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Roland99

(53,342 posts)
Mon Sep 21, 2020, 05:03 PM Sep 2020

FL - last week's Monmouth Poll has lots of positive info (but one frightening prediction)

https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/monmouthpoll_FL_091520/
Biden currently holds a significant advantage in 7 counties where the vote margins were closest in the 2016 presidential election. The Democrat has a 60% to 33% lead among registered voters in these swing counties* where Clinton won the aggregate vote by a single point. Biden also racks up a sizable 63% to 34% margin in counties that went solidly for Clinton by a similar 27 points in 2016. Trump leads in the counties he won handily (60% to 33%), also by a similar 26 points four years ago.

Looking at regional strength another way, Biden currently has a 29-point lead (63% to 34%) in the 3-county southeast coastal portion of the state. He also has a small 6-point edge (50% to 44%) in central Florida. Trump leads in the rest of the state by 9 points (51% to 42%). In 2016, Clinton won the southeast by 28 points, but Trump won central Florida by less than a percentage point. He also won the remainder of the state by 19 points.



Central FL may be the key (along with increase turnout in the SE)

BUT, this is a scary move for FL primaries as I will NOT be surprised to see republicans run candidates as Dems in the primaries to siphon off votes.

Also, 63% of voters plan to vote for changing the state’s primary system for state and local offices to an open “jungle” format where the top two vote-getters advance to the general election regardless of party affiliation. Just 21% oppose this.
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dameatball

(7,380 posts)
1. You are correct about the open primaries amendment. It may be easily manipulated if it passes.
Mon Sep 21, 2020, 05:14 PM
Sep 2020

I fail to understand the argument that closed primaries are somehow unfair to third parties. If a third party candidate is running you can certainly vote for them. Otherwise register as a Democrat or a Republican.
I have a feeling it will pass....unfortunately. It seems innocent enough to the average voter.

Roland99

(53,342 posts)
2. I always think back to my history teacher in HS (decades ago now)
Mon Sep 21, 2020, 05:15 PM
Sep 2020

"Register Democrat and vote for the weakest candidate in the primary. Then vote for the Republican in November)

This was KY...at a Catholic, all-boys high school.

PoindexterOglethorpe

(25,746 posts)
4. Here in New Mexico people who register as Independent
Mon Sep 21, 2020, 06:50 PM
Sep 2020

think that the closed primary system somehow discriminates against them. Just register with one of the two major parties if you want to vote in the primary. It's that easy.

jorgevlorgan

(8,227 posts)
3. Weve done it in california forever now
Mon Sep 21, 2020, 05:23 PM
Sep 2020

And generally it has worked out well. We got screwed once in 2012 when we were locked out of a democratic district, but the strategies improved in 2014, and most of the time it has favored democrats more than Republicans.

 

rufus dog

(8,419 posts)
5. yup, this along with clean drawing of districts was expected to have a slight negative impact on Dem
Mon Sep 21, 2020, 07:10 PM
Sep 2020

In fact the Dems had gains at the State and National elections. (even before the 2018 wave)

jorgevlorgan

(8,227 posts)
6. I think this would be a good thing for florida if they move ahead with it.
Mon Sep 21, 2020, 07:20 PM
Sep 2020

Also the clean drawing of districts would be nice!

 

rufus dog

(8,419 posts)
7. If I recall we put both in together, not sure though
Mon Sep 21, 2020, 07:28 PM
Sep 2020

I can't recall the exact incident where the Dems got locked out, did it have something to do with the Dem and ethics?

Regardless, all an all it seems to have worked. Especially drawing the clean districts, put logical districts in and didn't break up areas. I recall one area in the San Gabriel Valley that was split into three districts by cutting fingers into the area. It was two Dem and one Repubs historically. Since the redraw I believe all three have gone Dem AND all the neighboring cities, with the same issues and similar beliefs, now have one Rep.
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