Covid Case Fatality Rate and how Donald Trump and his spokesmodel are Fucking Liars.

[Alex4Martinez]

The NY Times agrees that these are lies.

Trump: "99% of U.S. coronavirus infections are “totally harmless."
McEneny: 99% will "come out the other side"

Truth: Among 100 cases, we can expect between 4 and 5 deaths.

Add to these the numbers who might be hospitalized, intubated, made sick for weeks and/or have lifelong debilitation conditions.
These additional percentages cannot be determined this early.



https://ourworldindata.org/mortality-risk-covid?country=~USA

[Hoyt]

1. trump's "99%" is absolute BS. But, death rate depends on whether we believe those who say actual

infection rate is 20 to 40 times what has been confirmed by testing.

If it's really 40 Million cases, then the death rate is roughly 0.375%. That's still a lot.

Honestly, I don't think anyone knows, even the so-called experts. In any event, trump has totally mismanaged and failed to encourage people to take the proper steps to minimize serious illness and death.

[ProfessorGAC]

2. CDC Says 8 to 10 Times

So, even then the rate is at least 0.45%. That's even worse than your number.
I know the "how many people really are infected" is just a best guess.
8 to 10 times, 20 to 40 times; not really dramatic a difference.
It's still at least 20x H1N1.

[Hoyt]

4. I used 150K deaths and 3 Million confirmed cases from testing. But, less than 1% death rate is

much better than earlier predictions.

To be clear, I'm not saying 1% is acceptable or anything similar.

[ProfessorGAC]

6. No, No, I'm Right With You!

You & I agree totally.
H1N1 infected (best estimate) 62 million Americans.
12,600 (official) died with 6,800 potentially connected.
This is 2 in 10,000.
If you & I used that with the 30,000,000 you had in your first post, we'd have 6,000 dead. We have 130,000 dead. More than 21x.
Unlike PINO, we can do the math!

[Alex4Martinez]

13. The number dead come weeks later than the number confirmed.

Right now Florida has 206,000 cases, half of which were recorded in just the last two weeks.

Florida reports 3,778 deaths at this moment, close to 2% death rate not including those among the 200K who have not yet died.

I'm sure you know what I mean even if I'm not expressing it well.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/early-coronavirus-numbers-for-july-are-grim/ar-BB16oSrl?li=BBnb7Kz

[Hoyt]

14. If you believe the pundits, even on our side, those infected

are at least 10 times the number confirmed by test. Some so-called experts have said 20 to 40 times more. Whether it’s 10, 40, or more, that would reduce the real death rate significantly.

Personally, I find a lower seat rate encouraging. Whatever, none of that reduces trump’s culpability and failures.

[MoonlitKnight]

3. Even if he was correct

That translates to over 3 million dead Americans.

[Bernardo de La Paz]

5. Deaths much higher. Most manipulated stat during this crisis, but Excess Deaths will show toll.

Distrust all statistics based on current official death tolls, especially from Russia, Florida, and Texas.

[ProfessorGAC]

7. Insurance Companies Are Freaking Out

I know a few actuaries at 3 different big companies.
Not identical, of course, but they all used a guesstimate of 30,000+/- "unanticipated" deaths.
They're looking at more like 180,000. There's only 130,000 official COVID deaths.
They're paying out on LI policies at nearly 40% above the COVID rate and 6x the model expectations.
They have no political reason to be freaking out.
They're freaking out because even more people are dying than reported.

[uponit7771]

9. +1, I wish insurance companies would share the numbers because they would know if

... that's weird higher overall this year then the last 5 to 10 years

[ProfessorGAC]

11. According To My Pals...

...it's WAY higher.
The 30,000 or so "unanticipated" in their tables is based on history, including the probability of mass disease.
According to them, they normally overstate the number so short term investments (line of credit lending), LTI, and cash flow can be properly managed.
So, 30k is an overestimate, on purpose, and they're 150k off.
The guys I know are flummoxed. They're proud professionals who don't like being this wrong.
All 3 of them are pretty confused how to model in the future.
One of them retires EOY, so he'll get over it. The other 2 are still in their mid-50s. They've got some cleanup to do!

[struggle4progress]

10. Excess deaths matter in these calculations

[uponit7771]

8. K&R, somehow being hospitalized with cv-19 is a good thing to them

[Brainfodder]

12. Misery rate of at least 25%?

Once I heard some have to have oxygen tanks for life after, UH OH!

THIS IS SERIOUS!

Good Luck!