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shockey80

(4,379 posts)
Mon May 25, 2020, 12:26 PM May 2020

If Biden wins Florida, game over.

I have been looking at the electoral college map. If Biden wins Florida all he will have to do is win one of the states that Clinton lost by a total of 78,000 votes, Pennsylvania, Michigan or Wisconsin.

Biden is also doing well in Arizona. Biden will probably win all the states Clinton won. Trump probably will not pick up any new states. All the pressure is on the Trump campaign, that's why they freaking out.

If Biden wins Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, loses Florida, he only needs to win one other state that Clinton lost to win.

53 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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If Biden wins Florida, game over. (Original Post) shockey80 May 2020 OP
The trick is to get 5% more votes, so if there are 10 million votes the D has to have Eliot Rosewater May 2020 #1
and also......... Takket May 2020 #6
We really need to start over, EC has to go, make up of the Senate, etc. Eliot Rosewater May 2020 #7
i'm hoping a blue congress takes this up next year...... Takket May 2020 #9
I agree. n/t EndlessWire May 2020 #12
Agree, otherwise no structural change will occur. radius777 May 2020 #52
If Biden wins Florida, I believe we will see a blow out election. shockey80 May 2020 #8
I think this is why EndlessWire May 2020 #13
The Dems are trying to give felons the vote, NOT GOP. GOP trying to stop them. tableturner May 2020 #14
Fed judge rules Florida can't stop poor felons from voting krawhitham May 2020 #28
Dems are divided on this. EndlessWire May 2020 #48
The people voted to restore felons' voting rights. The government did not. OrlandoDem2 May 2020 #15
My money is on EndlessWire May 2020 #49
That just not factually correct. GulfCoast66 May 2020 #43
The Dems were divided in their opinions. EndlessWire May 2020 #50
All depends on how Wellstone ruled May 2020 #2
The single biggest determinant factor in a president's re-election is the economy pecosbob May 2020 #40
The Economy is the big Wellstone ruled May 2020 #42
I agree...there must be a plan B...plan A doesn't appear to working so well pecosbob May 2020 #45
Nothing changes until the Rethugs Wellstone ruled May 2020 #46
FL is, however, a Repug voting stealing machine. lark May 2020 #3
We need to win controlling share of senate also and change the rules otherwise we're screwed going uponit7771 May 2020 #4
Biden Wins!! aeromanKC May 2020 #5
Two words... Zoonart May 2020 #10
Here here! jcgoldie May 2020 #16
Yep! Zoonart May 2020 #17
The EC is not going anywhere for 2020 peggysue2 May 2020 #11
Yes, but I'm seeing no sign that Florida is in play. brooklynite May 2020 #18
Biden is ahead in Florida...I think we will be surprised this year too when states that have not Demsrule86 May 2020 #20
It's in play Cosmocat May 2020 #22
If we win Wisconsin, MI and PA...we win period...we don't need one more state. Demsrule86 May 2020 #19
The Obama-Biden ticket won Florida twice ... Tennessee Hillbilly May 2020 #21
Here in Florida the repubs have been cheating since 2000.... Sancho May 2020 #23
Mail in voting needs to be encouraged flamingdem May 2020 #25
Yes...I always vote by mail... Sancho May 2020 #26
This RANDYWILDMAN May 2020 #29
The Florida seniors - maybe via AARP - need to be engaged! flamingdem May 2020 #24
True. Lots of electoral college votes Friday the 14th May 2020 #27
your maths are off Celerity May 2020 #30
Thank you. I'm saving this post to keep my head clear in the coming months. ancianita May 2020 #31
yw Celerity May 2020 #32
By November if he wins 1 state, I will be surprised? Brainfodder May 2020 #33
Biden's win code: Hillary states + PA-WI-MI Yavin4 May 2020 #34
I feel better about AZ atm than WI, WI is so fucking corrupt, so are NC and GA Celerity May 2020 #36
PA-Wi-MI all have Dem governors. AZ has a Republican governor. Yavin4 May 2020 #38
WI's governor is neutered by ultra RW Assembly, Senate, and WI Supreme Court, plus Milwaukee Celerity May 2020 #39
Do not count on FLA. It's going to Trump no matter what. Yavin4 May 2020 #47
If/when Biden wins PA, MI, and WI, it is all but over for Trump Drahthaardogs May 2020 #35
Not quite DFW May 2020 #37
Doesn't your OP go on to contradict your premise? pecosbob May 2020 #41
Obama won Florida twice. GulfCoast66 May 2020 #44
Needs to win Pennsylvania too zak247 May 2020 #51
I want Ohio and Pennsylvania. Hamlette May 2020 #53

Eliot Rosewater

(31,097 posts)
1. The trick is to get 5% more votes, so if there are 10 million votes the D has to have
Mon May 25, 2020, 12:32 PM
May 2020

5% more than the amount needed to win, because experts say that is the average amount the GOP always steals in every election thru old fashioned dirty tricks, voter suppression and outright ballot box tampering which they do all the time.

So if you think you need 5,000,001 to win, you dont, you need 5,500,000 votes to win...

Takket

(21,425 posts)
6. and also.........
Mon May 25, 2020, 12:36 PM
May 2020

we have to get the additional votes in the correct places since the electoral college is rigged to provide GOP candidates with more electoral votes for less voters....... as in the famous contrast to how much more valuable an electoral vote is in Wyoming than California in terms of population per electoral vote.

Takket

(21,425 posts)
9. i'm hoping a blue congress takes this up next year......
Mon May 25, 2020, 12:52 PM
May 2020

put some pressure on the GOP to vote for this. the public wants it gone. Even if it doesn't pass you can make the GOP go on record in favor of a system that allows them to literally cheat.

and i know people will say "the GOP will never support it because they need to cheat to win!" and yeah, that is probably going to be true in 2021...........

but they are facing some harsh realities in the coming years..........

They usually win florida by razor thin margins, but Florida restored voting rights to ex-cons that have served their time and the courts struck down deSantis's attempts at a poll tax. A lot of people angry about excessive sentencing targeting the poor and minorities in Florida and the poll tax are going to be heading to the voting booth this year.

MI and PA now have excuse free mail in voting options

Texas is pink and biden is leading in some polls. and you can bet a blue congress is finally going to get path to citizenship done meaning a LOT of people in Texas that are good enough to pick our crops, clean out hotel rooms and pay taxes, but not good enough to vote, are going to finally turn what in reality is a blue-disenfranchised red state to its true color possibly as soon as 2024!

and if Texas and Florida are blue, the GOP can't just sit around hoping to rig the electoral college anymore to rule from the minority, and it would probably be in their OWN best interest to do away with it and try to fight for the popular vote on the 50 state level...

I am hopeful.......

radius777

(3,624 posts)
52. Agree, otherwise no structural change will occur.
Tue May 26, 2020, 01:17 AM
May 2020

As long as the system is weighted towards 'empty white states' - it's basically taxation without representation - and will always be backward.

The Senate is terrible - was never intended to have the national role it does (and confirms SCOTUS which also has an outsized national role that was never intended). Mini-nations like CA, NY and even TX get the same two 'national voices' that empty rural states do.

 

shockey80

(4,379 posts)
8. If Biden wins Florida, I believe we will see a blow out election.
Mon May 25, 2020, 12:41 PM
May 2020

Trump beat Clinton by a narrow margin in Florida. Florida will be tough with all the cheating, no doubt, but the Governor of Florida is a fucking idiot who could help Biden win by the way he is handling the pandemic.

EndlessWire

(6,377 posts)
13. I think this is why
Mon May 25, 2020, 01:42 PM
May 2020

they are trying to open the door to felons voting. Make people who can't vote grateful to them. I hope this backfires on them. You can't tell me they give a shit about felons getting to vote.

krawhitham

(4,634 posts)
28. Fed judge rules Florida can't stop poor felons from voting
Mon May 25, 2020, 03:34 PM
May 2020
https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/wireStory/fed-judge-rules-florida-stop-poor-felons-voting-70867064

TALLAHASSEE, Fla. -- A federal judge in Tallahassee ruled Sunday night that Florida law can't stop felons from voting because they can't pay back any legal fees and restitution they owe.

In a 125-page ruling, U.S. District Judge Robert Hinkle called the law passed by the Florida Legislature and signed by Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis last year a “pay-to-vote system.”

Hinkle's order called court fees a tax and said it creates a new system for determining whether felons are eligible to vote.


https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/wireStory/fed-judge-rules-florida-stop-poor-felons-voting-70867064

EndlessWire

(6,377 posts)
48. Dems are divided on this.
Mon May 25, 2020, 11:30 PM
May 2020

The GOP is trying to have their cake and eat it, too. They are trying to confuse this GOP law that DeSantis signed and preserve this issue in order to appeal to the SC if Trump loses Florida.

All the most important legislators are Repub in Florida. Florida is a take all battleground state. That is why both parties appear to want this legislation, legislation which has other legislation surrounding it.

Judge Hinckle has struck down that part of Florida SB 7066 which required felons to pay their monetary punishments before they can REGISTER to vote. But, this law and ruling will probably be appealed.

OrlandoDem2

(2,064 posts)
15. The people voted to restore felons' voting rights. The government did not.
Mon May 25, 2020, 02:06 PM
May 2020

The government controlled restoration of the franchise to felons and it was an extremely Byzantine, onerous process.

The GOP decided to make more Byzantine rules to negate the Amendment voted by the citizens because statistically, POC were disenfranchised the most. No one knows who it Amendment 4 will benefit but most believe it’ll help the Democrats....if they target minorities, register them, and get them to vote. The Democratic Party of FL is mostly inept.

EndlessWire

(6,377 posts)
49. My money is on
Mon May 25, 2020, 11:34 PM
May 2020

this being an action to preserve the GOP right to appeal this decision, in case Trump loses Florida, a battleground state.

They have little to lose. If they lost the ruling, then they have an issue to appeal. If they won, then they get to suppress the vote.

GulfCoast66

(11,949 posts)
43. That just not factually correct.
Mon May 25, 2020, 08:54 PM
May 2020

Republicans fought this from being on the ballot and have fought it since.

The people of Florida gave them the right to vote. The Democratic Party supported it.

EndlessWire

(6,377 posts)
50. The Dems were divided in their opinions.
Tue May 26, 2020, 12:02 AM
May 2020

"Lawyers for those states wrote that if DeSantis loses his case, it could cause states to stop allowing felons to vote altogether. They noted that federal courts have ruled that states “are not required to allow any convicted felons to vote — ever.” Miami Herald

So, Florida can appeal all the way to the Supreme Court. Meanwhile, those Republican States that allow felons to vote presently can simply legislate those rights into the corn field. Problem solved.

One thing is clear: the Florida system is FUBAR. It might take them years to fix it.

 

Wellstone ruled

(34,661 posts)
2. All depends on how
Mon May 25, 2020, 12:33 PM
May 2020

badly the Rethugs screw up the Economy from now to October. What is the Rethug October Surprise? Big bailout checks on or before the 1 st. Rove Ain't hanging around for a free Buffet.

pecosbob

(7,511 posts)
40. The single biggest determinant factor in a president's re-election is the economy
Mon May 25, 2020, 07:57 PM
May 2020

No way the economy recovers by November...

 

Wellstone ruled

(34,661 posts)
42. The Economy is the big
Mon May 25, 2020, 08:51 PM
May 2020

ballgame. Here in Vegas,we will be paying the price for at least five years. Everyone looks at the Market numbers which mean diddly squat,it is the numbers of unemployed at the end of the day.

Rove is not hanging around for nothing. Neither is the Mercer Family. Some type of Voter Suppression think is in the mix.

lark

(23,003 posts)
3. FL is, however, a Repug voting stealing machine.
Mon May 25, 2020, 12:33 PM
May 2020

RIck Scott got the legislature to not count a box with many thousands of ballots because it got hidden/forgotten at a post office in Broward (major blue area in state) county. I could go on and on with their anti-democratic acts over the past 30 years, but am just tired of these sick fucks at this moment.

uponit7771

(90,225 posts)
4. We need to win controlling share of senate also and change the rules otherwise we're screwed going
Mon May 25, 2020, 12:34 PM
May 2020

... forward.

The voting laws in America need to be changed otherwise none of what Americans want matters

aeromanKC

(3,307 posts)
5. Biden Wins!!
Mon May 25, 2020, 12:35 PM
May 2020

In your last sentence scenario, Biden WINS!! (No other state needed if he wins WI, MI, and PA) My count gives him 278. 279 if he wins NE 2. Seems in last few polls, Biden is ahead more in AZ than in WI. Either works. But hey, we'll take em both!!

peggysue2

(10,811 posts)
11. The EC is not going anywhere for 2020
Mon May 25, 2020, 01:24 PM
May 2020

We concentrate on the swing states. Win there, we take the ballgame. Take Florida? It'll be a blowout. And right now that's an actual possibility with reports of senior voters, primarily senior female voters, turning away from Trump.

At the moment, Biden's running ahead in many of these swing states. He needs to hold the support and build from there. Bigger the margin the better because the GOP and Trumphumpers will be pulling out all the stops. They're very vulnerable and they know it.

Which is why we keep pounding with the simple fact that Trump and his enablers are killing the country every day, every minute, every second. No need to exaggerate or make things up. Merely need to use their own words and actions.

Donald Trump: Most Corrupt, Incompetent President in American history. Republicans: Donald Trump's Willing Enablers.

Vote them out in November or vote away your future.

Demsrule86

(68,352 posts)
20. Biden is ahead in Florida...I think we will be surprised this year too when states that have not
Mon May 25, 2020, 03:11 PM
May 2020

gone blue recently do so...not to many president manage to kill as many people as Trump will have by November and cause a great depression...I think this could be a realignment election. Biden is ahead in the polls I have seen in both Florida and Arizona...and was three points ahead in Georgia. He is leading in the blue wall states as well.

21. The Obama-Biden ticket won Florida twice ...
Mon May 25, 2020, 03:20 PM
May 2020

And it was Biden who did most of the campaigning there in both of those elections. So he knows the state pretty well.

Sancho

(9,065 posts)
23. Here in Florida the repubs have been cheating since 2000....
Mon May 25, 2020, 03:22 PM
May 2020

...so unless there's a way to have a fair election, MF45 will win again....

- the registrations are rigged
- the DREs flip votes
- the poll workers harass Democrats
- mail in ballots disappear
- chads hang
- ballot designs are manipulated
- poll stations are moved, closed, and inaccessible in Democratic precincts

MF 45 doesn't want mail in ballots because they leave a paper trail and can be recounted.

There are more Democratic registrations, but it's not going to happen unless the margin is so large that cheating won't help.

Sancho

(9,065 posts)
26. Yes...I always vote by mail...
Mon May 25, 2020, 03:27 PM
May 2020

but a lot of ballots never made it to the election supervisor in 2016. You have to mail them early, or drop them off yourself, and then check on line to see if the ballot was counted.

RANDYWILDMAN

(2,645 posts)
29. This
Mon May 25, 2020, 03:37 PM
May 2020

Freakin sucks. Florida has been in play for 20 years and we mostly lose it, due to this cheating garbage

flamingdem

(39,304 posts)
24. The Florida seniors - maybe via AARP - need to be engaged!
Mon May 25, 2020, 03:24 PM
May 2020

DeSantis has been terrible and it's clear the repugs don't care about the elderly dying from Covid in droves.

We could peel off a good portion if we can get them away from Faux News for five minutes.

Celerity

(42,670 posts)
30. your maths are off
Mon May 25, 2020, 04:10 PM
May 2020
If Biden wins Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, loses Florida, he only needs to win one other state that Clinton lost to win.


is wrong.

He doesn't need to win anything else, as long as he holds the 2016 Blue states. Those 3 flips (WI, PA, MI) alone are enough.



In fact, he can lose ONE of either NV or NH and still win. He can even lose BOTH NV and NH and still win IF he flips ME2 AND NE-2.
He also can lose WI, hold the rest, and still win IF he flips BOTH NE-2 and ME-2. (Remember we lose a 269-269 tie as the Rethugs will have 26 (or more) House delegations in 99% of all scenarios, due to their WI and FL gerrymandering)


Win WI, MI, PA, lose NV



Win WI, MI, PA, lose NH



Win WI, MI, PA, lose BOTH NH and NV, but flip ME-2 AND NE-2



He also can lose NV, NH, AND WI, but still wins as long as he flips AZ plus ONE of ME-2 or NE-2


flips ME-2, loses NE-2




flips NE-2, loses ME-2


Brainfodder

(6,423 posts)
33. By November if he wins 1 state, I will be surprised?
Mon May 25, 2020, 05:16 PM
May 2020

#1 Corrupt AF and most sensible people know it and will make a very reasonable effort to vote against that, and we out number the rest!

#2 Can't ignore all the deaths and by then 90% of citizens that can vote will be within 3 steps of someone who has died from Covid-19?

Don't need a longer list?




Yavin4

(35,357 posts)
34. Biden's win code: Hillary states + PA-WI-MI
Mon May 25, 2020, 05:20 PM
May 2020

That's his default path to the presidency. Force Trump's campaign to use it resources to hold onto FLA, AZ, and GA.

Celerity

(42,670 posts)
36. I feel better about AZ atm than WI, WI is so fucking corrupt, so are NC and GA
Mon May 25, 2020, 05:40 PM
May 2020

my 'a gun to my head' map atm

we can lose FL or FL plus AZ, or AZ plus PA (NV and NH are more solid than FL, AZ, or PA IMHO) and still win

we can lose AZ, PA and either NV or NH (not both) and still win, as long as we win FL, even if we flip nothing else on the map

Yavin4

(35,357 posts)
38. PA-Wi-MI all have Dem governors. AZ has a Republican governor.
Mon May 25, 2020, 05:49 PM
May 2020

I don't feel great about any state with a Republican governor with the exceptions of MD and MASS.

Celerity

(42,670 posts)
39. WI's governor is neutered by ultra RW Assembly, Senate, and WI Supreme Court, plus Milwaukee
Mon May 25, 2020, 06:23 PM
May 2020

A-A's are the hardest to GOTV out of all the big Rust Belt cities.

We can lose AZ, WI, PA and either NH or NV and still win anyway.

FL is a massive key. So is MI, and then just one of NV or NH

Win those 3, Trump is done

No realistic path

We can lose ALL of NE-2, ME-2, AZ, TX, KS, WI, PA, NC, GA, IN, OH, IA, MO, AK, and one of NV or NH and still win

there is no chance we win FL and yet lose VA

and no chance we win MI yet lose MN

CO and NM are even more in the Blue column









Yavin4

(35,357 posts)
47. Do not count on FLA. It's going to Trump no matter what.
Mon May 25, 2020, 09:26 PM
May 2020

DeSantis will steal the ballots himself if need be. FLA is the most corrupt state in the union.

Drahthaardogs

(6,843 posts)
35. If/when Biden wins PA, MI, and WI, it is all but over for Trump
Mon May 25, 2020, 05:32 PM
May 2020

If you see NC go to Biden early in the night, its all over but the crying for the Trumpster.

DFW

(54,057 posts)
37. Not quite
Mon May 25, 2020, 05:44 PM
May 2020

If Biden wins Florida, and Florida ACKNOWLEDGES that Biden won Florida, THEN you can say game over.

If that seems contradictory, ask Al Gore what I meant.....

pecosbob

(7,511 posts)
41. Doesn't your OP go on to contradict your premise?
Mon May 25, 2020, 08:01 PM
May 2020

"If Trump wins Florida it's over"...but then he also has to win another state, so then, by definition, it's not 'over.'

Anyway, my impression is that Trump has to win all of those swing states mentioned to triumph...Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, and he still would have to take a state that went blue last time.

GulfCoast66

(11,949 posts)
44. Obama won Florida twice.
Mon May 25, 2020, 08:57 PM
May 2020

Biden will win here. Especially with an African American female on the ticket.

 

zak247

(251 posts)
51. Needs to win Pennsylvania too
Tue May 26, 2020, 01:07 AM
May 2020

Actually Florida 29 elec votes plus Pennsylvania 20 elec votes would put him over early on election day.

Hillary had 232 plus 49 = 281 at least and that would win. So if Biden wins all of Hillary states plus Fl and Penn Biden wins with 281 elec college votes at least

Of course assuming he wins all of Hillary states( 232) then if he gets Wisconsin Ohio, Michigan, and Pennsylvania and Florida its much bigger

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