Arizona Stands Out From a Mostly Static Presidential Race in Battleground States

[Demsrule86]

Biden has improved his numbers during the convention and amid civil unrest. Take that 'doom and gloomers.' Biden is going to win with large numbers and we will know on election day although I predict as time passes the win will only get bigger. I have also posted what the map would look like if we truly win all the close states...it could happen people...work hard and vote!!!

https://morningconsult.com/2020/09/01/battleground-presidential-polling-post-conventions/



Despite two weeks of party conventions and amid civil unrest prompted by the police shooting of Jacob Blake in Kenosha, Wis., the state of the race between President Donald Trump and Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden stands largely unchanged from its pre-convention numbers in some of the country’s most-contested states — with the notable exception of Arizona.

While Biden was trailing the president in the Southwestern battleground by 2 percentage points in an Aug. 7-16 Morning Consult poll conducted before the Aug. 17 start of the Democratic National Convention, the former vice president has improved his margin over Trump by 12 points.

According to the Aug. 21-30 survey of 943 likely Arizona voters, which has a 3-point margin of error, Biden leads Trump, 52 percent to 42 percent, driven by a 10-point increase in support among Arizona men, statistically tying him with Trump (49 percent to 45 percent), and a 7-point increase in support with suburban Arizonans, who now favor Biden by 9 points, 51 percent to 42 percent. He also leads among women (55 percent to 40 percent) and independents (51 percent to 37 percent) in the state.


"

[PCIntern]

1. Love it!

I want to see this fascist trounced.

[Demsrule86]

2. I do too...and I look at the previous elctions from 17 on and see a victory...maybe bigger than

we might ever expect.

[empedocles]

3. Be nice to know why AZ is moving

[Demsrule86]

4. I would bet that there are two reasons...one is Trump's attitude towards killing seniors is just

fine with him. The other reason is that it is getting out Trump wants to kill social security, and Medicare and Medicaid. I also think the ACA plays a role as well.

[empedocles]

7. Hope AZ leads a pack. Especially in the retirement states.

Some prospects from Retirement Living:

1 Arkansas 16.9% 0.36 $3,620 8.77
2 Florida 20.5% 0.21 $3,045 8.35
3 Alabama 17% 0.31 $3,271 7.78
4 South Carolina 17.7% 0.26 $3,500 7.72
5 West Virginia 19.9% 0.41 $3,500 6.44
6 Ohio 17.1% 0.35 $4,278 6.92
7 Delaware 18.7% 0.25 $5,745 8.30
8 Idaho 15.9% 0.18 $3,260 8.44
9 Kentucky 16.4% 0.32 $3,520 7.22
10 Arizona 17.5% 0.20 $4,380 8.26
11 New Hampshire 18.10% 0.24 $4,760 8.143
12 North Dakota 15.3% 0.26 $3,420 7.50
13 Oklahoma 15.7% 0.38 $3,100 6.21
14 South Dakota 16.6% 0.26 $3,500 6.50
15 Iowa 17.1% 0.37 $3,520 4.857
16 Pennsylvania 18.2% 0.29 $3,750 6.037
17 Tennessee 16.4% 0.26 $3,920 7.42
18 Nevada 15.7% 0.18 $3,500 7.80
19 Wyoming 16.5% 0.24 $4,100 6.5
20 Missouri 16.4% 0.32 $3,520 7.22

[Demsrule86]

9. I think it is making a difference in Ohio. I have asked the camapaign to consider running

SS, Medicare and Medicaid ads here.

[empedocles]

12. . . . and USPS - reportedly an across the board issue, that has backfired on trump.

[Demsrule86]

13. That too...everything he tries seems to fail...one thing is fortunate...Trump is evil but

on the plus side, he is arrogant and incompetent at the same time...this is helpful to our side.

[empedocles]

14. Certainly worth repeating

Star Member catbyte (20,235 posts)


Donald Trump's attacks on the US Post Office have blown up in his face in spectacular fashion:report
August 30, 2020

By Tom Boggioni

Donald Trump’s attempts to curtail mail-in voting by having his Postmaster General interfere with U.S. Post Office operations is having the unintended effect of filling the coffers of Democratic candidates who will be on the ballot in November.

According to a report from the Daily Beast, at least one hundred Democrats currently running for office have used the uproar over postal interruptions in their emails to supporters designed to rake in contributions — and it is working.

“It’s huge—every single client has been trying to capitalize on it,” explained one Democratic strategist before adding, “It’s rare you get an issue where every candidate, whether they’re a Blue Dog or very liberal, is so aligned on this.”

snip

According to Democratic strategist Jared Leopold, “I’ve sat in dozens of focus groups of swing voters, and they care about core competency of government. This is a great proof point of something that is apolitical that Trump has politicized and screwed up… It’s a reason why Democrats would go on offense about it.”

snip

https://www.rawstory.com/2020/08/donald-trumps-s-on-the-us-post-office-have-blown-up-in-his-face-in-spectacular-fashion-report/

(Paywall)

[Demsrule86]

15. This should be a stand alone OP...it makes me smile.

Thank you!!!!

[Demsrule86]

16. Another reason could be the blatant racism Trump is displaying...

[JonLP24]

30. Demographic shifts

Remember before 2016 analysts used to say it would be unlikely for a Republican to win the Presidency again because of future demographic shifts? Clinton's loss was a fluke.

Without the help of Cambridge Analytica & Russia tactics I don't think Trump wins.

[onetexan]

5. K&R

[Demsrule86]

6. Thanks! I am sick of those who basically post over and over how we can't beat Trump, such

posters are playing into Trump's hands. That is what all the Trump election BS is about to discourage Democratic voters...make them give up.

Never give up!!!!

[Stuart G]

11. We will beat Trump.

[Demsrule86]

21. I just wanted to add...like a drum. Fired up and ready to go.

[onetexan]

18. From the numbers u posted Biden is up in mostly significant

Numbers except OH so im unclear why ppl are pessimistic. We need to keep fighting but not spread panic.

[Demsrule86]

20. I agree. And I don't think Ohio is lost yet either...still within reach.

I think people are burned from 16 and how we thought we would win and didn't. But this election is nothing like 16...more akin to 08 IMHO. Also, there are those here who do not like Biden and take every opportunity to post negatively about him within the rules. I think they really do want Biden to win...just not by that much.

[PoliWrangler]

8. K&R nt

[Demsrule86]

10. Thank you very much and welcome.

[musclecar6]

17. As always

It will be a fight to the finish. One thing we have going for us is the deplorable party, who are all just like trump out for themselves and don’t give a fuck about anybody else, have launched relentless attacks on just about everybody and is certainly going to piss off minorities,Goldstar families, military people and on and on so we have a good chance this time because of who Trump is. They could not have chosen a worse spokesperson.

[Demsrule86]

19. Absolutely true...and we will fight to the end no doubt. Trump will not go quietly...but I think

in the end we will beat him...hopefully in a landslide.

[Demsrule86]

26. I almost forgot...did you see the military polls? Trump is under water.

[MerryBlooms]

22. R&K

[Demsrule86]

23. Thank you...It means a great deal from you. How are you Merry?

[MerryBlooms]

24. Oh my goodness, you're too kind.

I love seeing so much blue in the morning, don't you! Thank you for the huge smile.

Hanging in there, like everyone else. Work, super-dash grocery shopping, pharmacy... Lots of worrying for friends and loved ones. Worry for the country. Spending time in my gardens and on DU to help with daily self-care. At least Oregon has mandatory mask in public spaces, so that helps the stress level.

Hope you and yours are well. I appreciate your positive posts, they really help after reading about all the horrible things this administration does 24/7. Thanks so much.

[Demsrule86]

25. I am glad to know you are doing as well as anyone can at the moment...Hubs and I are

unemployed but hanging in there...I am devoting my free time to the Biden campaign...my garden is finally producing and is a very relaxing endeavor. We had so much hot weather that it was pretty bad in August. I have not seen anyone in my part of Ohio without a mask so that is good. Our cases are rising and it has hit our family, my brother and my sister-in -law. But both survived. I appreciate you posts as well...I really believe we will beat Trump in November. You take care and stay safe!

[NoRoadUntravelled]

27. This is very encouraging.

I'm hanging on to this map like a life raft right now.

[Sogo]

28. Jeez. I LOVE THAT EC MAP!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Poiuyt]

29. That map might be a little optimistic

We’re still behind in Texas and Georgia. Georgia will be especially tough to win because the republicans there are so good at cheating.

[lastlib]

31. We need to contribute to the Dems in the battleground states!!

Please help them out if you are able! The country you save might be yours.