Monday 10/22 Today's GOTV Good news update thread It is still possible to take the Senate.

[grantcart]

1) Everything is still in play. Our strong showing in the House simply means that we have more Republican incumbents that are in seats we can take.

The Senate is still in play. Even North Dakota is still in play. Cramer polls consistently at 50% Heitkamp at 42% with large MOE and 8% undecideds. Wouldn't put it in the win column but we haven't lost in North Dakota. John Ralston had a county by county analysis on MSNBC where he detailed why it is much closer in ND than people give credit for it. Ralston (who picked Reid when the polls had him losing) had a very specific analysis of why ND polls are less reliable than other states. He also credits Heitkamp for being very effective in closing in the rural areas where she came from. He didn't say that she was leading but he said that she was still in the game.


2) Nevada Perhaps the best Democratic GOTV effort on a per capita basis has been unleashed and is rolling

The polls in NV are basically tied. Its going to be down to who has better GOTV
https://www.270towin.com/2018-senate-polls/nevada/

The machine that beat the polls that showed that Harry Reid was losing is back in full operation:

https://www.thedailybeast.com/harry-reids-political-machine-roars-again-in-nevada-with-an-assist-from-trump?ref=wrap

(the Culinary Union) is a powerhouse in Nevada politics and, as it does every cycle, it’s embarked on an ambitious Get Out The Vote operation in the closing weeks of this election. Currently, it has 250 members in the field, working 10-12 hour days six days a week, which they say will increase to 300 in the final days before the election—figures that match what it has done in presidential years, according to Bethany Khan, communications director for the union

Ralston says that "Another big turnout day in Clark. In 2014, it was about 7,500 on Day Two. As of 3 PM today, 17,000 had turned out. Going to be three or four times last midterm.

3) Florida: A million votes are in already and the polls look strong

https://www.270towin.com/2018-senate-polls/florida/

The most reliable polls show Nelson moving to a 4-5% lead but Florida is always within 1-2% in heavily contested state wide elections. We need a high turnout to win.
A total of 55,640 mail-in ballots have already been cast in Broward County, 28,617 in Palm Beach County and 71,152 in Miami-Dade.

https://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/politics/fl-ne-early-voting-starts-20181021-story.html

Almost 1 million people have already voted in Florida’s midterm elections, and those numbers are expected to rise with early voting just beginning today.

More than 930,000 mail-in ballots have been cast for the Nov. 6 election, compared with 1.8 million for the entire midterm election in 2014, according to the state’s Division of Elections.

4) Tennessee Blackburn's Kavanaugh bounce is going away

The last 3 polls show Blackburn's numbers going down. The latest poll by Vanderbilt shows Bredesen up by 1%

https://www.270towin.com/2018-senate-polls/tennessee/

The good/bad news is that TN is nearly last in the country in election turnout.

https://www.tennessean.com/story/news/politics/2018/08/27/tennessee-voter-registration-turnout-panel/1115860002/

The party that is the most motivated and the most organized is going to win TN. As Bredesen has won state wide campaigns he should be the most organized and Dems are the most motivated.

5) AZ Sinema appears to hold her lead


https://www.270towin.com/2018-senate-polls/arizona/

The DSCC and MoveOn have made a huge investment in GOTV along with the AFL CIO. There are over 40 full time GOTV staffers from DSCC and MoveOn in AZ. The action in Tucson has been robust. Friends in Phoenix say it is less. Its hard to for me to judge because I am on the inside and every campaign beside President Obama's that I have worked on has underperformed, lol.

We should win but it could be close. AZ 2 is going to flip to blue. The Senate could come down to a few hundred votes.

6) Missouri is tied

This should have been an easy pick up for the GOP but the polling could not be closer, and it hasn't moved much, especially if you compare poll to poll. No word on early voting. Perhaps the best variable in Missouri is that the GOP has consistently underestimated McCaskill

https://www.270towin.com/2018-senate-polls/missouri/

7) Texas, something big is happening in Texas

The polls in Texas show us down 6% but there is one critical problem with these polls, they are based on models that show low performance by the young and Latino voters in past elections. This isn't an ideological war in Texas it is a leadership/personality war. A very small change in the modelling will put Beto on top.

https://www.270towin.com/2018-senate-polls/texas/

Four years ago only 54% of registered voters voted in the off year election. We simply need moderate increase in Democratic voters and a swing of independents and disenchanted Republicans to make up the 5-6% in the polls.



We currently have 49 Senate seats. If we accept the positive polls in FL, WV, MT, NJ and Ohio as likely wins we end up with 3 Dem states that are real toss ups or likely loss:

If we put IN ND or MI into toss up or lean Republican then we have 46 Senate seats needing 5 to make 51.

The Rep/Dem toss up "pool" then has 7 seats for us to make 5. Those 7 are: AZ ND NV IN MI TN TX

We look like we have a good chance in MI, NV, IN and AZ. If we take those then we there are 3 seats to make one:

ND, TX, TN

If we lose MI, NV, IN or AZ then we would need to take 2 out of the 3 longshot states.

It is a long shot but the Senate is still in play.

Its like drawing to an inside straight.

Or it is less likely than if you asked pollsters 12 years ago what are the odds we could elect someone by the name of Barack Hussein Obama to be President of the United States.

[BigmanPigman]

1. That IS positive news...it could happen!