Over the past week or so, the situation in Iraq continues to deteriorate rapidly each day. Before, then it looked like a temporary improvement on the surface. Though I realized the improvement was superficial, I nonetheless thought it might have a political effect. Now, the positive spin from the surge has collapsed to the point where positive spin on the Iraq situation is impossible.
Meanwhile, the poker hand between Bush and Congress over the war funding bill moves toward its denouement. There was an article in one of the newspapers today, a statement from a Democratic legislator saying Bush would eventually get his $100 million for the war. I tend to agree. The question is, what will the next bill say? The Democratic hand has stengthened substantially almost every day this week. Only the brief rally by the Iraqi cabinet, with their special Friday session in defiance of the terrorists, strengthened Bush momentarily. Everything else has been a steep slide for Bush.
Today
, there is evidence that Sadr has---after suspending activity of his Mahdi Army for awhile, resumed large scale attacks on individuals. We don't know this, but it is implied by: 1) Sadr's cabinet withdrawal, 2) the Mahdi Army taking up arms agains US and Iraqi troops outside Baghdad, and 3) the steep increase in finding bodies of people shot to death, particulalry in Baghdad, after a steep decline such deaths at the beginning of the surge. This seems to indicate a termination of the primary benefit of the surge, which was really always more due to Sadr's support than military force.
In addition to al Sadr, there have been numerous protests in Iraq this week from various groups of Iraqis against the American presence and supporting a US withdrawal (see the actual articles I have referenced in my posts---though I did not quote these parts of the articles).
As I have said before, this strengthens the Democratic hand vis a vie the final bill passed. If the situation in Iraq continues to deteriorate rapidly in the immediate future (as seems likely) the Democrats will probably eventually get Bush to sign a bill coming closet to (but not quite getting) a commitment to leave Iraq. Overall, the Democrats---correctly I believe---continue to move with caution. A plurality of the American people, according to a recent poll, believes they are moving at the right speed. A small percentage (I think it is 23 percent) thinks they are moving too fast (out of Iraq). The rest think the Democrats are not moving fast enough. Sorry, I did not save the reference for this poll.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070416/ap_on_re_mi_ea/iraq
"BAGHDAD - Cabinet ministers loyal to radical cleric Muqtada al-Sadr quit the government Monday, severing the powerful Shiite religious leader from the U.S.-backed prime minister and raising fears al-Sadr's Mahdi Army militia might again confront American troops...
"The political drama in Baghdad was not likely to bring down Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki's government, but it highlighted growing demands among Iraqi politicians and voters that a timetable be set for a U.S. troop withdrawal — the reason al-Sadr gave for the resignations...
"With the political link severed, there are signs al-Sadr's pledge to control the militia might be broken as well. Forty-two victims of sectarian murders were found in Baghdad the past two days, after a dramatic fall in such killings in recent weeks. U.S. and Iraqi officials have blamed much sectarian bloodshed on Shiite deaths squads associated with the Mahdi Army...
"'When the driver approached the checkpoint and reduced speed, preparing to stop for a routine search, all of a sudden more than a dozen gunmen ambushed the checkpoint members and showered them with gunfire,' said a security official, who spoke on condition of anonymity out of safety concerns."
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