Sign, Sign, Everywhere a Sign

[phantom power]

Let's go along with Stu Rothenberg and call it a debate, and not an argument that he's having with Daily Kos's Steve Singiser. And let's credit Rothenberg for conceding much of Singiser's debating points. I still have a problem with this statement:

But if the question is whether there is any evidence right now that Democrats can retake the House next year (especially considering historical trends and the number of swing districts), the answer has to be no. This conclusion is based on the evidence now, and if the evidence changes, so could my conclusion.

I conducted my own analysis of the House elections back on November 20th, and I found only 11 seats that the Democrats had a decent chance of winning in 2014. We would need 17 seats to win back control of the lower chamber, so my conclusion was that "The only way we can win back the House is to get on the ground in most of these districts and start organizing." Yet, that doesn't mean that I agree with Rothenberg that there are no signs that the Democrats can win back the House. There are signs everywhere. You have defense-oriented conservatives like John McCain and Lindsey Graham fighting with Tea Party-oriented conservatives like Ted Cruz and Rand Paul. You have former RNC head Michael Steele fighting with current RNC chairman Reince Preibus. You have cultural conservatives like Gary Bauer and Mike Huckabee fighting with establishment conservatives like Karl Rove and Reince Priebus. You have pro-immigration reform conservatives fighting with anti-immigration reform conservatives. You have CPAC disinviting governors Chris Christie and Bob O'Donnell to their conference. You have Mid-Atantic Republicans like Peter King of Long Island declaring war on southern Republicans over delayed disaster aid. You have an internal battle going on over how to deal with gay marriage. You can see growing public disenchantment with the Republicans' refusal to compromise, and they're taking very unpopular positions on background checks for gun purchases that have the support of 90% of the population. Even the latest generic congressional preference poll from the right-leaning Rasmussen has the Democrats with a 7-point advantage (during last November's election week, it was a 3-point advantage). In February, the DSCC outraised the NRSC by 2-to-1. And no one disputes that the Republicans have nothing like Organizing for America or their brilliant digital staff.

What more signs does Rothenberg want?

Of course, the Democrats are still going to have to recruit strong candidates that can win in districts that Romney carried. It's premature to actually predict that the Democrats will win back the House. But it's pure blindness to not see how badly the Republican Party has fallen into disarray and infighting in the aftermath of their disastrous election last November.

http://www.boomantribune.com/story/2013/4/2/121815/2697

[zipplewrath]

1. It is a path that is hard to see

"Of course, the Democrats are still going to have to recruit strong candidates that can win in districts that Romney carried. It's premature to actually predict that the Democrats will win back the House."

It isn't just "premature", it is a case that it is hard to plot the path to taking the house. GOP gerrymandering has made it nearly impossible to do. We are early in the decade so demographics haven't changed alot. It is one thing to see that the GOP has many problems to wrestle. However, it is another to translate that into an explanation of what districts will be won and lost such that the Dems end up in the majority.

[phantom power]

2. I don't think the Dems can make this happen for 2014, but 2016 seems conceivable.

I hope they see their opening and go after it aggressively.

[zipplewrath]

3. Texas

The only path I see to this is if the demographics shift in Texas and maybe Florida. But that would require pretty large shifts.

[phantom power]

6. The other possible angle is a 3rd-party split on the right.

The GOP wingnut base is threatening to go all 3rd party on their asses. This would create all kinds of opportunities for Democratic candidates.

[zipplewrath]

7. For House races, they tend to "primary" them

We've seen something along this line with both the T-baggers and the "Arch" conservatives. But they don't go all third party, they force the contest into primaries. That could help somewhat, but in safe districts, it tends to mean that the nut job picks up all the GOP votes in the general anyway.

[Scuba]

4. A self-fullfilling prophecy.

"We can't win, so don't try."

We can win, just spread the truth. Too bad both major parties are working for the other side much of the time.

[talkingmime]

5. There's only one possible response...