. If military members were under repped in all of the years, then that does not explain the drop. All it does is point out that we do not have an exact count of rapes.

Do we need an exact count in order to get a rough idea of the rate? No. Stats can still be useful when based upon estimates. In this case, all the inaccuracies can be assumed to be present roughly equally in all years, so a precipitous drop in the rate can really only be explained by a drop in actual rapes.

Pointing out that most rapists walk free does not disprove the fact that rapes are declining.

Now, here is the really important question: when someone attempts to use irrelevant evidence to disprove what appear to be solid stats, is it likely they have an agenda of their own? .

Why would anyone other than a rapist WISH to believe that rape is not declining?

Chirp, chirp?

[seabeyond]

43. wrong. i am not going to go hunting for link, but i read not long ago, they decided the questions

asked, how they asked, and when they asked was part of the problem they were having with the study and when asked in a different manner, got a different answer.

the reality of it today is, maybe it has dropped. maybe it has stayed constant. maybe it has increased. but, what i do see is men that make comments like they are tiiiiiired of all the rape threads, starts an OP of see, rapes down 58% wimmins, no more need for discussion, there is no problem.

first, it was the men using FBI statistics. i spent days researching and finding where the problem was with the numbers because it makes NO logical sense. and sure enough, there were a lot of factors why the number was amazingly dropping. and the reasons are more than has even been discussed here.

now it is this one. maybe in time i will do further research to understand why these numbers are bogus. i have some info. but not a clear picture.

reality is.... i know it has not dropped 58% or 85% depending on what man is throwing out the numbers. i do not know what the true numbers are. nor do you. nor the OP.

[Threedifferentones]

45. Once again, as long as the flaws in the questions are consistent, the drop is real.

Flaws should skew the numbers about the same in every year, and so a big change in numbers represents a real change.

How about you respond to that single clear sentence with one of your own?

Remember,it does not matter if you show the drop is not literally exactly 58%. We all know that. Instead, try defending your position that this survey's methodology is so flawed that its overall conclusion should be discounted out of hand.



I pointed out the aim of the survey is not to produce "an exact count."

And then you point out to me that I will "never know the true numbers."




Wow, thanks for your insight.

[seabeyond]

47. as i said, they found how and when they asked the question, gave different answers. so even though

the questions may be consistent, they are not getting consistent answers. t hat is just one of the flaws i have seen recently. when we continually move the goal post, it takes time to do the research. and for that period of time, before reality presents itself, we go around saying, see see. without full knowledge and information.

[Threedifferentones]

61. Ya, a lot of us do go around saying "see, see" without knowing what we are talking about.

And a lot of us never really learned to punctuate, and so are stuck writing in a stream-of-consciousness style that reads more like a work of art and less like clear prose with a logical point.

And sometimes these two groups overlap, so that a person's posts are not only opaque and difficult to read, but ultimately mistaken in some of their conclusions.

Personally, I can think critically enough to see that two things which at first appear contradictory and mutually exclusive are in fact both true.

There are horrible examples of our old patriarchal system in the news every day. Anyone who googles Steubenville can see that plenty of males AND females are willing to ignore rape victims. Plenty of fucked up PEOPLE are ready to blame the victim and call her a slut.

But, this has been true for thousands of years, and the idea that no progress has been made in recognizing and changing these attitudes is ridiculous. It seems certain that some of the Anonymous people who first brought that case to light are male. Will you give them any credit for pursuing justice? I think they deserve big cudos for thwarting the Prosecuting Attorney's attempt to hush up the accusations against HER son.

It seems likely to me that as these attitudes are exposed as wrong, harmful and basically evil, we will see a decline in rape. Maybe that is just wishful thinking on my part, but will you really blame me if it turns out I was just wanted to believe rape is in decline?

What if it turns out these numbers are basically accurate? Then it will seem that you were engaged in the wishful thinking. You wanted to believe that rape is a bad as ever in America. Yikes.

Framing the study in the OP as some men's attempt to minimize the problem of rape is untrue. Because of that it is unhelpful and obviously inflammatory. Will this fact ever make it through your stream?

[bettyellen]

25. the top brass at NYPD has been discouraging officers from reporting violent crime as such....

assault, rape and robbery being the ones in particular.
Bloomberg has pushed them to show an increase "in quality of life in NYC" and every pct commander was pressured into lowering their stats. My brother (A Sgt) admits they are out there stressing how pointless it is to report if they don't have the perp in their crosshairs already.
I have seen reports other big cities have been doing the same.

[HiPointDem]

35. i haven't and there's no reason to think it happens anymore now than in the past.

[bettyellen]

53. well in NYC theres been this:

http://www.nydailynews.com/topics/Adrian%20Schoolcraft

Can't remember what other major cities I saw stuff on. But this is the new normal in some cities.
Lot's of power brokers out there trying to manage our perceptions of hoe fucking great their cities are. Bloomberg sat on the NYPD the fucking second he got into office. I'd be surprised if others weren't following suit.

There's more better coverage in the Village Voice on that NY report- I just posted the News because it's so MOR.

[HiPointDem]

56. No reason to think underreporting happens any more than it did in the past. There has always

been pressure to juke the stats.

There is, however, reason to think there is *more* reporting than in the past, as it's no longer generally shameful to have been raped.

[Comrade Grumpy]

10. This study includes both reported and unreported rapes.

"Data are from the National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS), which collects information on nonfatal crimes, reported and not reported to the police."

[dsc]

12. except this seems to be a survey of people

not of police departments.

[cthulu2016]

13. Do you believe rape is less reported today than previously?

And if so, would you believe that if it were not necessary to reach a conclusion you desire?

Also, do you ever examine your moral calibration to determine why you want there to be more rapes?

[justiceischeap]

15. I don't think there is much change in the average of rapes being reported

there are still women who are raped that think because they dated the guy, they won't be believed. There are still men who are raped who don't report it at all because it's shameful to be a man and have been raped.

I have nothing wrong with my moral calibration as you call it, and I certainly don't want there to be more rapes. Alas, I'm not stupid or turning a blind eye to the fact that some police officers don't encourage women to report rapes (and then those women don't report the rapes), that some colleges discourage young women from reporting rapes (look at the Penn State cover-up), that molestation victims (of which I'm one) aren't considered rape victims or that only last year anal and oral penetration were finally deemed rape (prior to last year, when a person was anally or orally raped, it wasn't called rape).

[seabeyond]

17. money is tied into the number the police volunteerly give to FBI. forces are downgrading rape

to other crimes or merely not filling out reports and processing them. hundred of thousands of rape kits sit on a shelves and all those reports have not been processed. there are other issues with the number. i have explained so many times.

if rape has dropped 60% and we are at 1 in 3 girls raped in college and military, 1 in 4-6% across the nation, what was the percentage of rape prior to the 60% drop. makes no sense.

when we get reasonable numbers, then we can talk.

but, i am tired of men that hold these reports up (another from MRA suggesting 80something% or more drop). and we are all suppose to be excited as we watch police force across the nation playing with the numbers to receive more $.

[Comrade Grumpy]

21. This is from victimization surveys, not police departments.

Bureau of Justice Statistics says the annual victimization rate declined "from 5.0 victimizations per 1,000 females age 12 or older to 2.1 per 1,000."

Where are you coming up with these "1 in 3 girls raped in college and military" numbers? The BJS numbers suggest a more accurate figure is 1 in 500 (per year).

I'm sorry you find this tiresome. Maybe you should talk to the Bureau of Justice Statistics.

[KitSileya]

55. I posted upthread 1 in every 36 women college students in 1997 were raped.

I also posted the link.

That meant that between 1/4 and 1/5 of all female college students were raped or attempted raped during their college career. With a 58% drop (a little more than halving the numbers,) that would make for 1 in 10 - much more than 1 in 500 that you post. For women in the military, it seems, based on recent media reports, to also be quite a lot higher than what you say.

[seabeyond]

20. here are a couple threads where we actually discuss the issue of manipulating the numbers instead of

just being happy rape seldom happens today when all evidence points elsewhere. using a little logic.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/125516052

http://www.democraticunderground.com/125516102

[Comrade Grumpy]

22. You ought to actually read the BJS report. You'll find stuff in there that suits you.

Like there are still 270,000 rapes a year, and the percentage of convictions seems to be declining.

[seabeyond]

24. you want to know why more people are not cheering. common sense tell us otherwise. fact tells us

otherwise. the mere way our society handles and deals with rape tells us otherwise for many reasons that i wont bother going into here. because the reality, i doubt you have any interest at all. seeing how you totally ignored the links i posted and the info i have given about this issues.

agenda. just as the numbers are an agenda. to dismiss rape today.

women, be HAPPY.... cause really, you are whiney about nothing.

now, i am done with this thread, because it is not about an open discussion, but a sell.

[Comrade Grumpy]

29. "Facts tell us otherwise." You're blatantly ignoring the facts, because you don't like what they say

Worse than that, you're getting all pissed off at what should be at least relatively good news because it doesn't fit your twisted perception of the world.

This report says that rape remains a serious problem. Just not as bad as it was a few years ago, much as is the case with many other types of crime.

[Comrade Grumpy]

30. I looked at your links.

The first one, about the cops in Detroit letting the rape kits pile up, is irrelevant. The BJS statistics are based on victimization surveys, not police reports or convictions.

The second one, about possible biases in the numbers, is more interesting. Perhaps there are biases that lead to underreporting, but the piece's author doesn't really show that, but merely asserts it.

But even if we accept the notion that the rape numbers from the victimization surveys are low-balled, and that's a big if, since BJS is using data from the same survey over consecutive years, it seems like the reported decline would still be valid. You should ask yourself why you have such a problem with that.

[ismnotwasm]

36. I have this one filed under 'S' Sea..

Openly admits to posting flame bait and therefore is not interested in discussion. The BJS stats have been discussed ad nauseum.

I'm trashing this thread.

[temporary311]

23. Most violent crimes have been trending downwards for years now.

Dont see why rape would be any different.

[Dash87]

27. Good news if true, but I wonder if rape reporting has to do with this.

I hope it is actually a decline in rapes, and not just a decline in numbers because of other reasons.

[A Little Weird]

31. Problems with their numbers

From what I understand, they significantly changed the way they collected data around 2000-2001. So that's why the numbers collected from the 90s and prior are so far out of line with the numbers since then. If you look at the years since they changed methodology, the rates have stayed fairly steady with some years higher and some lower. But they do show a slight negative trend so that's good. It's just nowhere near the 58% reduction that this report would have us believe.

I am hopeful that the recent cases in the popular media will shed some light on rape and make victims feel more comfortable coming forward.

[Comrade Grumpy]

32. Got a link for that? Because I looked at the study's methodology...

http://bjs.gov/content/pub/pdf/ncvs_methodology.pdf

...and I don't see that. I see a 1997 change in racial coding that was implemented in 2003. And I think the BJS statisticians would be aware of any such changes in data collection and account for them. But maybe I'm wrong. Show me.

[A Little Weird]

37. No

I'm afraid I don't. It was a few weeks ago when I came across the study. I spent a lot of time reading about it then but I didn't keep links or anything since it was just for my own curiosity.

I don't blame you for not taking my word for it - I am just as skeptical when someone doesn't post a link to back up their assertions. If you think it takes away from your thread, I can delete the post - just let me know.

[LanternWaste]

40. I imagine some people are indeed comforted that they are drowning in only 20 feet of water...

I imagine some people are indeed comforted that they are drowning in only 20 feet of water rather than 33 feet.

[Honeycombe8]

41. Men raping women is static. It doesn't change, IMO.

So if the stats change, that's because of other factors besides men trying to rape females. Here are some reasons stats change:

1. Females are living more defensively...it's not as easy to catch and rape and murder them;
2. More females are armed than a couple of decades ago;
3. Law enforcement reacts to these reports more aggressively these days, resulting in it being harder for men to have access and not get caught.

But since the beginning of time, men have raped women, for all sorts of reasons. That will never change. But the environment, access, and getting caught and prosecuted, and what women do about it themselves - these things change.

[99Forever]

44. Okay, you've made me curious enough to ask.

If we accept this premise (your words, no one elses):

"Men raping women is static. It doesn't change, IMO."

What is the point of trying to stop it from happening by "talking" to us horrible men about it? Seems (according to you) a complete exercise in futility. Could you please explain?

[Honeycombe8]

48. Please provide a link where I tried to stop "you horrible men" from raping......I'm waiting.

Get back to me, when you know what you're talking about, instead of a snarky remark.

[99Forever]

52. I wasn't being snarky...

.. i was asking you an honest question. If you want to get all butthurt over it, fine, enjoy your victimhood. Means jackshit to me.

[lumberjack_jeff]

50. You can't just lob this turd into the pool and not explain it.

What do you mean by "Men raping women is static. It doesn't change"?

Education efforts directed toward men are entirely pointless if this were true.

[boston bean]

46. The BJS purposefully excludes series victimization

data from it's findings.

There are a multitude of reasons for this, but it also skews the actual instances of certain types of crime, of which rape is one and domestic battery is another. For both men and women.

This data is collected in the NCVS. Overtime there has been a decrease in series victimization that has been shown, but not even close to 58%.

I believe they stopped using this data around 1995.

[lumberjack_jeff]

49. Here's a recent thread about the issue.

The data should be comforting. The fact that is viewed as so threatening is, itself, a good reason to talk about it.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1002&pid=2485838



It should be noted that the above graphic excludes rape within institutions. Arguably we're simply shifting crime to prisons.
http://nplusonemag.com/raise-the-crime-rate

[mythology]

58. That's certainly good news

although getting the number even lower would be better of course.

[mercuryblues]

59. Maybe

the stats have gone down, maybe not.

What I do know is that anyone who uses the lower stats as a means to downgrade the problem of RAPE is a disgusting pig. Anyone who thinks by saying see rape is not as bad as it used to be, so shut the hell up about it needs to think about what they are trying to accomplish and who's back they are trying to accomplish it on.

[Iggo]

60. Oh. Well, then.

Everything's okay. Glad that's cleared up.