David Paleologos (Suffolk U) latest VA poll shows Obama +2, announces "unwinnable for Obama"

[grantcart]

Latest Suffolk Poll 9/27

http://www.suffolk.edu/offices/53562.html

President Barack Obama (46 percent) clings to a 2-point lead over Republican challenger Mitt Romney (44 percent), in a swing-state nail-biter, according to a Suffolk University/NBC12 (WWBT-Richmond) poll of likely general-election voters in Virginia. Seven percent were undecided.

The race is close – with survey results within the statistical margin of error – despite a decided popularity advantage for Obama. He boasted a +8 (52 percent favorable to 44 percent unfavorable) to Romney’s -3 (42 percent favorable to 45 percent unfavorable).

“Barack Obama shows personal popularity and strength, especially outside of the D.C. area in northern Virginia,” said David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center in Boston.

and today

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2012/10/09/pollster_says_obama_cant_win_fl_nc_and_va.html#050759a

Pollster David Paleologos of Suffolk University told Bill O'Reilly that his organization will not be doing any further polls in Florida, North Carolina and Virginia because he believes President Obama has no chance to win those states.

If I ever ran a company the way that these guys carry on I would have been closed on day one.

And no one bothers to click on their website to see what the guys own polls show. Oh yeah he was on Fox.

What a farce.

This isn't about cherry picking polls this is about a pattern of incompetence and willful misrepresentation that if it were a lawyer or a doctor would get you a malpractice suit. (By the way did you note that the last poll was 'likely voters' usually the most disadvantageous way to poll for Democrats?

But hey in an industry where an unemployed DeVry graduate can get to the head of the class over night why ask questions.

[flamingdem]

1. Is their poll needed?

Well good riddance, that's a ridiculous statement. Must be for financial reasons or something.

[Dawson Leery]

2. Is this hack covering for fraud?

His polls suggest Obama will win the state.

[hrmjustin]

3. +1

[porphyrian]

20. Let's see if he or his company are named in the criminal investigation of...

...the republicans tied to the voter registration fraud.

[LisaL]

4. Wow.

Obama is leading, among likely voters, no less, but can not win? Bizarro world, indeed.

[woolldog]

5. Very strange and absurd thing to say.

Don't get what he's thinking. The pollsters have been getting weirder and weirder.

[Dawson Leery]

6. Obama 52% favorable, Rmoney 42% favorable = Rmoney win?!?

[woolldog]

7. Just checked 538.com

and FL is now pink. VA is still light blue. NC is pink.

[flamingdem]

8. He said this on FOX

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/10/10/1142453/-WTF-Suffolk-U-Pollster-Commits-Professional-Malpractice

So this presumptuous little fellow made his grand sweeping pronouncement while interviewing with none other than the grand master bloviator himself, Bill O'Reilly. Here is the transcript in full:

O'Reilly: [Asks a question about other states, such as Pennsylvania, Iowa, Nevada, etc]

Paleologos: ...I think In places like North Carolina, Florida, Virginia - we've already painted those red. We're not polling any of those states again. We're focusing on the remaining states--

O'Reilly: That's interesting. Let me stop you there. So you're convinced - your polling ageny is convinced - that Florida, North Carolina, and Virginia are going to go for Romney?

Paleologos: That's right, and here's why. Before the debate the Suffolk Poll had Obama winning 46-43 in the head to head number - a poor place to be for a couple of reasons. Number 1, his ballot test, his head to head number, was under 47 before the debate. And it's very difficult when you have the known quantity, the incumbent, to claw your way up to 50. So that was a very very poor place for him to be. And so we're looking at this polling data not only in Florida, but in Virginia and in North Carolina, and it's overwhelming.

more at link

[Baitball Blogger]

25. Is this a Republican wet dream? Winning Florida?

Or are they counting on the flip voting software in Palm Beach?

[flamingdem]

9. The term is "MAKING A MEDIA NARRATIVE"

psyching people out...

=== from KOS


Because it is not possible that whatever movement we're seeing towards Romney right now is an ephemeral bounce? Because yours is the only poll in existence, and no others showed Obama exceeding the 46% mark in any of these states? Because two nights ago PPP didn't show Obama leading with 50% post-debate? Because, oh I don't know, even if you're right and a huge shitbomb just exploded in those three states, other mitigating factors can't impact the race in the next four weeks?

Nope. Those three are done. No more polling.

OK. So even if there were a somewhat justifiable rationale for pulling all polling from these states, is there no hint of journalistic integrity in you at all? Do you have no sense that by making a pronouncement like that, you are actually creating a media narrative that impacts the state of the race? <----- [stupid rhetorical questions]

Is there any reason at all that anyone can think of, any rational and understandable scenario, where a pollster 4 weeks before an election would declare 3 states that have been very much in play for the entire year, and for most of this time trending in the President's favor, would blithely write them off with absolutely no justification other than appealing to numbers from previous polls? Now granted, as I said I have no background in statistics. But is past performance any reliable indicator of future performance? Pretty sure I heard somewhere that past performance has zero bearing on future outcomes.

[Cha]

13. It's so obvious. It's done to scare

voters into the FEAR Zone/Big Freak Out Distraction Zone..and, by dawg it's Working so well..you can smell it on some of these threads.

[flamingdem]

22. Yes we can see it here. Not just the trolls!

I'm half ready to write a rant because this is all a big psyche out and the Republicans WIN at that game!

aaarg

After Thursday things should calm down but the pundits have to stop saying the momentum is with Romney, the democratic pundits!

[Cha]

30. Pic of Michelle Obama in Leesburg today for you, flamingdem

http://theobamadiary.com/

[flamingdem]

31. Great pic thanks!

She has so much energy, and no signs of pessimism there

[Indpndnt]

10. So, he's trashing his own poll with his prediction.

Well, isn't that special.

[flamingdem]

11. Why should he care, Koch etc $ has him set up for life no doubt!

maybe maybe not

[Indpndnt]

12. Oh, he's definitely doing it for compensation.

Nobody would do that to their own image without some big $$$$$$.

[grantcart]

14. kick

[MiniMe]

15. Suffolk is not Northern VA. I suspect this guy is trying to

get recognition and "credibility" for his poll. Bet he watches Fox Noise.

[bigdarryl]

16. I'm going to keep this article until Nov 6 election day

Unless there's some bullshit we don't know going on in those states how the hell your going to stop polling a month out before election thats what they did against Dewey vs. Truman

[DemocratSinceBirth]

17. I Saw That Clown Kibbutzing With Neil Cavuto

He definitely has a candidate in this fight. He should say so.

[ProSense]

18. His Florida poll showed the President up by 3 points:

Obama Leads By 3 Points In Florida

President Obama leads Republican nominee Mitt Romney 46 percent to Romney's 43 percent in a new poll of Florida from Suffolk University. From their analysis:

Romney continues to struggle with his likability. His 45 percent favorable rating is 3 points higher than in a survey the Suffolk University Political Research Center conducted in May; yet his unfavorable rating is also up 2 points, to 47 percent today.

Obama has been consistently more popular, with a 51 percent favorable and 46 percent unfavorable rating.

<...>

http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/entry/obama-leads-by-3-points-in-florida

[Baitball Blogger]

26. I know, right? Florida is still in the game.

[B2G]

19. The poll you reference was done on 9/27

Before the debate. In political terms, that's a lifetime ago. Just sayin...

[grantcart]

24. that would be a very good reason to do more polling

How is it a reason to call it unwinnable for either candidate,

Unless,

Just saying . . .

[OldDem2012]

21. Must be interviewing with those crack pollsters at Pew. nt.

[grantcart]

23. kick

[CoffeeCat]

27. Nothing new...Republicans and Fox News...

...have been lying their asses off about the polls and who is winning--since this campaign's inception.

When they were behind--they were spouting all kinds of conspiracy theories and they even had Dick Morris explain to everyone why Romney was really winning.

Looks, it's no big deal. It's just more spin and lies from the Republicans.

I was flipping through the channels last night and I happened to see Fox News had an electoral map. I laughed so hard. Most of it was red! It was utterly ridiculous!

This is Karl Rove, people--trying to increase the rabid factor with the base. They're lying. And spinning.

This is nothing new. Nothing to get excited about. They lie when they're losing. They lie when they're gaining a bit. And next week--after Biden and Obama have great debates---they'll lie some more.

[reformist2]

28. Mind games: This guy has been all over Repug Radio & TV all year.

[reformist2]

29. Also, what pollster stops polling the month before the election???

[MattBaggins]

32. Mr. Ancient Logic says he has no chance

What an appropriate name.