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FrodosPet

(5,169 posts)
Tue Apr 9, 2013, 11:16 PM Apr 2013

Does Kim Jong Un WANT North Korea to be defeated militarily?

Perhaps he believes he is saving North Korea by destroying the DPRK military, and since he cannot do it himself, he is hoping the U.S. and South Korea does it?

Long shot, highly unlikely, but it makes some twisted sense.

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Does Kim Jong Un WANT North Korea to be defeated militarily? (Original Post) FrodosPet Apr 2013 OP
No--it turns out one of our diplomats talked with NK on the sly in March, and TwilightGardener Apr 2013 #1
I think he's trying to save his own ass. backscatter712 Apr 2013 #2
Maybe if we sent him season tickets to basketball games, we might be able to end this Baitball Blogger Apr 2013 #3
I believe that he thinks he can win. GreenStormCloud Apr 2013 #4

TwilightGardener

(46,416 posts)
1. No--it turns out one of our diplomats talked with NK on the sly in March, and
Tue Apr 9, 2013, 11:23 PM
Apr 2013

didn't offer them anything, so it went nowhere--and we are showing no signs of giving anything now, and the sanctions are hurting. I think they're putting up an extreme effort to get some sort of concession. I could be wrong and they are determined to start a war in a splashy way, but I hope not.

backscatter712

(26,355 posts)
2. I think he's trying to save his own ass.
Tue Apr 9, 2013, 11:27 PM
Apr 2013

IIRC, the military's itching to pull a coup on Kim, so he's keeping them occupied by saber-rattling and ordering the military to prepare for war.

So for the next few days, or weeks, he's got them occupied in a confrontation with the US and S. Korea, but this kind of standoff can't last. It could get very ugly very quickly. Kim could keep escalating to cover his own but until hostilities erupt, in which case N. Korea gets flattened, we have an extremely ugly little war, the NK military is utterly wiped out and Kim's likely dead or in exile. Another alternative is that the NK military could decide it doesn't feel like suicide by USA, so they'll turn on Kim.

China or the US or Japan or S. Korea could even accelerate the process by making a few of the NK generals a Sicilian-style offer they can't refuse ("Whack Kim, deescalate the conflict, and open N. Korea for business, and we'll let you take charge and make you rich beyond your wildest dreams. Refuse us and we'll erase you!&quot

Kim may even believe he can survive a war with the USA, Saddam Hussein style (he survived the 1st Gulf War, did he not!) He likely doesn't care if the nation blows up around him, and in fact, may appreciate the US doing him a favor by blowing up "his" military that wants to make a coup against him. He'll be the dictator of a destroyed, flattened, desperate, miserable nation, and that's fine with him - he'll be in charge, he'll personally have enough wealth that he won't have to actually experience the suffering of his people. That's how his dad and grand-dad stayed in power.

GreenStormCloud

(12,072 posts)
4. I believe that he thinks he can win.
Tue Apr 9, 2013, 11:32 PM
Apr 2013

It is well-known that the U.S. doesn't easily tolerate a lot of casualties, unless we are really, really angry. Inh 1941 Japan based their strategy on that. The were well aware that they could not hope to win a long war with the U.S. due to our industrial capacity. But they hoped that by a quick string of early victories they could push us into a place from which we would be willing to negotiate a peace, rather than fight a long war.

Kim may be thinking that if he destroys Seoul and captures a lot of ground quickly that we will be willing to leave SK, rather than fight. The danger to him is that if he gets us really pissed off, we won't be happy until our forces are at the Yalu. Americans think in terms of total war, and don't really understand wars with limited objectives.

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