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July 23
At Las Vegas (HBO): Amir Khan vs. Zab Judah, 12 rounds, WBA/IBF junior welterweight unification.
Tonight at 10 pm/est, HBO will be featuring a Jr. Welterweight title unification bout. HBO's original intent was to have a show-down between Amir Khan and undefeated Timothy Bradley – who most recently unified two other titles in that weight class, but promotional and contractual issues could not be settled. Hence Khan, who is not only willing but eager to fight the best in competition in the division, opted to meet Zab “Super” Judah.
Khan, at 24, is nine years younger than Judah. At 5' 10”, he has a two-and-a-half inch height advantage. But Judah's 72” reach provides him a one inch advantage.
Khan's record is 25-1. He has won 17 knockouts, and his lone defeat was by knockout. He has a 65% knockout percentage, which is an accurate measure of his solid punching power. Judah is 41-6; he has scored 28 knockouts, and been stopped twice. He has a 57% knockout percentage. While he has more “one punch” power than Khan, he has fought a higher quality of opposition over his longer career, which translates to less knockouts.
Khan and Judah were both outstanding amateur boxers. Khan turned pro in 2005; Zab in 1996. Khan has 124 rounds of professional experience; Judah has 281. Tonight's bout is a classic example of a “crossroads fight”: it is Khan's biggest test to date – possibly a more dangerous test than Bradley would have posed; Judah has been in four “big” fights before, though he lost three of them.
Khan's rise to the top seemed inevitable. He was one of the best amateurs in the world, and was on the way to a title shot when he took a tune-up fight against an unknown South American, Breidis Prescott. However, Prescott (19-0) caught Khan cold in the first round, and scored a devastating knockout. This prompted Khan to secure Freddie Roach as his trainer.
Two fights later, Khan won a title by taking a six round “technical decision” over aging Marco Antonio Barrera (65-6). An accidental butt had opened a cut on Barrera, causing the fight to go to the score cards early.
Khan has defended that title five times since. In December of 2010, he won a decision over tough Marco Maidana, in a fight in which both men were seriously hurt. It was the boxing writers association's “Fight of the Year.”
More recently, Khan won a six round technical decision over Paul McCloskey. Although Khan was winning every round, he had trouble hitting his opponent with clean shots. McCloskey's upper-body movement appeared to frustrate Khan, up until the butt ended the fight.
Zab Judah was an exceptional amateur boxer. By the time he was 16, he was sparring the legendary champion Pernell Whitaker. The young southpaw gained national attention in his quick rise in the professional ranks, as he displayed outstanding hand and foot speed, uncanny defensive skills, and explosive punching power. In June of 1998, he decisioned tough Micky Ward on national television, in what I consider his most impressive victory.
Ward said that Judah was so fast that no matter how hard he tried to time him, by the time Mick got a punch off, Zab was half-way across the ring. In fact, in twelve rounds, Ward only landed one meaningful punch – a left hook to the body that hurt Judah late in the bout. The impressive win appears to have had a downside for the young star: it fueled an arrogance that would both define and damage Judah's career for years to come.
In a 2001 title unification bout, Zab displayed awesome skills and almost took out Kostya Tszyu in the first round. He came out overconfident in the second, and took an unnecessary risk that resulted in his being stopped in the second by his dangerous foe.
In 2005, he knocked out undefeated welterweight champion Cory Spinks in nine rounds. Again, his arrogance proved his undoing. He was upset by Carlos Baldomir in a title defense he took too lightly. Then, in a short period, he would lose to Floyd Mayweather, Jr., Miguel Cotto, and Joshua Clottey.
Against Floyd, Judah won three of the first five rounds, before tiring out. He would hurt Cotto badly in the first round, before a series of purposeful low blows by Cotto changed the outcome. Against Clottey – who “sucked weight” to make the welterweight limit, and re-hydrated to enter the ring three weight classes larger – Zab came to recognize he needed to drop back down to the junior welterweight division.
Judah has won five bouts in a row at jr. welterweight. More, he recently had Pernell Whitaker join his training camp. I was not surprised by this. A few years back, I met Whitaker at the Boxing Hall of Fame, and he spoke very highly of Judah. Yet he has said that he wanted to know that Zab had matured as a person, before he would work with him as a fighter.
Khan is appropriately the betting favorite tonight. If he wins tonight and can't secure a bout with Bradley, he will be moving up to welterweight. But both he and Freddie Roach are entirely focused on tonight's bout. It poses some very real risks.
In interviews, Khan has said that Roach has warned him that Judah is most dangerous when he gets an opponent confident enough to throw lots of punches. Zab's head is an inviting target, although he looks much easier to hit than he actually is. When an opponent misses a punch, Judah has the ability to make him pay with fast, hard counter-punches. And he has enough power to take out any junior welterweight that he catches.
Look for Khan to use the double-jab. After the McCloskey fight, I'm sure that Freddie has focused on the benefits of landing the jab to the chest of an opponent with good upper-body movement. It lands at a much higher percentage, and more importantly, will take the opponent off balance for at least the split-second required for the right cross to find its target.
Look for Zab to stay low in a crouch as he moves in from the side. He should go to Khan's body. This will result in one of two things: either Khan will have to lower his guard, or he will have to get lower himself. Either could create vulnerabilities in his defense.
It should be a good fight. There is a lot of pressure going in, and Zab does have a history of not responding to pressure in the most mature of manners. He may try to intimidate his less experienced opponent. The referee, Vic Drakulich, is a good choice for controlling the fight.
Common sense suggests Khan should win. But I think that Judah has a very gtood chance for pulling off the upset. Enjoy the fight!
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