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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsWhy trump can't just refuse to leave office - encouraging
Last edited Wed Aug 19, 2020, 03:19 PM - Edit history (1)
Trump Can't Just Refuse to Leave Office
We have a lot of things to worry about in the next eight months. This isnt one of them.
SLATE
By Fred Kaplan
June 1, 2020
The fear is spreading that if President Donald Trump loses the election this November, hell refuse to leave office. Bill Maher has been warning of this specter on his HBO show, Real Time, since late last year. This past weekend, New York Times columnist Roger Cohen called Trumps compliance with the election results the most critical question for American democracy and wrote that the chances are growing that Trump would not concede if Joe Biden won. Biden himself has raised the possibility on a few occasions.
If Trump could get away with refusing to leave the Oval Office, in order to extend his autocratic power, as Cohen put it, he probably would. But he wouldnt get away with it; those around him would almost certainly advise him against it, if he asked; therefore my guess is, he wont try. Then again, in recent years many things have happened that I would have bet against. Lets say the nightmare happens. Here is why it wont last long.
So its the morning of Jan. 20, 2021. Trump doesnt meet President-elect Joe Biden and his wife in the White House driveway, nor does he attend the inauguration on Capitol Hill. Instead, he proclaims, as he has many times by this point, that the election was a fraud (he has set the stage for this with his false claims about mail-in ballots), and at noon, instead of acceding to the transfer of power, Trump proclaims that the swearing in was FAKE NEWS and that he remains the president.
Here is what would happen next.
On the dot of noon, the nuclear codes, which currently allow Trump to order and authenticate a nuclear attack, expire. The officer who has been following him around everywhere with the footballwhich, contrary to popular belief, is not a button or a palm print but rather a book filled with various launch codesleaves. If Trump and whatever lackeys stay with him prevent the officer from leaving, another officer, holding a backup football, would join Biden at the inauguration ceremony.
https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2020/06/trump-election-refusal-leave.html
(I needed to edit this post to comply with DU's copyright policy, in case you wondered why it has been modified.)
Hoyt
(54,770 posts)I think it was on CNN, maybe Sunday.
I'm with him. Just another "concern" that might cause some to question whether they should bother to vote.
Mike 03
(16,616 posts)Al Gore knows the inside workings of the White House.
stopdiggin
(11,238 posts)rather than people who imagine sh*t?
Thomas Hurt
(13,903 posts)Grokenstein
(5,721 posts)Imagine him screaming and wailing as two FBI agents, one on each arm, drag him out of the White House and into a white van.
Why, it might push his support all the way down to 23%.
AZ8theist
(5,407 posts)The traitorous, racist fuckwits will keep his support at 32%, not 23.
NCjack
(10,279 posts)all over, you will be arrested for sedition, brought to trial, and convicted.
tblue37
(65,215 posts)Wounded Bear
(58,584 posts)A few Bradley AFVs would suffice, and would do less damage to the road surface.
Aristus
(66,275 posts)Bradleys coming down the street at them, which would no doubt hinder them when running away.
KS Toronado
(17,138 posts)jmowreader
(50,528 posts)My recommendation is a crop duster with a tank full of CS powder.
If that doesn't work, the Old Guard should have a few mortars.
SergeStorms
(19,148 posts)the first one dispensing powdered soap, the second.......... water! Wash the dirt off those stanky clowns and their mystique takes a big hit, not to mention their pride.
smb
(3,471 posts)...an obnoxious mix of the strongest and most "girly" scents I could find.
fescuerescue
(4,448 posts)This worry comes up every 4 years. Every 4 years and it's annoying. Each side demonizing the other and expects the other to do terrible things when/if they lose. Last 2 times it was the Republicans being scared about it (rolling my eyes).
HOWEVER:
If such a thing happened. It would not be this orderly clinical legal procedure. It would be a coup. Coups are bloody. People change loyalty in coups. People are SHOCKED at how and how changes their loyalty and how laws are ignored. People DIE and the rightful leaders and the chain of successors are in extreme danger or are murdered at the start of the coup.
Truly it would be the end of our prosperity and the first day of becoming the newest 3rd world country. Before it was over millions upon millions would be dead.
I'm not concerned. Trump will leave in January (or worst case January 2024). But if he refuses. It's going to be the worst day of our lives for all Americans. Not Just Democrats. All of us.
Mike 03
(16,616 posts)anti-Trump conspiracy theorist Larry Nichols was peddling the "Bill Clinton won't leave office" stuff. Martial law, black helicopters, internment camps.
Still, Trump is such an outlier. I've never heard a president in my lifetime say he might have "three terms" because he was investigated during the first term, or promote the idea that the election would be fraudulent and "rigged", or try to incite violence from his followers.
sweetloukillbot
(10,962 posts)Cool story, bro
fescuerescue
(4,448 posts)If a coup occurred at the Presidential level?
Essentially I said that such a thing WILL NOT happen. But if it did it would be horrible. If Trump's followers did something horrible to Biden and Kamala, Portland would look like a fistfight.
For fun. Do some searches on when other countries have had a coup or attempted coup at the Presidential/Monarch/Dictator level and see how it turned out for the people of that country.
Heck look at how Iraq turned out when the US removed Hussein.
sweetloukillbot
(10,962 posts)And as awful as Trump is, he's not Hussein.
But keep up your fantasies that Trump's loss will trigger a Civil War and millions will be killed.
Because that's SURE to motivate people to vote.
Vote for Biden, you'll be killed!
Jesus Christ...
fescuerescue
(4,448 posts)We would never let a madman run our country.
Anyway don't mischaracterize what i wrote as a fantasy. Nor mischaracterize it as simply Trump losing. That's Bullshit man.
I'm talking about the case of where TRUMP attempts seizes power away from Biden in the form of a 2nd term AFTER trumps loses the election fair and square. That is clearly written in the post.
This is what will happen: Biden will win. Trump will return to NYC (or maybe Florida whatever). That's the 99.99% case.
What I wrote and what you didn't catch onto is that IF trump tried to takeover the Biden administration, it wouldn't be something that is handled like a speeding ticket as the article insinuates.
way to twist my words dude.
uponit7771
(90,301 posts)Demsrule86
(68,455 posts)one way or the other. Trump has a minority of support.
ailsagirl
(22,885 posts)Tiger8
(432 posts)Playing out "what will happen" scenarios are incredibly naive because they can't accurately predict opponents, which is the only reason why Trump is still in office.
Team Trump (and team Putin) already know every move in that article is a dead end, and crossed it off the list months or years ago. Psychopaths, in the tradition of Stephen Miller, Roger Stone, and Steve Bannon are likely working on a very novel strategy to stay in power, with creative plans A, B and C that might not be dead ends.
Psychopathic brains are wired differently. They have absolutely no conscience. Subverting democracy and stealing control of the most powerful country in the world is a huge ego trip - and the road to incredible wealth and domination, including power to legally ruin lives, spread terror and kill people.
obamanut2012
(26,041 posts)uponit7771
(90,301 posts)... STOP giving Trump the benefit of the doubt on ANYTHING ?!!?!
NeoGreen
(4,031 posts)...and I foresee the wacko militias start their gathering in late Nov/Dec as a big Harley rally.
Demsrule86
(68,455 posts)Trump will cease being president in January 2021...unless he wins the election which I view as unlikely.
fescuerescue
(4,448 posts)That didn't harm masses of people? Ever read of a case in history where a national leader refused to stop down and it was all settled with an arrest or some lawyers writing clever prose?
These things only happen when people stop respecting the rule of law, when the leader is so terrible that people stop respecting the rule of law, or there is no rule of law.
Let's be clear: I don't expect any of that to happen.
Im just saying that if we go down that road, what happens will not proceed orderly and to a recipe (which includes what i wrote). But it will be bad for everyone on the planet.
Bottom line: I agree with you. He will be out in January 2021.
Demsrule86
(68,455 posts)mahina
(17,612 posts)Im not afraid that he wont leave for the record but I think it does merit mention that coups l are chaotic, inherently, and that its obvious hes got a team of people coming out next steps who are aware of us. just take a look at the post office
uponit7771
(90,301 posts)uponit7771
(90,301 posts)...of thousands more Americans to stay in office.
Proud Liberal Dem
(24,391 posts)but no Democratic President has ever made any explicit (or even implicit) statements about trying to stay in power after their terms end and have always acceded to a peaceful transition of power. Trump has the dubious distinction of being the first President to talk about possibly refusing to leave.
Totally Tunsie
(10,885 posts)The election will be in 2024.
unblock
(52,113 posts)some people may be expressing the concern poorly, giving the wrong impression, but the concern isn't really that everyone accepts that donnie lost the election, but then on january 20 he refuses to leave the oval office. i agree that's a very simple scenario. biden becomes president on january 20 at noon, no matter where he is, and all the powers of the office transfer in that moment. donnie can be removed by force if need be.
the most real concern is if he doesn't accept the fact that he lost, and that between legal challenges and media arguments and propaganda, he casts doubt over the legitimacy of the election. there's still no problem few people believe him. if it just looks like typical donnie whining and lying, but people accept the biden won, again, there's no problem.
but if a substantial number of people believe him and seriously doubt the election results, then we do have a potential problem.
then it depends on which institutions fall for it and what they do. if there's a supreme court case and they decide to declare donnie the winner, we're probably screwed, as we were when they inexplicably halted the florida recount when shrub was slightly ahead for obviously biased reasons. if the media goes along with it and constantly calls the election results "disputed, fraught with fraud allegations" and question its legitimacy, we're probably also screwed.
donnie has given every indication that he will not go quietly, and that he will claim that any election he loses is fraudulent and he won't accept it. the real concern is if he can create enough chaos around the election to make people think he might be right.
zipplewrath
(16,646 posts)I agree, it's not about he refusing to leave. It is about him sewing enough doubt and getting the governors of republican states to create just enough chaos to allow them to pull off a victory in the congress after challenging the EC results. They've already started and ultimately between the SC and various states, it is slightly conceivable that they could succeed. Even if they don't, it will undermine the next administrations "first 100 days" immensely.
unblock
(52,113 posts)That was resolved after much negotiation by ending reconstruction in the south, clearing the way for ninety years of Jim Crow, the kkk, and other forms of racial oppression
If he gets to negotiate, what will it cost us this time?
Marcuse
(7,442 posts)Demsrule86
(68,455 posts)in the double digits by getting the vote out.
Stuart G
(38,410 posts)....For those 2 reasons alone, Trump will lose by "double digits"
....If I am correct about those to traits of Trump...?? then he will lose by double digits.....But do other
people see those traits?....Well Trump does ....NOT HIDE THEM, DOES HE?
(and that does not include the ....TOTAL LIAR....does it?)
Demsrule86
(68,455 posts)Stuart G
(38,410 posts)stupidity as well as his insensitive nature....that is...Donald Trump seems to care only about himself. And it is as plain & clear as a blue sky at noon on a totally clear day (no clouds) with full sunshine.
In this sort of black swan event, the "playbook" goes out the window quickly for all.
I'm cautiously optimistic that voter hatred for trump will overwhelm all the Republican/Russian interference in the election. But the reality is there will be a LOT of interference. And what would be an overwhelming landslide if the election was fair, will look like a close election. trump will seize that opportunity to cast every kind of doubt imaginable in the results, with the help of McConnell and Russia of course. If Biden/Harris don't absolutely crush trump on November 3, the three months that follow will be an absolute shitshow.
intrepidity
(7,272 posts)He's got a good full two months to set up whatever hellscape he decides upon. All manner of things can happen in that time.
It's naive to underestimate the hubris of one who knows no shame
flibbitygiblets
(7,220 posts)Not to add to the paranoia, but it's foolish not to think through the possibilities. What if he declares war Germany? Or China? Or California? If Trump and Russia aren't able to steal this election, Putin will lose his asset. So the only thing left to do would be to sow as much chaos as possible until 1/20/21.
What would Putin like to see happen? I think THAT'S the question we should be thinking about, and what are we going to do about it?
Yavin4
(35,420 posts)Trump is not the kind of guy that would barricade himself in the Oval office and go out guns blazing. That would require a level of courage which clearly he does not have.
No. I see Trump challenging the election results in various courts. Delay state certifications and the selection of electors to the electoral college. IOW, gum up the works in the courts starting the day after election day which stops the entire process from moving forward. Fatigue the electoral and legal processes until it gives in to him. The closer the results, the stronger his case will be.
Demsrule86
(68,455 posts)Yavin4
(35,420 posts)If the election is close, e.g. Biden wins by the same margins that Trump won in 2016, I see Trump challenging the results in the state courts which will stall the entire process.
Demsrule86
(68,455 posts)obamanut2012
(26,041 posts)Which will almost positively be Nancy Pelosi.
The process grinding to a halt in court doesn't mean he is still President. He syops being President at noon on January 20.
AC_Mem
(1,979 posts)if he is even in the state on Inauguration Day. I think he will have long left the WH and will be holed up somewhere licking his wounds through twitter rants.
What we need to be careful of is that he does not try to leave the country before New York has a chance to "speak" to him about several items of interest....
I just don't see him leaving with any class - if he does it will be very surprising.
TeamPooka
(24,204 posts)then Pence has to put on a brave face for the ceremonies.
Trump is intellectually and emotionally incapable of doing it.
fescuerescue
(4,448 posts)TommyCelt
(838 posts)...can't pardon state crimes.
TeamPooka
(24,204 posts)Which is why I said that New York is waiting for him
frogmarch
(12,153 posts)as Nancy Pelosi said, if we have to fumigate, we'll fumigate.
SidDithers
(44,228 posts)That's Congress, isn't it? Specifically, the Democratic House of Representatives?
My worry is that Republicans in Congress somehow try to fuck with the certification of the election results. If the results aren't certified, then maybe that calls into question who the legal President is on Jan 20 @ noon.
Sid
catrose
(5,059 posts)NNadir
(33,457 posts)...inciting insurrection to all the other charges he'll face.
colsohlibgal
(5,275 posts)What he does is a wild card. If he somehow sizes up something close to reality he may try to flee the Country.
ailsagirl
(22,885 posts)What concerns me is what his followers might do-- all those yahoos who think he's the best prez ever. They're not going to take defeat sitting down. They're loonies and loonies can be frightening if they're angry enough. And they're also fanatics. I'll stop there.
alittlelark
(18,888 posts)Interesting that he is trying to get an in-person meeting with Putin in the very near future. Turkey is another viable option.
Demsrule86
(68,455 posts)will go as he has no choice.
honest.abe
(8,610 posts)It could get a bit ugly but in the end he is out. There is no option for extending his term.
Demsrule86
(68,455 posts)ailsagirl
(22,885 posts)world wide wally
(21,734 posts)TeamPooka
(24,204 posts)mnmoderatedem
(3,721 posts)republican legislators refuse to certify election results in swing states where Biden won, because trump sez the election wuz rigged because of mail in ballots and other such bullshit. Therefore trump is still president.
That could get messy.
Demsrule86
(68,455 posts)tritsofme
(17,367 posts)of electoral votes, contingent elections would happen in the House and Senate to choose the president and vice president respectively.
The biggest wrinkle being each state delegation casts a single vote in the House. If the House fails to select a president, the vice president selected by the Senate becomes acting president. Only if the Senate also failed to select a vice president by 1/20 could Pelosi become acting president.
Sympthsical
(9,029 posts)The electoral college will meet. The President is whoever gets a majority of the electoral votes cast.
If Republican states dont have electors, it doesnt matter. Biden merely needs a majority of whos available.
GopherGal
(2,007 posts)... and who gets to manipulate which states those are that have no certified Electors.
The meeting of the Electoral College could theoretically be held with the red states having their electors in place, but the blue states not having theirs in place (either because red-led governors/legislators dragged out certification or republican lawsuit challenges to elector certification in blue states).
Sympthsical
(9,029 posts)Itd end up in the Supreme Court, and Roberts hates Trump. The whole Florida mess in 2000 was specifically because they wanted the electors in place on time.
If a Republican government in a blue state attempted anything, itd make the Womens March look like a church picnic. Its just not going to happen. Those politicians would rapidly find themselves out of jobs. They value their own skins more than they want to save Trump.
CaptainTruth
(6,572 posts)If Trump loses the election he becomes a private citizen on January 20 at noon. At that point he has no authority to command anyone to do anything. If he refuses to leave the White House, the Secret Service (who at that point will serve Joe Biden) will escort him off the grounds. Period.
ailsagirl
(22,885 posts)Larissa
(788 posts)When the clock strikes twelve noon, on January 20th Trump's chariot reverts to the orange pumpkin he rode in on. The fear that Trump can just declare himself president-for-life demonstrates what a number he's done on people's heads.
WyattKansas
(1,648 posts)When Secret Service is tasked with following him everywhere?
tRUMP's brain: My private plane will fly us to Russia. The squirrel in the wheel remains silent about Agent Mike staying with him at all times.
GopherGal
(2,007 posts)to lure him out of the Oval.
Or maybe Ivanka will be the bait.
EarnestPutz
(2,115 posts)....as the new Democratic Senate will have been sworn in more than two weeks earlier, on the third of January.
wryter2000
(46,023 posts)Wait until he goes out to play golf, and change the locks.
Or, turn off power to the Oval Office. Turn off the phones. Turn off the wifi. Could we block the cell tower that serves the Oval Office? If he can't tweet, he'll be out of there within hours.
generalbetrayus
(507 posts)up through January 20, 2021, then Trump would remain President. Is that true? (Legal scholars?) Wouldn't there in fact be a vacancy in the Presidency and Vice-Presidency? Under the normal order of Presidential succession, if there is a vacancy in the President's and Vice-President's offices, the Speaker of the House becomes acting President. If the election were still in dispute on January 20, would Nancy Pelosi become acting President?
Demsrule86
(68,455 posts)bucolic_frolic
(43,027 posts)God, get us to that place.
OMGWTF
(3,939 posts)Demsrule86
(68,455 posts)Operaweeble
(45 posts)malaise
(268,667 posts)Been saying that for ages - the system is way bigger than this colossal asshole.
And even more asinine comment was the one from two days ago when he spewed some shit about doing over the elections if he doesn't like the results.
This fucking semi-literate who knows nothing about anything thinks he's bigger than the entire system. he will learn.
Stuart G
(38,410 posts).... Further, if he pulls any crap like described in the OP, then he will lose all
dignity that comes with being a "retired President of the U.S."...He will not be interviewed, or put on
talk shows. (except for FOX, and they might exclude him if he pulls this stunt)
...Also, he will not be paid huge amounts to speak at events.. (and we all know Trump loves money, and he will need more money with the possibility of a divorce ??) No..the system will not allow this, and neither will his family. Trump will go on a long vacation to "no where land" if the family finds out that he is going to do this.
malaise
(268,667 posts)EarnestPutz
(2,115 posts)malaise
(268,667 posts)With that ego losing to Biden will be worse than the prison cell awaiting him.
Vivienne235729
(3,376 posts)ego_nation
(123 posts)his supporters. They will be the wild card, and Trump will have no qualms about putting out a call to action to them. Hes already alluded to it, and I think a great many of his supporters are ready to die on that hill. Im not worried that they will win, but I am worried about the bloodshed that takes place in our streets over it. I think were all familiar enough with their rhetoric to know this isnt a far-fetched scenario.
smirkymonkey
(63,221 posts)That they will not accept a Trump loss, and we know that most of them are unhinged enough to kill over it.
jumptheshadow
(3,269 posts)No caffeine and no meds except for those that will sustain life.
Block all communications.
He'll come out voluntarily at some point with his teeth chattering.
paul91046
(11 posts)it's the time between november 3 and january 20 that should scare the shit out of everyone. SCARE THE SHIT OUT OF EVERONE. do you think he'll behave rationally? he'll still have the nuclear codes. gulp....
chowder66
(9,046 posts)They can deny illegal orders. They will look into it but they won't jump to launch and could completely ignore the order.
I think the concern would be more like Trump asking Putin over the phone to launch missiles at us if he loses and he declares emergency presidential powers.
I could be way off on this so I hope someone smarter than me will add to this or correct my thinking.
not_the_one
(2,227 posts)Well, we ALL know that the word "shall" is nothing more than a suggestion (see tax returns), and can be completely ignored. It doesn't mean squat.
I suppose we will have to see if enough goons have been moved into military leadership control to say they agree. Or they could just say "meh".
Then the REAL cultural war will start. And there will be nothing "civil" about it.
Paladin
(28,243 posts)You think trump and his psychotic base can't figure a way around this? If you do, you haven't been paying attention.
Warpy
(111,124 posts)with video from many angles. I want him deposited at the curb along with all his tacky possessions, Ivanka with her cell phone frantically calling moving companies before the skies open up.
Failing that, I want him rolled to a chopper and onto AF2, flown to Moscow, where he will be rolled down the emergency chute and onto the tarmac. The chute will be cut loose, the plane secured, and flown back to the US. Let Putin deal with him, he wanted him so badly.
Mostly, I just want him GONE. I can dream, though.
C Moon
(12,208 posts)Immediately, Trump, Barr, McConnell, etc will start legal battles that will make the 2000 election look like a cakewalk.
After a while, when Trump sees there's no point, he'll disappear to Russia or a country that will refuse extradition.
If he stays, I do believe he'll end up in prison along with many others.
Duppers
(28,117 posts)He will be of no use to them then and his assets will probably be frozen if he leaves for S. America, etc. because of various pending criminal trials.
My take anyway.
jimlup
(7,968 posts)That is where the dangers lie and remember that during this time Trump is the "Commander and Chief" and thus he welds power to disrupt. What could he disrupt that make the events on January 20th NO what as setup and described above.
That is the key question.
Cha
(296,780 posts)me feel much better!
ailsagirl
(22,885 posts)And that it is being taken very seriously.
Cha
(296,780 posts)mouth, that he can't keep shut.. we know he & his wrecking crew will do anything to stay in power. They're destroying Everything.
Our job Collectively is to Vote Biden & Harris IN!
ailsagirl
(22,885 posts)BComplex
(8,017 posts)where nobody knows what the right vote count is, and trump, via Bill Barr and Mitch McConnell start playing legal games that really mess up the ability of states to give a good tally. He will try to keep it in the courts forever, but especially handing it to the supreme court.
DrToast
(6,414 posts)The concern is not that he won't leave, the concern is that he'll gin up some bullshit election fraud charges and fight the election results in court.
Now, whether or not that is likely is another story, but THAT is what people are concerned about. We know he can't just say, "I'm not leaving."
no_hypocrisy
(46,017 posts)Pence? Barr? Jared? Kellyanne?
muntrv
(14,505 posts)I see him filing lawsuits demanding recounts and trying to stop states from certifying the election for Biden.
Amaryllis
(9,524 posts)LastLiberal in PalmSprings
(12,563 posts)and the valid ones would be in the "football" in possession of a different officer standing near President Biden.
Whether or not Trump concedes is immaterial. If he loses, his stuff gets kicked to the curb if he doesn't leave the WH peacefully.
I do not expect him to attend Biden's inauguration. He'll just sit in front of a television and rage tweet, starting with "My crowd was the BIGGEST CROWD EVER!!!" His is pathetic.
I want to crowd fund a project to surround Mar-A-Lago with billboards with Trump's face and the word "LOSER!" displayed in huge letters. Also paint "A LOSER LIVES HERE" on the road in front of his club.
pansypoo53219
(20,952 posts)Cosmocat
(14,558 posts)The concern if is the Rs back his play to rat fuck the results, to derail congressional approval, etc.
Of course if it gets to inauguration day he won't be able to live in the broom closet.
The concern is what happens in between election night and then.
If anyone thinks he will NOT spend two months desperately spinning around and wreaking havoc ...