Analysis: Iraq surge may be extended

[nodular]

This is what I have been saying will happen for some time, as my numerous previous posts (diary entries) show. AP also released a story today to the effect that "Sunni Tribes in Iraq Turn Against al-Qaida." This is an old chestnut that reappears on the Strategy Page website every 6 months or so. "U.S. officers say a growing number of Sunni tribes are turning against al-Qaida, repelled by the terror groups sheer brutality and austere religious extremism...In Anbar province, more than 200 Sunni shieks have decided to form a political party to oppose the terror group, participants said yesterday." Major David baker called this a "big turning point."

So the old "the surge is working" argument that I referenced in earlier posts has come back to life---after apparently being buried under massive bombing attacks paired with the symbolic penetration of the Iraqi parlaiment itself. Gates himself (in Iraq) seemed to be edging toward giving up on the surge a few days ago. But of course, Gates never believed in this approach in the first place, and was a prominent member of the "Baker group" that recommended rapprochment with Iran and Syria as the solution to the iraq problem right after the 2006 Republican election defeat.

But now it is clear that the "surge is working" crowd is giving it another try. Of course, this goes hand in hand with "schedule slipping." They must extend the surge out until near 11/2008. Because the only purpose of the surge is to elect a Republican president and congress by creating a termporary illusion that we can succeed in Iraq.

And they are not going to give up on this strategy easily. It is the last card the Republicans have to play. A very long shot---but their only shot.



http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070421/ap_on_go_pr_wh/iraq_troop_boost



"WASHINGTON - The
Pentagon is laying the groundwork to extend the U.S. troop buildup in
Iraq. At the same time, the administration is warning Iraqi leaders that the boost in forces could be reversed if political reconciliation is not evident by summer.
ADVERTISEMENT

"This approach underscores the central difficulty facing
President Bush. If political progress is not possible in the relatively short term, then the justification for sending thousands more U.S. troops to Baghdad — and accepting the rising U.S. combat death toll that has resulted — will disappear. That in turn would put even more pressure on Bush to yield to the Democratic-led push to wind down the war in coming months.

"If the government of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki does manage to achieve the political milestones demanded by Washington, then the U.S. military probably will be told to sustain the troop buildup much longer than originally foreseen — possibly well into 2008. Thus the early planning for keeping it up beyond late summer...

"Anthony Cordesman, an Iraq watcher at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said Friday that even if the Iraqis pass the desired legislation, it probably would take months longer to find out if it proves workable."

[acmavm]

1. Hmmm. I didn't take the word surge to mean a permanent thing, just some

'temporary' burst of activity above the norm.

[nodular]

2. Sure, they got people to accept it by saying the surge would be

over in 6 months. They have been extending the time line ever since. The confusion is not accidental, but planned.

[LiberalFighter]

3. Number of days US in WWII - 1241 --- Length in years - 3.4

Number of days US in Iraq War - 1494
Length in years - 4.09

Number of days bushwad has served in a war - Zero