General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsPollster that predicted trump MI win in 2016 and accurate in 2018 shows Biden up 2.4% in PA
Trafalgar Group, rated C by 538, managed to be the closest pollster to trump's win in MI in 2016 and was one of the most accurate in the 2018 elections.
They show tighter races in key states but still showing a Biden lead
PA (Biden +2.4 with 2.3% undecided):
Link to tweet
NC (trump +1.7 with 2.5% undecided)
Link to tweet
NC-Sen (Cunningham +0.8 with 5.3% undecided)
Link to tweet
This is NOT an endorsement of them. Cahaly is certainly conservative and probably a trump supporter but their numbers have been pretty accurate (he claims that his 'how do you think your neighbors will vote' questions pull trump supporters out of the woodwork who are probably embarrassed or even ashamed of their support of him but support him regardless)
Oh...note: a key Senate seat we need to keep (Peters in MI) shows a repuke lead:
https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/news/mi-sen-0820/
DemsIn2020
(81 posts)Not good.. I figured PA was close, no way Biden was up that much..
This is going to be a stressful November.
Joe needs to work PA bad..
lagomorph777
(30,613 posts)Bullshit GOP pollster.
regnaD kciN
(26,035 posts)nsd
(2,406 posts)And they have a pronounced Republican bias.
Trafalgar polls barely count as data, much less as a reason to worry.
Sugarcoated
(7,707 posts)LOL Joe's winning PA.
rockfordfile
(8,682 posts)Thekaspervote
(32,606 posts)538 poll avg for PA today 4.6
The Economist gives Biden an 82% chance of winning. PA
Wanderlust988
(509 posts)They are just right wing hacks.
Roland99
(53,342 posts)The fact they were the only ones calling MI for trump in 2016 (and one of very few showing PA for trump in 2016) should give some weight to them, regardless of their ideology.
To me, if THEIR poll shows Biden up 2.4% in PA, that's a VERY good thing!
dawg
(10,610 posts)They are outlier polls that attempt to adjust their raw numbers to account for "shy" Trump voters.
Rice4VP
(1,235 posts)those margins
Roland99
(53,342 posts)and Harris on the ticket is a wondrous choice.
Tim Kaine was the "Bingo Bob" choice ("West Wing" reference there)
Loki Liesmith
(4,602 posts)They add 3-5 points to any Trump number to compensate for secret Trump voters. Thats not an accusation. Its their admitted methodology.
Celerity
(42,666 posts)No way enough white power MAGAts would push the button for him in sufficient numbers needed to win. Michigan is chock full of Nazis.
Roland99
(53,342 posts)Sugarcoated
(7,707 posts)have made adjustments in the models, this poll isn't the be all end all.