North Korea's odd status as a mentally incompetent nation

[cthulu2016]

The US would be well within our rights to attack North Korea today, to take it over and entirely demilitarize it, except for one thing.

NK is, as a state actor, crazy. What NK says, and even does, is presumed to be incompetent.

It is like the town drunk in a western whose provocations would be well within the "shoot 'em" category except everyone knows he's the town drunk.

"Oh, that's just Jebediah... he calls out everyone. Don't pay him no mind."

It is strange to have a nation so lacking credibility that it can develop real nuclear explosives and develop long range missiles and announce that it is about to kill millions of Americans and the right play is, "Don't mind him. It's only North Korea. He says crazy stuff all the time, but his missles aren't actually very effective. Buy him a drink... that usually settles him some."

But here we are.

Unfortunately, if Jebediah's intention is to present enough of a danger to peace that somebody will buy him a drink, but everyone in town knows not to take him seriously, then he has to do worse and worse things to get that drink.

He wants to be taken seriously enough to be worth appeasing, but not quite seriously enough to have to destroy.

[Orsino]

1. Within our rights to kill thousands of people? No.

But finding a path toward the least misery and death is within our responsibility.

Knowing that we are dealing with people economically stressed to near a breaking point, that we are doing so via the cult of personality that is their leadership, and that their leadership is fixated on a nearly fictitious portrait of an aggressive us in order to cling to power, our responsibility is very great.

[cthulu2016]

5. "except"

The OP is about how we are not within our rights to attack NK because NK is not to be taken seriously.

If, however, NK was a credible state then we would be well within our rights.

NK has presented what would be an overwhelming case for preemptive action, were it not for the fact that we know that NK cannot follow through on its stated intentions.

[RKP5637]

2. Mentally incompetent 'and unstable' nation. It's hard IMO to take a

read on what's going on ... IMO, I think he's afraid of a military takeover of NK by his military, that he will be ousted from the generational throne. He did nothing to get there ... basically inherited the job. I bet there are others itching in NK for a chance to run the country. People say his 'missiles aren't actually very effective,' of course, but all it takes is one into SK to start a mess. Most are fed up with NK ... and I certainly don't blame them in the least. I seriously doubt this is just going to blow over ... at this stage he has too much face to save. His father understood the risks, I don't think his son really does ...

[cthulu2016]

6. I agree with you that it is probably mostly internal power-playing

[randome]

3. We should aid China in taking over the country as a Chinese province.

That seems to me to be the best alternative. That way, China still has a buffer between the mainland and S. Korea.

[Warren DeMontague]

4. I don't really think South Korea is much of a threat to China, honestly.

I understand it may not be practical from a global political perspective, but the best possible outcome for the people in NK would be for them to become part of the South, democratic institutions and all that.

[randome]

7. I think from a simple geographic standpoint, though, China may be 'uncomfortable'...

...with America on its doorstep. I agree the time for such worries is long past -especially with a more-or-less integrated economy- but the old ways are hard to put down.

[Warren DeMontague]

8. I'm not the history expert, but that was sort of how MacArthur fucked the whole situation up in

the first place, wasn't it?

I think Truman said "Don't get too close to the Yalu, you'll piss off the Chinese" and he did it anyway, precipitating their involvement and the eventual stalemate.

Had he not done so, the Korean War could have been wrapped up way earlier, with far better results for the population.

[longship]

9. I find their nuke claims to be equally not credible.

Apparently, their first two tests were Pu, and the third U. What's with that? Apparently, they couldn't get the Pu bomb right so they switched to the simpler U design. But their third test apparently didn't chain react either (~6 KTons, no daughter products detected).

This kind of supports your conclusions. I've been thinking the same. Still, it's a delicate situation. That little country could start a fucking big mess fairly quickly. But I am sure that Obama and company know what's what much more than our speculations. That undeniable fact is most comforting to me.

BTW, good post!
R&K

[lapislzi]

10. Wouldn't Sheriff China be the one to spot Jebediah that drink?

Give him a little talking-to at a private table, tell him that he's scaring the womenfolk and needs to simmer down, there's plenty of drinks to go around?

I like the geopolitics-as-saloon metaphor.

[TwilightGardener]

11. The whole world has to tiptoe around this country and fear "provoking" them--

I'm pretty tired of it. My sympathy for the people of North Korea is wearing thin. If it's a kill-or-be-killed situation, I'd rather it's them than us or SK.

[killbotfactory]

12. If you have nuclear weapons you have to present the threat of using them.

Otherwise it's pointless to have them.

It is accepted in our country that we would authorize nuclear responses to being attacked nation with WMD's.

Most of NK's threats have been that if we attack them, they will respond with nukes. Of course when they say "Attack us and we will destroy you!!!!!!!!" our media reports it as "We will destroy you!!!!!!!" and we think they are far crazier than they are.

NK is not crazy, or suicidal. They will push these threats as far as they can for their own reasons. Their behavior recently may have as much to do with gaining leverage with China, as it does with testing SK and the US.