Obama with a chance in Texas..but only against Palin

[sonias]

public Policy Polling 1/21/11
Obama with a chance in Texas..but only against Palin

2012 could be the year Democrats are finally competitive for President in Texas...but only if the Republicans nominate Sarah Palin.

There are vast differences in how the various different potential GOP contenders fare against Barack Obama in Texas. Mike Huckabee is very popular in the state and would defeat Obama by 16 points, a more lopsided victory than John McCain had there in 2008. Mitt Romney is also pretty well liked and has a 7 point advantage over the President in an early hypothetical contest, a closer margin than the state had last time around but still a pretty healthy lead. A plurality of voters have an unfavorable opinion of Newt Gingrich but he would lead Obama by a 5 point margin nonetheless. It's a whole different story with Palin though. A majority of Texas voters have an unfavorable opinion of her and she leads the President by just a single point in a hypothetical contest.

Part of the reason Obama looks like he could be competitive against the right Republican opponent is that his position in the state has improved. 42% of voters approve of the job he's doing to 55% who disapprove. His average approval rating in 4 surveys conducted in PPP over the course of 2010 was 38% so he's seeing the same sort of uptick in his numbers there that he's seeing nationally right now.

The other reason for Obama's closeness is the weakness of the Republican candidate field. He'd have no shot against a GOP nominee that voters in the state like. Huckabee's favorability rating is a 51/30 spread and he blows Obama out of the water. But none of the other GOP hopefuls come close to matching that appeal. Romney's favorability is narrowly in positive territory at 40/37, but Gingrich's is negative at 38/44, and Palin's is even worse at 42/53. Texas voters certainly don't like Obama but for the most part they don't see the current Republican front runners as particularly great alternatives.

I know this is really early in the 2012 game, but it's fun to dream that Palin would get the nod and she would continue to be a drag on the repuke party.

:shrug:

[kjackson227]

1. Wish the RepubliCONS had been more sensible in withholding their vote...

to her equally idiotic male counterpart...