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Roland99

(53,342 posts)
Mon Sep 21, 2020, 04:10 PM Sep 2020

Pollster that predicted trump MI win in 2016 and accurate in 2018 shows Biden up 2.4% in PA

Trafalgar Group, rated C by 538, managed to be the closest pollster to trump's win in MI in 2016 and was one of the most accurate in the 2018 elections.

They show tighter races in key states but still showing a Biden lead


PA (Biden +2.4 with 2.3% undecided):





NC (trump +1.7 with 2.5% undecided)




NC-Sen (Cunningham +0.8 with 5.3% undecided)





This is NOT an endorsement of them. Cahaly is certainly conservative and probably a trump supporter but their numbers have been pretty accurate (he claims that his 'how do you think your neighbors will vote' questions pull trump supporters out of the woodwork who are probably embarrassed or even ashamed of their support of him but support him regardless)



Oh...note: a key Senate seat we need to keep (Peters in MI) shows a repuke lead:
https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/news/mi-sen-0820/
17 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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Pollster that predicted trump MI win in 2016 and accurate in 2018 shows Biden up 2.4% in PA (Original Post) Roland99 Sep 2020 OP
fuck!!! DemsIn2020 Sep 2020 #1
Relax, it's Trafalgar, C-rated (sez so in the OP). lagomorph777 Sep 2020 #2
In other words, rated lower than C+ Rasmussen... regnaD kciN Sep 2020 #4
Trafalgar is not a good pollster. nsd Sep 2020 #5
Relax, take a hot bath Sugarcoated Sep 2020 #15
That's a right-wing pollster rockfordfile Sep 2020 #3
Trafalgar is the worst. They get very little wt in the 538 avg and none in the Economist poll avg Thekaspervote Sep 2020 #6
Why are you posting Trafalgar bullshit? Wanderlust988 Sep 2020 #7
Did you not read my OP? Roland99 Sep 2020 #9
If Trafalgar shows Biden up by 2.4%, then PA is looking pretty grim for Trump. dawg Sep 2020 #8
Whatever...it's all about turnout with Rice4VP Sep 2020 #10
Exactly!! GOTV is and always has been the key Roland99 Sep 2020 #12
Trag is hot garbage Loki Liesmith Sep 2020 #11
If candidates' faces were on the ballot, James would never get within 10 points of Peters Celerity Sep 2020 #13
The only pollster to show trump winning in MI in 2016 now has Biden up +1 in MI! Roland99 Sep 2020 #14
Pollsters in this election Sugarcoated Sep 2020 #16
of course not, but it leans toward favoring trump but shows Biden in the lead Roland99 Sep 2020 #17
 

DemsIn2020

(81 posts)
1. fuck!!!
Mon Sep 21, 2020, 04:13 PM
Sep 2020

Not good.. I figured PA was close, no way Biden was up that much..

This is going to be a stressful November.

Joe needs to work PA bad..

nsd

(2,406 posts)
5. Trafalgar is not a good pollster.
Mon Sep 21, 2020, 04:16 PM
Sep 2020

And they have a pronounced Republican bias.

Trafalgar polls barely count as data, much less as a reason to worry.

Thekaspervote

(32,606 posts)
6. Trafalgar is the worst. They get very little wt in the 538 avg and none in the Economist poll avg
Mon Sep 21, 2020, 04:16 PM
Sep 2020

538 poll avg for PA today 4.6
The Economist gives Biden an 82% chance of winning. PA

Roland99

(53,342 posts)
9. Did you not read my OP?
Mon Sep 21, 2020, 04:21 PM
Sep 2020

The fact they were the only ones calling MI for trump in 2016 (and one of very few showing PA for trump in 2016) should give some weight to them, regardless of their ideology.

To me, if THEIR poll shows Biden up 2.4% in PA, that's a VERY good thing!

dawg

(10,610 posts)
8. If Trafalgar shows Biden up by 2.4%, then PA is looking pretty grim for Trump.
Mon Sep 21, 2020, 04:18 PM
Sep 2020

They are outlier polls that attempt to adjust their raw numbers to account for "shy" Trump voters.

Roland99

(53,342 posts)
12. Exactly!! GOTV is and always has been the key
Mon Sep 21, 2020, 04:44 PM
Sep 2020

and Harris on the ticket is a wondrous choice.

Tim Kaine was the "Bingo Bob" choice ("West Wing" reference there)

Loki Liesmith

(4,602 posts)
11. Trag is hot garbage
Mon Sep 21, 2020, 04:43 PM
Sep 2020

They add 3-5 points to any Trump number to compensate for “secret Trump voters”. That’s not an accusation. It’s their admitted methodology.

Celerity

(42,666 posts)
13. If candidates' faces were on the ballot, James would never get within 10 points of Peters
Mon Sep 21, 2020, 04:51 PM
Sep 2020

No way enough white power MAGAts would push the button for him in sufficient numbers needed to win. Michigan is chock full of Nazis.

Roland99

(53,342 posts)
14. The only pollster to show trump winning in MI in 2016 now has Biden up +1 in MI!
Thu Sep 24, 2020, 12:07 PM
Sep 2020



MICHIGAN
Trump 47% (+1)
Biden 46%
Jorgensen 2%

@trafalgar_group, 9/20-22
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