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Nuclear Unicorn

(19,497 posts)
Tue Apr 9, 2013, 11:35 AM Apr 2013

The Chained CPI offer is a win-win-win scenario

for the GOP.

I think the potential detriment to seniors and others is pretty well discussed but I want to offer my take -- for whatever that might be worth -- on why even offering this is a bad idea for President Obama.

So the President offers to touch the third rail of American politics. One of two things will happen: the GOP will accept the offer or they won't. That seems sort of "well-duh-ish" but please bear with me.

If they accept they get what they want -- twice. First, they get a chained CPI. Second, they got a Democrat to touch the rail. That means in the future they get to say, "Yes, well, Obama did it and..." Not only does that mute future criticisms of them but it shows blocs that have traditionally voted Democratic for purposes of protecting SS no longer have a safe haven. The Democratic party can no longer boast about being the party that never touched SS except to protect it because now a chained CPI has to portrayed as protection lest President Obama be jettisoned and THAT ain't gonna happen.

If the GOP rejects the chained CPI then THEY get to claim the mantle of being the party that protected seniors and the disabled. Will that cost the Democratic party one of its core constituencies? No, but it might win the GOP enough votes and enough positive press to make a difference in key battles. We've seen more than enough critical elections turn on a few hundred votes.

If the president rescinds the offer the hue and cry will be he's just a crass gamesman who cannot be trusted to negotiate in good faith. That ends-up undercutting the well-deserved complaints against GOP obstructionism.

There are many opening bids one might use as an ante but putting your Rolex on the table when the other guy put out $5 worth of chips seems a risky play with no discernible benefit. You have plenty to lose and the other guy hasn't put up enough to make the potential loss worth your risk. Even if you're sitting on 4 aces the other guy will never bid enough to justify that sort of leverage and considering how much the audience is screaming this is a stupid play with the cards he has in his hands I can't see why the GOP wouldn't call his bluff -- which is the worst case scenario.

Frankly, I don't understand it.

I know passions are pretty high but if anyone wants to offer insights WITHOUT drowning the President in a sea of vitriol I'm open to discussion. He is still our president.

84 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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The Chained CPI offer is a win-win-win scenario (Original Post) Nuclear Unicorn Apr 2013 OP
Very astute analysis Armstead Apr 2013 #1
Agree totally.....the single dumbest move I have ever seen a smart man make. yourout Apr 2013 #2
I'm tired of quarreling over whether Obama is a schmuck or not PDittie Apr 2013 #3
I don't think he's a schmuck in the least Nuclear Unicorn Apr 2013 #8
Anything President Clinton and President Hillary Clinton do is 100% okay with me graham4anything Apr 2013 #12
A betrayal is a betrayal is a betrayal lark Apr 2013 #33
I don't think anyone could have summed up why this country is screwed up any better than this. n/t hughee99 Apr 2013 #41
Lindsey Graham or Bob Graham?? kentuck Apr 2013 #47
Haha! City Lights Apr 2013 #52
Hill Fuddnik Apr 2013 #58
MORE DRONE ATTACKS! DrDan Apr 2013 #76
Hillary's silence. hay rick Apr 2013 #37
Very good point PDittie Apr 2013 #71
If it's like her position on equal marriage customerserviceguy Apr 2013 #77
On the plus side, if he recinds the offer then a handful of DUers will get to gloat! progressoid Apr 2013 #4
No one can gloat on this until November 2014 Jim Lane Apr 2013 #68
That's not what it would mean to me eridani Apr 2013 #78
+ 1 googleplex dawg Apr 2013 #5
it is not a reasonable compromise magical thyme Apr 2013 #7
It may seem reasonable if one is surrounded by Third Way/DLC/"centrists" and Wall Streeters JHB Apr 2013 #30
yes, it is reasonable if your intent is to get a foot in the door magical thyme Apr 2013 #84
It is not a reasonable compromise. The SSA is one of the best run agencies in the world, 1% overhead byeya Apr 2013 #31
I think the main flaw in your argument is the Democrats won't allow this to pass. Bandit Apr 2013 #6
If I put on my "Nefarious Evil Doer" hat Nuclear Unicorn Apr 2013 #14
The GOP can't take the deal because ... JoePhilly Apr 2013 #9
I think the Koch/Peterson puppet masters are pulling Obama's strings. xtraxritical Apr 2013 #55
Someone SHOULD be willing to budge. Flying Squirrel Apr 2013 #10
Maybe a dousing rhetorical vitriol would help? FredStembottom Apr 2013 #11
I dunno. I see the Passion-Fest that has ensued and I see visions of Nuclear Unicorn Apr 2013 #26
You left out one of the options Larrylarry Apr 2013 #13
That is not left out of the OP. Read it again. They will do what Michelle Bachmann has done, sabrina 1 Apr 2013 #16
Impossible Larrylarry Apr 2013 #23
You haven't seen Michelle Bachmann's statement about how she will protect SS from the evil Dems then sabrina 1 Apr 2013 #27
Michelle Bachman is a nobody Larrylarry Apr 2013 #40
Except what did her in wasn't her claims about MediCare it was her other lunacy Nuclear Unicorn Apr 2013 #45
Are you seriously asking when was the last time she did damage to the Dems? She WON sabrina 1 Apr 2013 #53
I spoke to some elderly Republicans during the campaign. JDPriestly Apr 2013 #62
You just claimed Larrylarry Apr 2013 #75
I believe that "Obama's budget" is pretty close to a done deal. JDPriestly Apr 2013 #82
This Obama fiasco practically gives the Republicans a majority in the House JDPriestly Apr 2013 #61
3 counterpoints Nuclear Unicorn Apr 2013 #22
You said, excellently, what everyone with a brain cell left functioning, has been saying since this sabrina 1 Apr 2013 #15
Actually, it seems there is a way this could work in favor of liberals. TimberValley Apr 2013 #17
IF Obama was bluffing demwing Apr 2013 #18
It's not a bluff. Obama is what he is. duffyduff Apr 2013 #21
I see the OP's point, and especially in light of the Bachmann thing ... Benton D Struckcheon Apr 2013 #25
right you are demwing Apr 2013 #35
No problemo n/t Benton D Struckcheon Apr 2013 #50
After this back stab ...I am wondering just what hiden nightmares may be coming with ACA. L0oniX Apr 2013 #19
Of course it is. Whenever the GOP appears to be on life support, duffyduff Apr 2013 #20
I gotta ask this. grasswire Apr 2013 #24
wow. That's --- I can't --- How do you --- Nuclear Unicorn Apr 2013 #29
I did not. grasswire Apr 2013 #70
But did you ever think that in the wake of the Bush mess JDPriestly Apr 2013 #65
Obama could be for oxygen Life Long Dem Apr 2013 #28
Except the GOP is offering suffocation and the President seems to be fluffing the pillow. Nuclear Unicorn Apr 2013 #32
Your Analysis Nailed The Flawed Strategy cantbeserious Apr 2013 #34
Problem ProSense Apr 2013 #36
I answered this in #22, if i may impose on you. Nuclear Unicorn Apr 2013 #43
From ProSense Apr 2013 #51
My Dog! These "morans" are trying to tell us... VPStoltz Apr 2013 #38
What the so called low information voter is going to "learn" from all this tularetom Apr 2013 #39
This is excellent and needed to be said. JDPriestly Apr 2013 #66
Our daughter will be 50 years old this November tularetom Apr 2013 #69
+1 KoKo Apr 2013 #81
Don't expect a coherent rebuttal. Marr Apr 2013 #42
It's his last term. He has nothing to lose and everything to gain Jackpine Radical Apr 2013 #44
He also has nothing to gain by pushing for gun control or gay rights or climate change. randome Apr 2013 #46
The rich don't give a shit about gay rights or gun control. Jackpine Radical Apr 2013 #49
Keystone remains to be seen but, yes, it worries me. randome Apr 2013 #54
Well he's not been heard 'pushing for gay rights' since a few days before he had to Bluenorthwest Apr 2013 #73
Obama is not a stupid man. randome Apr 2013 #48
Our strategy of trying to trick the Republicans into embracing cuts Babel_17 Apr 2013 #56
No. He is Wall Street's president. JDPriestly Apr 2013 #57
+1 forestpath Apr 2013 #60
Well, the Republicans did already demand it, they just don't negotiate in good faith; Babel_17 Apr 2013 #64
And One Wonders Why He Has So Many Cheerleaders - Boggles The Mind cantbeserious Apr 2013 #72
Here's my hope. That this begins an honest and widespread discussion on the budget. SleeplessinSoCal Apr 2013 #59
I guess the hope is that Repuplicans will have to embrace tax cuts or, ... Babel_17 Apr 2013 #63
Thanks, Unicorn, for unraveling the faulty Machiavellian excuse-making politics. Eleanors38 Apr 2013 #67
Bad morals = bad governance = bad politics Doctor_J Apr 2013 #74
Yes. LWolf Apr 2013 #79
Actually, the Republicans get nothing out of chained CPI. bornskeptic Apr 2013 #80
Just suggesting the Chained CPI be enacted has caused much damage. nt MoonRiver Apr 2013 #83

PDittie

(8,322 posts)
3. I'm tired of quarreling over whether Obama is a schmuck or not
Tue Apr 9, 2013, 11:40 AM
Apr 2013

No one here is likely to be persuaded from their position. Perhaps we could turn the page and get Hillary Clinton on the record as to whether she supports or opposes chained CPI. A cursory Google did not clarify (for me) her position.

Nuclear Unicorn

(19,497 posts)
8. I don't think he's a schmuck in the least
Tue Apr 9, 2013, 11:58 AM
Apr 2013

Granted, he's done things I question but I suppose that's the office he occupies more than his qualities as a person.

I'll admit I *want* to believe there is yet a brilliant gambit yet to be made, that there is some bid he can coax from the GOP to make this play in his favor without giving them the prize they themselves have been unable to win thus far. But I'll be honest: I lack the imagination to see it and I don't think imagination is the thing to be running on in moments such as this.

 

graham4anything

(11,464 posts)
12. Anything President Clinton and President Hillary Clinton do is 100% okay with me
Tue Apr 9, 2013, 12:03 PM
Apr 2013

the law of average states 99 out of 100 times I will come out ahead

Maybe it's time for the silent majority (the 99% of all Democratic voters and 100% of the core Barack Obama fans) to inundate the White House switchboard to say

We firmly support and have President Obama's back 100% of the time, and back whatever it is President Obama does.


Open your windows and YELL
WE ARE GLAD AS HEAVEN PRESIDENT OBAMA YOU ARE PRESIDENT IN THIS AGE AND TIME

lark

(23,067 posts)
33. A betrayal is a betrayal is a betrayal
Tue Apr 9, 2013, 12:52 PM
Apr 2013

No amount of love will change the fact that this appears to be a major betrayal of 99% of Americans. There's no way to spin this as a good thing, every alternative is bad for the Democratic party and for workers. It's just made winning in 2014 even more difficult than it was previously.

hay rick

(7,591 posts)
37. Hillary's silence.
Tue Apr 9, 2013, 01:09 PM
Apr 2013

If she is thinking about running in 2016 she has to be aware that chained cpi is a huge polarizing issue. Endorsing it will galvanize the progressive wing of the party into looking for and supporting primary challengers. Coming out against it will make it harder for her to raise funds. In this avoidance-avoidance situation, silence is the default option.

Unfortunately for Hillary, given her background and her political identification with her husband and Barack Obama, her silence will be presumed to be consent. She can run, but she can't hide.

PDittie

(8,322 posts)
71. Very good point
Tue Apr 9, 2013, 05:29 PM
Apr 2013

The sooner we can get her on the record, the better. Same with Biden (and everyone else who intends to contend for the '16 nomination).

progressoid

(49,952 posts)
4. On the plus side, if he recinds the offer then a handful of DUers will get to gloat!
Tue Apr 9, 2013, 11:48 AM
Apr 2013

"told you he was the most liberalest president ever!!"



 

Jim Lane

(11,175 posts)
68. No one can gloat on this until November 2014
Tue Apr 9, 2013, 03:47 PM
Apr 2013

Whether or not this ever becomes law, and whether or not he rescinds the offer, Republican candidates in 2014 will point to a Democratic President's willingness to cut Social Security.

I completely agree with Nuclear Unicorn in #14.

dawg

(10,621 posts)
5. + 1 googleplex
Tue Apr 9, 2013, 11:50 AM
Apr 2013

I think the President proposed this because he thinks it would be a reasonable compromise, and that someone needs to show a willingness to budge if a deal is ever going to be made.

I disagree with him. The right has gotten much of what it wanted in the way of tax cuts to upper income folks since 2000. I don't see any sense at all in talking about benefit cuts until every single Bush tax cut has been reversed. Otherwise, we are cutting benefits, partly in order to finance the continuation of those tax cuts.

Reverse all the Bush tax cuts, wind down the wars, and come up with an adequate funding mechanism for Medicare Part D. Then, if we are still running large deficits, we can start negotiating about ways of remedying that.

But until then, any benefit cuts would just be Robin Hood in reverse.

 

magical thyme

(14,881 posts)
7. it is not a reasonable compromise
Tue Apr 9, 2013, 11:58 AM
Apr 2013

and I cannot imagine any reasonable person of some intelligence thinking that it is a reasonable compromise.

There is absolutely no reasonable explanation for a democratic president offering to balance the budget on the backs of seniors. Social security did not create the deficit. Seniors are the most vulnerable. Damaging social security will destroy all trust in the social security system for those paying in.

He isn't just playing a very dangerous game of chicken. Once he offered social security up this time around, he made his 1% agenda clear.

JHB

(37,157 posts)
30. It may seem reasonable if one is surrounded by Third Way/DLC/"centrists" and Wall Streeters
Tue Apr 9, 2013, 12:39 PM
Apr 2013

They've been pushing for these changes for going on two decades now.

From January 1997:

As Clinton's second term begins, both New Democrats and populists are maneuvering furiously to influence the White House and shape future party strategies. The DLC is using its close personal ties to Clinton, Gore, Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin, and other White House staffers to push proposals for "reinventing government," such as privatizing Social Security and Medicare, and reforming education.

New Democrats are delighted by the commanding Clinton-Gore victory in November -- but at the same time they can hardly hide their glee that the AFL-CIO's campaign fell short of putting the Democrats back in charge of the House of Representatives. They fear and dislike "big labor," of course. But another factor may also be at work. The DLC has always cared most about presidential politics, while its congressional ties have been primarily to Southern Democrats -- and these are a fast-disappearing breed. Many Southern DLC politicians are now former members of Congress, defeated or replaced by Republicans. Not incidentally, perhaps, DLC leaders are suddenly talking about "bipartisan" solutions, above and beyond mere "party politics."

***

New Democrats are now calling for "above it all" presidential leadership focused on bipartisan coalitions in Congress. After criticizing Clinton for liberal overreaching with his failed health security plan in 1993-94, the DLC now wants the president to make top-down proposals that are just as sweeping -- but this time moving in the opposite direction, away from a strong federal government role in promoting family security.

DLC President Al From is urging Clinton to undertake a "fundamental restructuring [of] our biggest systems for delivering public benefits -- Medicare, Social Security, and public education, for openers." Similarly, Will Marshall of the Progressive Policy Institute (PPI), the DLC's think tank, argues for moving Medicare and Medicaid "into the new marketplace."
http://www.motherjones.com/politics/1997/01/democrats-crossroads

Sound familiar?
 

magical thyme

(14,881 posts)
84. yes, it is reasonable if your intent is to get a foot in the door
Wed Apr 10, 2013, 12:01 PM
Apr 2013

to destroy social security, leave the elderly homeless and starving, and sucker the younger generations into believing in 401Ks and IRAs in order to further enrich the 1% over the next few quarters.

Doubtless the billionaires are looking around and thinking if the asshole next door is a billionaire, I should be a trillionaire.

 

byeya

(2,842 posts)
31. It is not a reasonable compromise. The SSA is one of the best run agencies in the world, 1% overhead
Tue Apr 9, 2013, 12:49 PM
Apr 2013

and a cornerstone of the Democratic Party.
As has been hammered home here and by unbiased economists, SSA has nothing whatever to do with the deficit.

The argument should not be How to cut the deficit; the argument should be Should the deficit be cut when there is so much left to do to recover from the W Bush years.

Bandit

(21,475 posts)
6. I think the main flaw in your argument is the Democrats won't allow this to pass.
Tue Apr 9, 2013, 11:56 AM
Apr 2013

It will be blocked by Democrats as well as Republicans. Republicans will block the budget because of tax loopholes being eliminated and Democrats will block it to protect Social Security and Medicare...This budget is dead on arrival...

Nuclear Unicorn

(19,497 posts)
14. If I put on my "Nefarious Evil Doer" hat
Tue Apr 9, 2013, 12:05 PM
Apr 2013

I'd still get to claim the GOP saved SS by rejecting an assault on senior benefits so repugnant an offer even the President's own party rejected him as too extremist.

Tell me you won't hear that on Fox & Friends some morning.

I was also thinking, while making a reply to another poster up-thread, what a bitter betrayal this must be to the AARP that lobbied to get the PPACA passed. I'm a tad too young to be on their mailing list, I wonder if they've weighed in on this as of yet.

JoePhilly

(27,787 posts)
9. The GOP can't take the deal because ...
Tue Apr 9, 2013, 11:58 AM
Apr 2013

A) The cuts are too small. Accepting Obama's offer would require the GOP to state that offer as an acceptable reform to those programs. For the GOP, that's not the case. Its not nearly enough (for the GOP), and so accepting the deal would weaken their ability to claim the program needs further reform later.

B) Boehner can't accept any deal with more tax revenues. They'd force him out of the speaker role for even trying.

Other points ...

On the Dems boasting about "never touching SS" ... didn't the Dems helped raise the age from 65 to 67 in 1983? That cat is out of the bag already.

The GOP won't claim to be protecting SS when they reject the offer. They'll say chained CPI alone doesn't do enough to "save" SS. This is the same framing as when they claim privatization will "save" social security.

I keep seeing people refer to this as the "opening offer" or as you claim "opening bid". In reality, the budget debate has been going on, non-stop since Obama took office. Its the same basic financial fight repeating over and over, whether the focal point is debt ceiling, fiscal cliff, sequester, bush tax cuts, continuing resolutions, and so on. These are not separate events anymore. They are now all part of a larger, endless fight. That's the point of the endless obstruction.

As for the GOP calling Obama's bluff, and the view that Obama would look bad backing down. The premise leaves out a few things. To call Obama's bluff, Boehner not only has to verbally accept a deal in principle (which is all he can do initially), he then has to create a bill that reflects the agreement. And there is no way he can do that. The GOP House won't accept a bill that Obama would sign, and Obama won't sign the insane bill that the GOP would come up with ... basically, Boehner would again have to break the deal with specifics all laid out in the bill. Which he can't do.

 

Flying Squirrel

(3,041 posts)
10. Someone SHOULD be willing to budge.
Tue Apr 9, 2013, 11:59 AM
Apr 2013

That someone should NOT have been Obama. I weep to think the OP may be right about the lose-lose-lose scenario. Can anything good possibly come of this?

FredStembottom

(2,928 posts)
11. Maybe a dousing rhetorical vitriol would help?
Tue Apr 9, 2013, 12:01 PM
Apr 2013

The president seems quite isolated from our anger, opinions, name-calling and rhetoric. Maybe rank and file Democrats getting ugly might get through?

(I doubt it.......)

Nuclear Unicorn

(19,497 posts)
26. I dunno. I see the Passion-Fest that has ensued and I see visions of
Tue Apr 9, 2013, 12:34 PM
Apr 2013

Emperor Palpatine smiling his evil smile as he exhorts Anakin to give in to his feelings.

 

Larrylarry

(76 posts)
13. You left out one of the options
Tue Apr 9, 2013, 12:04 PM
Apr 2013

The GOP support the chain CPI cut but will never vote for the bill because it contains tax increases

This is the most likely scenario

sabrina 1

(62,325 posts)
16. That is not left out of the OP. Read it again. They will do what Michelle Bachmann has done,
Tue Apr 9, 2013, 12:09 PM
Apr 2013

attacked Democrats as the party who are out to destroy SS and claim that she will 'fight to preserve it and will not vote for any such bill'. Please read the OP again. This was predicted by people who are capable of thinking. Now the Republicans will be the ones who 'saved SS'. They sure won't say they didn't vote against tax increases. What would YOU do? They will do what Bachmann is doing as everyone expected, except of course, those too blind to see.

 

Larrylarry

(76 posts)
23. Impossible
Tue Apr 9, 2013, 12:23 PM
Apr 2013

The GOP is on record calling for entitlement cuts
to turn around and attack democrats for entitlement cuts would really expose them even further

I dare them to attack the president for chain CPI it simply won't happen

Chain CPI is on the table
are the Democrats taking any fire from the Republicans ?

sabrina 1

(62,325 posts)
27. You haven't seen Michelle Bachmann's statement about how she will protect SS from the evil Dems then
Tue Apr 9, 2013, 12:35 PM
Apr 2013

I take it? She 'will never vote for those cuts' she says. Of course some of us know she is lying, but a whole lot of people will not. This is why this 'chess' game we are told the president is playing was so, very dangerous and just plain wrong.

The only way it would have been impossible for her to take advantage of this would have been if a Democratic President had not presented her with the opportunity which she grabbed like a thirsty man in the desert. Someone doesn't understand the way politics works in this party. Whoever they are should be fired, removed from the party.

 

Larrylarry

(76 posts)
40. Michelle Bachman is a nobody
Tue Apr 9, 2013, 01:19 PM
Apr 2013

Her own party won't even listen to her, much less the rest of he nation

She can say what she wants , it only does damage to the GOP

We all see that her statements only do damage to the GOP , not the Dems

When was the last time Michelle did damage to the Dems ?

Nuclear Unicorn

(19,497 posts)
45. Except what did her in wasn't her claims about MediCare it was her other lunacy
Tue Apr 9, 2013, 01:40 PM
Apr 2013

What Sabrina was addressing was that it was used as a weapon in the campaign. In a Bachman v Obama match-up I expect the President to win but the President isn't running in 2014, but his party is and this proposal has every appearance of damaging his party.

sabrina 1

(62,325 posts)
53. Are you seriously asking when was the last time she did damage to the Dems? She WON
Tue Apr 9, 2013, 01:50 PM
Apr 2013

she beat them, she is in Congress and the Dem she ran against isn't. I call THAT doing damage to the Dems. Now maybe you think we can afford to keep losing seats in Congress to people like her, but the rest of us who tried to help her opponent win, don't agree at all.

JDPriestly

(57,936 posts)
62. I spoke to some elderly Republicans during the campaign.
Tue Apr 9, 2013, 02:48 PM
Apr 2013

They very much believed that Obama would cut Social Security.

And now, they know they were right. Obama wants to cut Social Security to pay for Bush's wars, for Bush's torture, for Bush's Guantanamo (and the remodeling going on down there), for Bush's tax cuts and for Bush's Homeland Security.

Way to go, Obama. (sarcasm)

JDPriestly

(57,936 posts)
82. I believe that "Obama's budget" is pretty close to a done deal.
Wed Apr 10, 2013, 10:59 AM
Apr 2013

It is being announced after weeks and months of negotiations.

Nobody is admitting it, and there will be changes, but I think it has probably been written and Obama or someone in his administration kind of leaked the bad news in the hopes we would all "get over it" before the worst of it passes.

JDPriestly

(57,936 posts)
61. This Obama fiasco practically gives the Republicans a majority in the House
Tue Apr 9, 2013, 02:45 PM
Apr 2013

in 2014. This is the stupidest mistake yet.

Nuclear Unicorn

(19,497 posts)
22. 3 counterpoints
Tue Apr 9, 2013, 12:23 PM
Apr 2013

First, a Democratic President offered to touch SS. Ergo, the subject is no longer taboo. The charge has gone out of the third rail and it may now be touched with impunity. That is far too much territory to concede with no discernible gain.

Second, it doesn't matter why they vote down his budget what matters is what they will say was their motive while standing in front of the cameras; which leads me to

Thirdly, the President's own party has to turn on him to salavage their constituencies so the GOP gets to say they protected seniors and the disabled from a president too extremist for his fellow Democrats.

As I noted up-thread, tell me you won't see that on Fox & Friends. As evidence I ask you to recall the election. We all know the GOP would gut MediCare if given half the chance but Romeny made great sport of bludgeoning the President with claims the PPACA had cut reimbursements to doctors providing MediCare services. Disingenuous? Yes. But when has that ever figured into politics? How many votes could that have cost and how many votes will it cost when we're dealing with a mid-term election rather than a presidential election?

sabrina 1

(62,325 posts)
15. You said, excellently, what everyone with a brain cell left functioning, has been saying since this
Tue Apr 9, 2013, 12:06 PM
Apr 2013

awful proposal first become public. Even the suggestion of offering up SS by a Democrat has already caused enormous damage. You laid out why perfectly. So whose idea was it? Imho, whoever suggested it should be removed from the Democratic Party..

 

TimberValley

(318 posts)
17. Actually, it seems there is a way this could work in favor of liberals.
Tue Apr 9, 2013, 12:13 PM
Apr 2013

It gets people stoked up and passionate about defending Social Security - over a bill that is most likely not going to pass anyway.


If it were likely to pass, that would be another issue, but it's not, so this gets people riled up and protective of Social Security.

 

demwing

(16,916 posts)
18. IF Obama was bluffing
Tue Apr 9, 2013, 12:15 PM
Apr 2013

Last edited Tue Apr 9, 2013, 01:06 PM - Edit history (1)

It was a ridiculous bluff.

You bluff for three reasons -

1) Short term gain: To try to win a hand when holding what you believe to be inferior cards.

2) Long term gain: To look past winning the hand, and to try to get your opponent to reveal something about their style of play

3) Strategic gain: you only want to up the ante in the pot, breaking the lesser players more quickly, and so eventually allowing you to concentrate on the 1 or 2 players against whom you have chosen to wage an end game.

So, does the President believe that protecting Social Security is a handful of inferior cards, does he not yet understand the nature of the game that the Republicans are playing, or is he trying to split his opponents into groups to divide and conquer?

If the #1, then WTF is he doing with a (D) next to his name? If #2, then WTF will it take for his eyes to be opened? If #3, who are the imagined "lesser players" at the table?

Of course, maybe Obama wasn't bluffing at all. Maybe he was hoping for a grand bargain, and didn't mind cutting bits of the safety net in order to get what he wanted.

Is that the kind of representation that we voted for?

Benton D Struckcheon

(2,347 posts)
25. I see the OP's point, and especially in light of the Bachmann thing ...
Tue Apr 9, 2013, 12:28 PM
Apr 2013

he has an excellent point.
However, reading over your post, I'm confused. I will quote what I'm confused about:

2) Long term gain: To look past winning the hand, and to try to get your opponent to reveal something about their style of play

...If #2, then WTF is he doing with a (D) next to his name?


I have no idea what your logic here is. Please explain.
 

duffyduff

(3,251 posts)
20. Of course it is. Whenever the GOP appears to be on life support,
Tue Apr 9, 2013, 12:20 PM
Apr 2013

one can just about count on people like Obama to revive them.

grasswire

(50,130 posts)
24. I gotta ask this.
Tue Apr 9, 2013, 12:26 PM
Apr 2013

I am not African American, so perhaps I am out of line asking this. But I ask it in the most honest and genuine frame of mind.

Is there something troubling about a president of color trying very hard to get old racist white men to like him and compromise with him?

He seems to operate from a mindset of weakness. This gives power to those white men.

I realize that if he came on strong and righteous that he would be labeled the angry black man and they would neutralize him like they did Jesse Jackson.

But Obama the community organizer *seems* to be weak, and that also works for Republicans.

Nuclear Unicorn

(19,497 posts)
29. wow. That's --- I can't --- How do you ---
Tue Apr 9, 2013, 12:38 PM
Apr 2013

Just fucking wow.

On edit -- I was so stunned by what you said I couldn't think of the words. Now I have.

You're accusing the President of the United States of putting on a minstrel show to curry favor. I'm floored.

JDPriestly

(57,936 posts)
65. But did you ever think that in the wake of the Bush mess
Tue Apr 9, 2013, 03:02 PM
Apr 2013

maybe people voted for President Obama because they wanted an angry black man?

Maybe that's what people wanted.

Maybe a lot of people, perhaps not consciously, identified strongly with the struggle of African-Americans after being treated so badly, so rudely, so dismissively, so disdainfully, so cruelly by George W. Bush and Richard Cheney.

Think about it. It is quite possible.

And when Obama bested Romney, verbally but very resoundingly beat and embarrassed Romney in the debates, don't you think that people including white people, people of all races, saw just a glimpse of an angry man who would defend them?

The angry black man image is not totally negative. It has a very positive side to it, believe it or not.

I hope my post does not offend people. I think that what we miss in Obama is someone who will really fight for us. He can do it. But somehow he all too often refuses to do it.

ProSense

(116,464 posts)
36. Problem
Tue Apr 9, 2013, 01:09 PM
Apr 2013
If they accept they get what they want -- twice. First, they get a chained CPI. Second, they got a Democrat to touch the rail. That means in the future they get to say, "Yes, well, Obama did it and..." Not only does that mute future criticisms of them but it shows blocs that have traditionally voted Democratic for purposes of protecting SS no longer have a safe haven. The Democratic party can no longer boast about being the party that never touched SS except to protect it because now a chained CPI has to portrayed as protection lest President Obama be jettisoned and THAT ain't gonna happen.

House Democrats are not going to support Social Security cuts, which means that the only way it passes the House is with Republican votes. Republicans don't want to be tagged with the vote. It has no chance in the Senate.

Boehner is never going to agree to the President's proposal.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10022623491

Also, you're ignoring the changes Clinton and other Presidents made to Social Security

The Story of COLAs (and amendments to Social Security)
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10022632157

Nuclear Unicorn

(19,497 posts)
43. I answered this in #22, if i may impose on you.
Tue Apr 9, 2013, 01:28 PM
Apr 2013

In addition to that, what's to stop the GOP from scuttling the rest of the President's budget and stuffing a chained CPI into one of their own while daring the Democrats to oppose their own president?

Don't think like you, think like your opponent. They have every motive to twist what you want into something you won't like.

ProSense

(116,464 posts)
51. From
Tue Apr 9, 2013, 01:47 PM
Apr 2013

post #22:

First, a Democratic President offered to touch SS. Ergo, the subject is no longer taboo. The charge has gone out of the third rail and it may now be touched with impunity. That is far too much territory to concede with no discernible gain.

History: The Story of COLAs (and amendments to Social Security)
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10022632157

Second, it doesn't matter why they vote down his budget what matters is what they will say was their motive while standing in front of the cameras; which leads me to

That's the point about rejecting it, not voting for it, the other part of the "win'win."

They will never vote for it because they will own it.

Thirdly, the President's own party has to turn on him to salavage their constituencies so the GOP gets to say they protected seniors and the disabled from a president too extremist for his fellow Democrats.

That's simply buying into a position the GOP would try to use without calling them out on their own actions.

House Republicans vote to end Medicare, again (passes Paul Ryan's Budget)
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10022546279

Senate GOP backs radical Ryan plan
http://www.democraticunderground.com/1002696142



VPStoltz

(1,295 posts)
38. My Dog! These "morans" are trying to tell us...
Tue Apr 9, 2013, 01:14 PM
Apr 2013

they don't have a single constituent on Medicare, Medicaid and/or SS.
Or are their constituents so racist they don't care about losing all their benefits just to get a win against the Black President?

tularetom

(23,664 posts)
39. What the so called low information voter is going to "learn" from all this
Tue Apr 9, 2013, 01:15 PM
Apr 2013

1. Obama attempted to cut social security benefits for senior citizens and those who will be someday.

2. The republicans said no and refused to allow his proposal to even be voted on.

Therefore:

1. Obama hates older people and

2. Boner and congressional republicans are the ones who stand up for them.

They will hear this again and again from the liberal media. This is all they will hear because they don't do "subtle" very well and 12 dimensional chess doesn't mean jack shit to them.

Social Security is more important to most Americans than gun control, It is more important than immigration reform. It is more important than abortion or same sex marriage and it's more important than ever because most middle aged Americans have awakened to the fact that they can't rely on pensions or 401k's to sustain them in their older years.

I'm unhappy with the president because I thought he was smarter than to allow himself to be sucked into a trap like this. And I see no upside for him. I'm really unhappy because I believe it will bite the Democrats in the ass in the 2014 midterms and destroy any chance they have to regain a congressional majority.

JDPriestly

(57,936 posts)
66. This is excellent and needed to be said.
Tue Apr 9, 2013, 03:13 PM
Apr 2013

"Social Security is more important to most Americans than gun control, It is more important than immigration reform. It is more important than abortion or same sex marriage and it's more important than ever because most middle aged Americans have awakened to the fact that they can't rely on pensions or 401k's to sustain them in their older years."

That's why the reaction is so strong on this, even stronger than on the other issues you mentioned.

We are all scared. We all know that this economy is not getting better very fast, and a lot of us are not getting any interest on our savings if we are so lucky as to be able to save.

A lot of people in their 40s and 50s have had to or are having to spend their "retirement" savings to educate their children or pay their mortgages or living expenses.

Wall Street and Nixon, Clinton, Reagan and the Bushes made promises and raised our hopes. But the reality as we now see is very different. ERISA which is the law that is supposed to protect employee benefits like retirement funds did just the opposite.

So here we are with our pension plans, our health care, education for our kids and grandkids, things that we should provide for ourselves as a social community, privatized, segmented.

Divide and conquer is the slogan. And that is what the Ayn Rand types who have really been running our economy since at least Reagan have done. We are conquered because we allowed ourselves to fall for the privatization meme.

Private means small business.

Big corporations are publicly owned by just by a small clique in the public.

I am not a socialist. I would like to see capitalism in our country that is not allowed to be too big to fail. We cannot have a good Social Security system, a functioning post office or the best schools possible unless we work together as a community and put and end to the privatization movement.

They are not talking about personal responsibility and personal ownership of businesses and commerce when they say privatization. They mean taking what has always been or should be in the hands of the people, of the governments and placing it in the hands of the rich oligarchs. That's all that privatization amounts to.

And these cuts to Social Security are part of the Ayn Randian privatization movement. Greenspan, et al. are the priests of that cult.

tularetom

(23,664 posts)
69. Our daughter will be 50 years old this November
Tue Apr 9, 2013, 04:17 PM
Apr 2013

She was born the day before the assassination of JFK in fact. She is slowly coming to grips with the fact that she will not be able to retire at 60 like her mother and I both did, and since she has had some health issues she can't afford to leave the job that she has since her employer picks up the tab for her health insurance. She and her husband have done all the right things financially like putting money into 401k's and using their home equity to help their two kids with college and/or business startup assistance. Now she realizes they may have failed to put enough aside for themselves.

Our son has finally become an adult at age 46 and has begun to save money instead of spending it on boats and motorcycles but he too is faced with the prospect of a long working life and bleak prospects for retirement as well as putting a very talented son through college.

Grandma and I are comfortable and I think we are set for the rest of our lives but we've cut back on some of the things we planned to do, simply because we were afraid that this crappy economy would screw up our kids' futures and we wanted to leave something for them.

Neither of our kids are wild eyed left wing radicals. Both are almost apolitical in fact. I'm not sure my son even bothered to vote in 2012. But they both are becoming big supporters of the so called liberal agenda although I don't think they realize it.

Our kids, in other words, are very typical of the generation that's going to suffer the most from the implementation of the chained CPI and if they don't examine the situation closely they will very likely come away with the impression that it was Obama who wanted to mess with their SS and the republicans who stuck up for them.

It's a real image/PR problem for the president in other words and I don't think he even realizes the magnitude of the problem.

 

Marr

(20,317 posts)
42. Don't expect a coherent rebuttal.
Tue Apr 9, 2013, 01:25 PM
Apr 2013

I've been having this argument for a few days now and all I've received in the way of response was misdirection and non sequiturs.

Jackpine Radical

(45,274 posts)
44. It's his last term. He has nothing to lose and everything to gain
Tue Apr 9, 2013, 01:36 PM
Apr 2013

by selling out the 99% for the benefit of the 1%.

The man is not stupid. I cannot believe that he is unaware of your points or that his action is a mere error.

Because I wish to honor your request for no vitriol, I will refrain from offering further character analysis.

Jackpine Radical

(45,274 posts)
49. The rich don't give a shit about gay rights or gun control.
Tue Apr 9, 2013, 01:45 PM
Apr 2013

In fact, they favor gun control.

As for climate change, one word.

Keystone.

 

Bluenorthwest

(45,319 posts)
73. Well he's not been heard 'pushing for gay rights' since a few days before he had to
Tue Apr 9, 2013, 09:35 PM
Apr 2013

show up for Clooney's fundraiser, way before the election. You are really reaching.

 

randome

(34,845 posts)
48. Obama is not a stupid man.
Tue Apr 9, 2013, 01:44 PM
Apr 2013

Regardless of what one thinks of this specific offer, that much has to be admitted.

I don't believe in having 'faith' in an individual. We are all imperfect.

But until something actually gets pushed to the front of the line, I'm willing to continue giving him the benefit of the doubt.

Babel_17

(5,400 posts)
56. Our strategy of trying to trick the Republicans into embracing cuts
Tue Apr 9, 2013, 02:27 PM
Apr 2013

has messily devolved into appearing to be insisting on cuts, into allowing the argument that there's a case for cuts.

The Republicans wanted the Chained CPI and now that they are offered it they are playing cute about it. They are counting on how uninformed the public is about the long history of budget negotiations between this administration and the Republicans.

http://www.politicususa.com/gop-hijacked-budget-december-chained-cpi-its.html

Imo, the administration needs to step back from negotiating right now, they need to start making the case that the Republicans need to start dealing honestly.

Imo, the Republicans are dead set on dishonest negotiation. The Republican leaders can't promise anything. Any deal will get voted down so as to get more concessions from us.

We need to state the reality of the situation.

Put out a honest, fair, budget and get the public to insist the Republicans negotiate with that. Make them openly fight for any compromises. Collegiality be damned, at this point.





JDPriestly

(57,936 posts)
57. No. He is Wall Street's president.
Tue Apr 9, 2013, 02:34 PM
Apr 2013

He is Pete Peterson's president. He is not "our" president.

He refuses to prosecute bankers. HE suggests the chained CPI which is a cut to middle-class recipients of Social Security who are receive benefits just barely high enough to keep them above the poverty level.

He didn't have to propose the chained CPI. The Constitution is clear that it is the duty of the House to initiate revenue and money bills.

Obama could have let Boehner suggest this damaging scheme to hurt the middle class.

Why did he do this?

Because he doesn't understand economics, and because he is addicted to people-pleasing.

Babel_17

(5,400 posts)
64. Well, the Republicans did already demand it, they just don't negotiate in good faith;
Tue Apr 9, 2013, 02:59 PM
Apr 2013

and we should have refused the demand anyway, though we could have offered them something to save face.

http://www.politicususa.com/gop-hijacked-budget-december-chained-cpi-its.html

In December of 2012, Speaker John Boehner (R-OH) said he had to have chained CPI.


Instead, we are left holding the bag for agreeing to the cuts, we're in public holding out cuts, while the Republicans have drifted away.

They can do that because they are ok with pushing the nation to failure. This is who we are negotiating with and assuming otherwise is costing us.

SleeplessinSoCal

(9,088 posts)
59. Here's my hope. That this begins an honest and widespread discussion on the budget.
Tue Apr 9, 2013, 02:38 PM
Apr 2013

The "Third Rail" has been touched and Obama's got a near fatal jolt. But if he can be given CPR and he opens up to how poorly he was advised by Wall Street operatives, then we all get a second chance.

A girl's gotta dream.

Babel_17

(5,400 posts)
63. I guess the hope is that Repuplicans will have to embrace tax cuts or, ...
Tue Apr 9, 2013, 02:51 PM
Apr 2013

if they can't get their people to risk the wrath of Grover Norquist, to provide a long term raise of the debt ceiling.

Not that I'm in favor of such swapping of even both those things in exchange for letting Republicans get to have a victory over SS.

It's time to get Presidential, or threaten to do so, by way of an address to the people regarding the bad faith negotiations of Republicans.

That would put the heat on them. Make them publicly have to answer what programs get cut and that they will cut SS benefits.

Our representatives have reasonable answers to any questions regarding a progressive way forward.

 

Doctor_J

(36,392 posts)
74. Bad morals = bad governance = bad politics
Wed Apr 10, 2013, 06:48 AM
Apr 2013

This is a disaster on all fronts. He must have assurance of some HUGE paychecks in retirement to do something so stupid AND despicable.

LWolf

(46,179 posts)
79. Yes.
Wed Apr 10, 2013, 08:33 AM
Apr 2013

When I read your thread title, I was already thinking "for the GOP" before I clicked on the thread.

bornskeptic

(1,330 posts)
80. Actually, the Republicans get nothing out of chained CPI.
Wed Apr 10, 2013, 08:51 AM
Apr 2013

Many DUers seem to think that it would somehow weaken Social Security, but actually all it does is redistribute benefits. It would reduce benefits slightly for current retirees and those near retirement, a big part of the Republican base. But by reducing benefits in the near term it would retain more dollars in the trust fund collecting interest to pay future benefits. As a result, it would extend the projected life of the trust fund by four or five years. In addition to hitting the GOP base the hardest, it would also raise income taxes across the board. It's true that it would reduce the near term deficit somewhat, but of course we know that Republicans don't really care about deficits.

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