General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsIf Biden wins Florida, game over.
I have been looking at the electoral college map. If Biden wins Florida all he will have to do is win one of the states that Clinton lost by a total of 78,000 votes, Pennsylvania, Michigan or Wisconsin.
Biden is also doing well in Arizona. Biden will probably win all the states Clinton won. Trump probably will not pick up any new states. All the pressure is on the Trump campaign, that's why they freaking out.
If Biden wins Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, loses Florida, he only needs to win one other state that Clinton lost to win.
Eliot Rosewater
(31,097 posts)5% more than the amount needed to win, because experts say that is the average amount the GOP always steals in every election thru old fashioned dirty tricks, voter suppression and outright ballot box tampering which they do all the time.
So if you think you need 5,000,001 to win, you dont, you need 5,500,000 votes to win...
Takket
(21,425 posts)we have to get the additional votes in the correct places since the electoral college is rigged to provide GOP candidates with more electoral votes for less voters....... as in the famous contrast to how much more valuable an electoral vote is in Wyoming than California in terms of population per electoral vote.
Eliot Rosewater
(31,097 posts)Takket
(21,425 posts)put some pressure on the GOP to vote for this. the public wants it gone. Even if it doesn't pass you can make the GOP go on record in favor of a system that allows them to literally cheat.
and i know people will say "the GOP will never support it because they need to cheat to win!" and yeah, that is probably going to be true in 2021...........
but they are facing some harsh realities in the coming years..........
They usually win florida by razor thin margins, but Florida restored voting rights to ex-cons that have served their time and the courts struck down deSantis's attempts at a poll tax. A lot of people angry about excessive sentencing targeting the poor and minorities in Florida and the poll tax are going to be heading to the voting booth this year.
MI and PA now have excuse free mail in voting options
Texas is pink and biden is leading in some polls. and you can bet a blue congress is finally going to get path to citizenship done meaning a LOT of people in Texas that are good enough to pick our crops, clean out hotel rooms and pay taxes, but not good enough to vote, are going to finally turn what in reality is a blue-disenfranchised red state to its true color possibly as soon as 2024!
and if Texas and Florida are blue, the GOP can't just sit around hoping to rig the electoral college anymore to rule from the minority, and it would probably be in their OWN best interest to do away with it and try to fight for the popular vote on the 50 state level...
I am hopeful.......
EndlessWire
(6,377 posts)radius777
(3,624 posts)As long as the system is weighted towards 'empty white states' - it's basically taxation without representation - and will always be backward.
The Senate is terrible - was never intended to have the national role it does (and confirms SCOTUS which also has an outsized national role that was never intended). Mini-nations like CA, NY and even TX get the same two 'national voices' that empty rural states do.
shockey80
(4,379 posts)Trump beat Clinton by a narrow margin in Florida. Florida will be tough with all the cheating, no doubt, but the Governor of Florida is a fucking idiot who could help Biden win by the way he is handling the pandemic.
EndlessWire
(6,377 posts)they are trying to open the door to felons voting. Make people who can't vote grateful to them. I hope this backfires on them. You can't tell me they give a shit about felons getting to vote.
tableturner
(1,676 posts)krawhitham
(4,634 posts)TALLAHASSEE, Fla. -- A federal judge in Tallahassee ruled Sunday night that Florida law can't stop felons from voting because they can't pay back any legal fees and restitution they owe.
In a 125-page ruling, U.S. District Judge Robert Hinkle called the law passed by the Florida Legislature and signed by Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis last year a pay-to-vote system.
Hinkle's order called court fees a tax and said it creates a new system for determining whether felons are eligible to vote.
https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/wireStory/fed-judge-rules-florida-stop-poor-felons-voting-70867064
EndlessWire
(6,377 posts)The GOP is trying to have their cake and eat it, too. They are trying to confuse this GOP law that DeSantis signed and preserve this issue in order to appeal to the SC if Trump loses Florida.
All the most important legislators are Repub in Florida. Florida is a take all battleground state. That is why both parties appear to want this legislation, legislation which has other legislation surrounding it.
Judge Hinckle has struck down that part of Florida SB 7066 which required felons to pay their monetary punishments before they can REGISTER to vote. But, this law and ruling will probably be appealed.
OrlandoDem2
(2,064 posts)The government controlled restoration of the franchise to felons and it was an extremely Byzantine, onerous process.
The GOP decided to make more Byzantine rules to negate the Amendment voted by the citizens because statistically, POC were disenfranchised the most. No one knows who it Amendment 4 will benefit but most believe itll help the Democrats....if they target minorities, register them, and get them to vote. The Democratic Party of FL is mostly inept.
EndlessWire
(6,377 posts)this being an action to preserve the GOP right to appeal this decision, in case Trump loses Florida, a battleground state.
They have little to lose. If they lost the ruling, then they have an issue to appeal. If they won, then they get to suppress the vote.
GulfCoast66
(11,949 posts)Republicans fought this from being on the ballot and have fought it since.
The people of Florida gave them the right to vote. The Democratic Party supported it.
EndlessWire
(6,377 posts)"Lawyers for those states wrote that if DeSantis loses his case, it could cause states to stop allowing felons to vote altogether. They noted that federal courts have ruled that states are not required to allow any convicted felons to vote ever. Miami Herald
So, Florida can appeal all the way to the Supreme Court. Meanwhile, those Republican States that allow felons to vote presently can simply legislate those rights into the corn field. Problem solved.
One thing is clear: the Florida system is FUBAR. It might take them years to fix it.
Wellstone ruled
(34,661 posts)badly the Rethugs screw up the Economy from now to October. What is the Rethug October Surprise? Big bailout checks on or before the 1 st. Rove Ain't hanging around for a free Buffet.
pecosbob
(7,511 posts)No way the economy recovers by November...
Wellstone ruled
(34,661 posts)ballgame. Here in Vegas,we will be paying the price for at least five years. Everyone looks at the Market numbers which mean diddly squat,it is the numbers of unemployed at the end of the day.
Rove is not hanging around for nothing. Neither is the Mercer Family. Some type of Voter Suppression think is in the mix.
pecosbob
(7,511 posts)Wellstone ruled
(34,661 posts)are voted out of office by a massive percentage.
lark
(23,003 posts)RIck Scott got the legislature to not count a box with many thousands of ballots because it got hidden/forgotten at a post office in Broward (major blue area in state) county. I could go on and on with their anti-democratic acts over the past 30 years, but am just tired of these sick fucks at this moment.
uponit7771
(90,225 posts)... forward.
The voting laws in America need to be changed otherwise none of what Americans want matters
aeromanKC
(3,307 posts)In your last sentence scenario, Biden WINS!! (No other state needed if he wins WI, MI, and PA) My count gives him 278. 279 if he wins NE 2. Seems in last few polls, Biden is ahead more in AZ than in WI. Either works. But hey, we'll take em both!!
Zoonart
(11,750 posts)Val Demings.
jcgoldie
(11,584 posts)peggysue2
(10,811 posts)We concentrate on the swing states. Win there, we take the ballgame. Take Florida? It'll be a blowout. And right now that's an actual possibility with reports of senior voters, primarily senior female voters, turning away from Trump.
At the moment, Biden's running ahead in many of these swing states. He needs to hold the support and build from there. Bigger the margin the better because the GOP and Trumphumpers will be pulling out all the stops. They're very vulnerable and they know it.
Which is why we keep pounding with the simple fact that Trump and his enablers are killing the country every day, every minute, every second. No need to exaggerate or make things up. Merely need to use their own words and actions.
Donald Trump: Most Corrupt, Incompetent President in American history. Republicans: Donald Trump's Willing Enablers.
Vote them out in November or vote away your future.
brooklynite
(93,878 posts)Demsrule86
(68,352 posts)gone blue recently do so...not to many president manage to kill as many people as Trump will have by November and cause a great depression...I think this could be a realignment election. Biden is ahead in the polls I have seen in both Florida and Arizona...and was three points ahead in Georgia. He is leading in the blue wall states as well.
Cosmocat
(14,543 posts)Demsrule86
(68,352 posts)Tennessee Hillbilly
(575 posts)And it was Biden who did most of the campaigning there in both of those elections. So he knows the state pretty well.
Sancho
(9,065 posts)...so unless there's a way to have a fair election, MF45 will win again....
- the registrations are rigged
- the DREs flip votes
- the poll workers harass Democrats
- mail in ballots disappear
- chads hang
- ballot designs are manipulated
- poll stations are moved, closed, and inaccessible in Democratic precincts
MF 45 doesn't want mail in ballots because they leave a paper trail and can be recounted.
There are more Democratic registrations, but it's not going to happen unless the margin is so large that cheating won't help.
flamingdem
(39,304 posts)since it's legal there - correct?
Sancho
(9,065 posts)but a lot of ballots never made it to the election supervisor in 2016. You have to mail them early, or drop them off yourself, and then check on line to see if the ballot was counted.
Freakin sucks. Florida has been in play for 20 years and we mostly lose it, due to this cheating garbage
flamingdem
(39,304 posts)DeSantis has been terrible and it's clear the repugs don't care about the elderly dying from Covid in droves.
We could peel off a good portion if we can get them away from Faux News for five minutes.
Friday the 14th
(14 posts)The big prize.
Celerity
(42,670 posts)is wrong.
He doesn't need to win anything else, as long as he holds the 2016 Blue states. Those 3 flips (WI, PA, MI) alone are enough.
In fact, he can lose ONE of either NV or NH and still win. He can even lose BOTH NV and NH and still win IF he flips ME2 AND NE-2.
He also can lose WI, hold the rest, and still win IF he flips BOTH NE-2 and ME-2. (Remember we lose a 269-269 tie as the Rethugs will have 26 (or more) House delegations in 99% of all scenarios, due to their WI and FL gerrymandering)
Win WI, MI, PA, lose NV
Win WI, MI, PA, lose NH
Win WI, MI, PA, lose BOTH NH and NV, but flip ME-2 AND NE-2
He also can lose NV, NH, AND WI, but still wins as long as he flips AZ plus ONE of ME-2 or NE-2
flips ME-2, loses NE-2
flips NE-2, loses ME-2
ancianita
(35,816 posts)Brainfodder
(6,423 posts)#1 Corrupt AF and most sensible people know it and will make a very reasonable effort to vote against that, and we out number the rest!
#2 Can't ignore all the deaths and by then 90% of citizens that can vote will be within 3 steps of someone who has died from Covid-19?
Don't need a longer list?
Yavin4
(35,357 posts)That's his default path to the presidency. Force Trump's campaign to use it resources to hold onto FLA, AZ, and GA.
Celerity
(42,670 posts)my 'a gun to my head' map atm
we can lose FL or FL plus AZ, or AZ plus PA (NV and NH are more solid than FL, AZ, or PA IMHO) and still win
we can lose AZ, PA and either NV or NH (not both) and still win, as long as we win FL, even if we flip nothing else on the map
Yavin4
(35,357 posts)I don't feel great about any state with a Republican governor with the exceptions of MD and MASS.
Celerity
(42,670 posts)A-A's are the hardest to GOTV out of all the big Rust Belt cities.
We can lose AZ, WI, PA and either NH or NV and still win anyway.
FL is a massive key. So is MI, and then just one of NV or NH
Win those 3, Trump is done
No realistic path
We can lose ALL of NE-2, ME-2, AZ, TX, KS, WI, PA, NC, GA, IN, OH, IA, MO, AK, and one of NV or NH and still win
there is no chance we win FL and yet lose VA
and no chance we win MI yet lose MN
CO and NM are even more in the Blue column
Yavin4
(35,357 posts)DeSantis will steal the ballots himself if need be. FLA is the most corrupt state in the union.
Drahthaardogs
(6,843 posts)If you see NC go to Biden early in the night, its all over but the crying for the Trumpster.
DFW
(54,057 posts)If Biden wins Florida, and Florida ACKNOWLEDGES that Biden won Florida, THEN you can say game over.
If that seems contradictory, ask Al Gore what I meant.....
pecosbob
(7,511 posts)"If Trump wins Florida it's over"...but then he also has to win another state, so then, by definition, it's not 'over.'
Anyway, my impression is that Trump has to win all of those swing states mentioned to triumph...Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, and he still would have to take a state that went blue last time.
GulfCoast66
(11,949 posts)Biden will win here. Especially with an African American female on the ticket.
zak247
(251 posts)Actually Florida 29 elec votes plus Pennsylvania 20 elec votes would put him over early on election day.
Hillary had 232 plus 49 = 281 at least and that would win. So if Biden wins all of Hillary states plus Fl and Penn Biden wins with 281 elec college votes at least
Of course assuming he wins all of Hillary states( 232) then if he gets Wisconsin Ohio, Michigan, and Pennsylvania and Florida its much bigger
Hamlette
(15,394 posts)Penn belongs to us and Ohio because I am vindictive